DraftKings Rankings: New Hampshire

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.

*FPPK = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary

1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,500) – He can’t win every single playoff race, but, well, he could. At every remaining track, Truex should be the clear favorite. The track type does not matter. Truex runs up front, finishes near the top and earns fast laps and laps led points everywhere. (6.4 FPPK)

2. Kyle Larson ($9,500) – The New Hampshire July race was another case of Kyle Larson starting in the back and cruising to the front. He was inside the top-10 by lap 30. That’s fast a car and smooth driver. (5.5 FPPK)

3. Kyle Busch ($10,700) – Chicago was Busch’s race to lose. He wanted to shut up the non-Toyota-ers. That didn’t happen because once again the 18 team shot itself in the foot. A loose wheel and a penalty were death sentences in a near caution-free race. (5.5 FPPK)

4. Denny Hamlin ($9,900) – Not a lot changes in a couple months. Hamlin won the New Hampshire July race, so he should be ready to repeat. The only issue is that Hamlin won via strategy, not by being the best car. (4.3 FPPK)

5. Matt Kenseth ($9,400) – At intermediate tracks, Kenseth is not going to score a lot of fantasy points. At the short, flat tracks like New Hampshire, watch out. Kenseth led a significant amount of laps in both Richmond races, and he scored 15.5 fast lap points in the first New Hampshire race. (3.6 FPPK)

6. Jimmie Johnson ($9,600) – Seven championships are not the result of being the fastest. It’s the result of overcoming adversity. Last weekend, Johnson was slow in practice, but he was able to salvage the weekend with a solid eighth-place finish. (3.7 FPPK)

7. Kurt Busch ($8,200) – The top-five streak is over. Kurt Busch didn’t even finish inside the top-15. Before we write Busch’s playoff obituary, let’s look at numbers more closely. Kurt finished 19th, but his average running position at Chicago was 12th. (3.3 FPPK)

8. Joey Logano ($8,700) – Someone’s home track has to be New Hampshire, and Logano lived in Connecticut until he was 10. He likes the Patriots, so that’s close enough. Even with two career wins at New Hampshire, it will be hard to match the speed of the Toyotas. (3.1 FPPK)

9. Kevin Harvick ($10,100) – When fate dealt Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. a bad hand, Harvick was given the opportunity to lead some laps. Eventually, Harvick coughed it up. New Hampshire has been a great track for Harvick, but that was in a Chevy. (4.3 FPPK)

10. Paul Menard ($6,300) – Anyone that picked Menard last week will brag that they knew he was going to have a big week. There were four cautions last week, and Menard received the Lucky Dog twice. In Menard’s defense, he’s averaging 30 fantasy points per race over his last 15 races. (3.9 FPPK)

11. Chase Elliott ($9,100) – Chicago is the track for the No. 24 car. In his three New Hampshire races, Elliott’s average running position was 11th, fifth and 10th. This looks like a solid top-10 for Elliott. (3.8 FPPK)

12. Brad Keselowski ($10,200) – Twitter blew up when Keselowski begged NASCAR to strip Toyota of its speed. The only car that got busted last week was a Chevy. Without a favor from NASCAR, it seems Keselowski and the Penske Fords will not see the front of the pack anytime soon. (4.1 FPPK)

13. Ryan Newman ($7,200)RCR didn’t have the right setup last week. That’s what happened in the July New Hampshire race, too. Newman’s average position of 20th was the best on the team. Last fall, his average running position was 11th. Newman has three wins and 18 top-10s at New Hampshire. (4.4 FPPK)

14. Ryan Blaney ($8,000) – Statistically speaking, Blaney’s average running position proves he has been solid at short tracks. His finishing position tells another story (five finishes outside of the top-20). The tide is turning. Blaney has three straight top-20s at short tracks. (2.8 FPPK)

15. Jamie McMurray ($8,400) – Not counting Talladega, McMurray has started outside of the top-15 twice. At Dover, he scored 51 fantasy points. At Chicago, he scored 43 fantasy points. He started fourth at New Hampshire in July but finished 17th. He posted similar numbers in last fall’s race. (3.4 FPPK)

16. Daniel Suarez ($7,500) – If he doesn’t make a mistake, this JGR Toyota defaults to a top-15 finish. He’s recorded five consecutive top-15 finishes at short tracks including a sixth-place finish at New Hampshire. (3.9 fppk)

17. Danica Patrick ($6,100) – New Hampshire is the ninth short track race of the season. In the previous eight, Danica has one bad race. She finished 36th in the carnage that is Bristol. In the other seven races, her worst finish was 25th, and her average finish is 19th. (3.4 FPPK)

18. Erik Jones ($7,800) – In green races with very few cautions, the worst thing a driver can do is make mistakes. Jones spun out, he sped on pit road and his crew jumped over the wall too soon. Jones is talented, and his car is fast, but no one wins with that many mistakes. (4.1 FPPK)

19. Ty Dillon ($6,700) – Few cautions means few wave arounds and Lucky Dogs. That’s not a Ty Dillon race. Without the favorable yellow flag, Dillon finished five laps down. There could be enough wrecks this week for Dillon to hang around the top-20. (4.5 FPPK)

20. Austin Dillon ($7,000) – No one believes Dillon is going to win the championship, but he’s capable of advancing to the second round. It only takes top-15 finishes. Throw out the Bristol race, and his average running position is 17th at short tracks. (3.5 FPPK)