Burton: Momentum nothing but being good

In physics, momentum is defined as the measure of the motion of a body equal to the product of its mass and velocity. But is there another kind of momentum in racing?

Jeff Burton was asked that question this past Friday at Richmond, and his answer was somewhat surprising.

"I don't believe in momentum," Burton said. "... I think momentum is an overused word. It's being good at the right time.

"... I believe that the reason that we talk about momentum is because the team is doing all the right things and that makes their finishes good. They don't finish third this week and second next week because they finished third this week. They finish second next week and third this week because they got a good program going and they're taking advantage of that."

So is Denny Hamlin really carrying momentum from his dominating win at Richmond into this year's Chase for the Sprint Cup? Even though there were numerous stories to that effect, the statistics don't necessarily bear out the same conclusion.

In fact, with three finishes of 34th or worse in his past five races, Hamlin's average finish of 23.4 in that span is not only the worst of any of the 12 drivers in this year's Chase, it's the worst in the seven-year history of the format. Only Greg Biffle -- who stumbles into the Chase with back-to-back finishes of 36th and 32nd -- comes close, with a five-race average finish of 20.8.

If momentum were a factor, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch should be the ones most mentioned. Edwards' five-race average finish is 6.4, with Busch (6.8) close behind.

And that's where Burton's views on momentum come into play.

Since the Chase format was instituted in 2004, carrying momentum into the 10-race "playoff" has had decidedly mixed results. For Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson, it paid off. But for Busch in 2008, momentum was a fickle mistress.

First, the success stories. Stewart came into the 2005 Chase with five consecutive top-10 finishes, including a victory at Watkins Glen. And at New Hampshire, he picked up right where he left off, leading 173 of 300 laps and finishing second to future teammate Ryan Newman. His only misstep of the Chase came at Charlotte, where he finished 25th. But he promptly strung together four top-10s in a row to give himself a 52-point cushion heading into the season finale.

In 2007, Johnson parlayed back-to-back victories at Fontana and Richmond into a dominating performance in the Chase, where his worst finish in any race was 14th. His four consecutive victories, beginning at Martinsville, eventually overwhelmed Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer.

But Busch's 2008 nightmare may prove Burton's theory. Heading into that year's Chase, Busch had won eight races and his average finish in the previous five races was a sparkling 5.4. But disaster struck early in the first race, as a track-bar bolt came loose and made Busch's car virtually undriveable. He finished 34th, then 43rd one week later at Dover with engine woes, torpedoing any hopes he had of winning the title.

That same season, Hamlin came into the Chase with high hopes, coming off three consecutive third-place finishes. But poor finishes at Dover and Talladega put an premature end to his Chase chances.

On the other hand, Hamlin need only to look at Johnson's 2009 season for possible inspiration. Johnson had little momentum heading into the '09 Chase, particularly after finishes of 33rd at Michigan and 36th at Atlanta, giving credence to the opinion of many that the championship would be a wide-open affair.

Johnson made the critics look foolish, rattling off seven consecutive top-10s, including victories at Dover, Fontana and Charlotte. And even with a miserable day at Texas, he was well on his way to a fourth championship in a row.

So should you believe in the idea of momentum? Burton would rather put his trust in preparation.

"It is about being mentally prepared for this time of year," Burton said. "It is about being physically prepared.

"... Ten races is an eternity. A lot of stuff happens in 10 races. We're going to have to keep our eye on the ball to be able to move the ball and change our strategy, change what we're doing on any given lap, any given week, for any given race."

And a final thought from author Joan Welsh: "If you're coasting, you're either losing momentum or else you're headed downhill."

Related:
• Chase is on: Drivers' consensus is it's wide open
• Hamlin riding wave of momentum into the Chase