News & Media


Eight still have varying degrees of Chase hope

September 05, 2012, Official Release, NASCAR.com

Win and/or hope.

That's all that's left for eight drivers battling for the final Chase wild card in Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway, the 26th and last event in the Race to the Chase.

Who does and doesn't make this year's Chase for the Sprint Cup largely will be predicated on the success at Richmond of reigning Cup Series champion Tony Stewart.


Follow your favorite driver's chance of winning this week's race and making the Chase.


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Ranked 10th with three victories and a potential nine Chase bonus points, Stewart's hold on a seeded position is precarious. He clinched at least a wild-card berth in Atlanta.

Stewart controls his own destiny and those nine potential bonus points. He stays in the top 10 with a Richmond finish of 14th with no laps led, 15th with at least one lap led, and 16th with the most laps led. He's a three-time Richmond winner and finished third in April's Capital City 400 at the track.

Should Stewart tumble, all heck breaks loose.

Kasey Kahne, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon, trailing Stewart by 18, 23 and 35 points, respectively, go to the last race of the regular season with mathematical chances of reaching the top 10. Kahne, a two-time winner, and one-race winner Busch are in line for the two wild cards under current points.

Five more drivers -- Marcos Ambrose, Ryan Newman, Joey Logano, Carl Edwards and Paul Menard -- also go to Richmond with varying degrees of hope of qualifying for the Chase.

* RaceHub: Who's in or out after Richmond?

This is how the Race to the Chase finale shapes up for each:

Kahne: A Richmond victory clinches a wild card. If Stewart stays in the top 10, Kahne automatically clinches. If Stewart falls out of the top 10, Kahne will clinch a spot if a one-win driver outside the top 10 does not win. If Busch supplants Stewart in the top 10, and Gordon wins, Kahne clinches a spot by finishing 13th or better, 14th with at least one lap led, or 15th with the most laps led. Kahne has one Richmond victory and a Driver Rating of 86.6 (12th best). He was fifth in April.

Busch: If Stewart remains in the top 10 or if Kahne supplants Stewart in the top 10, Busch will clinch a Chase spot by losing 12 or fewer points to Gordon AND by losing 40 or fewer points to Ambrose. A win would guarantee Busch a Chase berth. Busch is a four-time Richmond winner (including April) and stands second in five key Loop Data categories, including Driver Rating (116.1). His average finish is 4.7.

Gordon: If Stewart remains in the top 10 or if Kahne supplants Stewart in the top 10, Gordon will clinch by finishing 13 points ahead of Busch AND by losing 28 or fewer points to Ambrose AND by losing 37 or fewer points to Newman. If Busch supplants Stewart in the top 10, Gordon would clinch a Chase berth with a win AND finishing 18 points ahead of Kahne at Richmond. Gordon has won twice at Richmond but not since 2000. He has a sixth-best Driver Rating of 96.2.

Ambrose: If Stewart remains in the top 10 or if Kahne supplants Stewart in the top 10, Ambrose will clinch by finishing 41 points ahead of Busch AND 29 points ahead of Gordon. A fifth-place finish in the fall of 2010 is Ambrose's best Richmond effort. His average finish of 16.1 is nearly six positions higher than his average start.

Newman: Newman can only clinch a Chase berth with a win. If either Busch or Gordon supplants Stewart in the top 10, Newman will be eliminated. Newman's one Richmond victory came in the fall of 2003. His 464 Quality Passes rank second.

Logano: Logano can only clinch a Chase berth with a win. If either Busch or Gordon supplants Stewart in the top 10, Logano will be eliminated. His best Richmond finish, fourth, came in the fall of 2010. He finished 24th in April.

Edwards: Edwards needs to win (a 47-point win) AND Busch has to finish 24th or worse (with no laps led) AND Gordon has to finish 12th or worse. If Busch or Gordon supplants Stewart in the top 10, Edwards will be eliminated. Edwards led 206 laps in April before a late-race restart penalty relegated him to a 10th-place finish. He finished second in the 2011 fall race.

DriverStartsWinsTop-5sTop-10sLaps LedAvg. Fin.
Kyle Busch15412138914.7
Jeff Gordon39215241,41314.7
Ryan Newman21151243711.8
Marcos Ambrose7012016.1
Joey Logano7011017.6
Carl Edwards1603844214.8
Paul Menard11000127.5

Menard: Menard needs to win (a 47-point win) AND Busch has to finish 34th or worse (with no laps led) AND Gordon has to finish 22nd or worst (with no laps led). If Busch or Gordon supplants Stewart in the top 10, Menard will be eliminated. Menard has finished outside the top 20 in nine Richmond races with his best finish, 13th, coming in April.

All other drivers have been eliminated from Chase contention.