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Fantasy Fastlane: Fire up the favorites at Kansas
By RJ Kraft | Sunday, October 18, 2020
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 17-4
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has been the third-best car on 1.5-mile tracks this season with an average of 37.8 points per race. Over the last five at Kansas, he has scored the most points with an average of 44 points per race. My plan with Harvick at two uses left is simple – I'm going to use him for the last two 1.5-mile races left on the schedule – here and Texas.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 17-4
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has been the third-best car on 1.5-mile tracks this season with an average of 37.8 points per race. Over the last five at Kansas, he has scored the most points with an average of 44 points per race. My plan with Harvick at two uses left is simple – I'm going to use him for the last two 1.5-mile races left on the schedule – here and Texas.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 17-4
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has won the last two races at Kansas and scored the third-most points at the track over the last five races. When he's been on at 1.5-mile tracks this year, he's really been ON with two wins, five top fives and five races with 35 points or more. In the four other races, he has been on the pedestrian side. That said, the Round of 8 stacks up real well for him and I'm looking at him for all three races.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 17-4
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has won the last two races at Kansas and scored the third-most points at the track over the last five races. When he's been on at 1.5-mile tracks this year, he's really been ON with two wins, five top fives and five races with 35 points or more. In the four other races, he has been on the pedestrian side. That said, the Round of 8 stacks up real well for him and I'm looking at him for all three races.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: NASCAR's road-course master knows his way around Kansas as well. He has the second-most points at Kansas over the last five races there – an average of 40.2 points. He has the fourth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season and arguably has been the best week-to-week car in the playoffs as he has scored the most points. This is a strong play.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: NASCAR's road-course master knows his way around Kansas as well. He has the second-most points at Kansas over the last five races there – an average of 40.2 points. He has the fourth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season and arguably has been the best week-to-week car in the playoffs as he has scored the most points. This is a strong play.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex swept the Kansas races in 2017 and has six top-six finishes in the last seven events there. Over the last five races there, he has the sixth-most points. He has also scored the second-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season with a third-place finish at Kansas in July and a fourth-place run at Las Vegas last round. I like this play a lot for Sunday.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex swept the Kansas races in 2017 and has six top-six finishes in the last seven events there. Over the last five races there, he has the sixth-most points. He has also scored the second-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season with a third-place finish at Kansas in July and a fourth-place run at Las Vegas last round. I like this play a lot for Sunday.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: If you take Keselowski's Richmond win away, he has no top 10s in the playoffs. He has only the 11th-most points in the playoff races -- the lowest amount of any driver in the Round of 8. So, why consider him? He has the sixth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in '20 and the fifth-most points at Kansas over the last five races. He also has two wins at Kansas.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: If you take Keselowski's Richmond win away, he has no top 10s in the playoffs. He has only the 11th-most points in the playoff races -- the lowest amount of any driver in the Round of 8. So, why consider him? He has the sixth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in '20 and the fifth-most points at Kansas over the last five races. He also has two wins at Kansas.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has two wins at Kansas – both in the playoff race. The results since the second win in 2015 have been real spotty with just three top 10s and five finishes outside the top 15 in the last nine races there. For the season, he has the eighth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks. That said, I like Texas as a much better fit for a play next week and Martinsville as well.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has two wins at Kansas – both in the playoff race. The results since the second win in 2015 have been real spotty with just three top 10s and five finishes outside the top 15 in the last nine races there. For the season, he has the eighth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks. That said, I like Texas as a much better fit for a play next week and Martinsville as well.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Kurt Busch (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last four 1.5-mile races in 2020, the 2004 champion has four straight top 10s, a win (at Las Vegas) and an average of 36 points. His overall body of work at Kansas is so-so with no wins and just four top fives. However, he does have eight top 10s in his last 11 Kansas starts after just having four top 10s there in his previous 18 starts.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last four 1.5-mile races in 2020, the 2004 champion has four straight top 10s, a win (at Las Vegas) and an average of 36 points. His overall body of work at Kansas is so-so with no wins and just four top fives. However, he does have eight top 10s in his last 11 Kansas starts after just having four top 10s there in his previous 18 starts.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Alex Bowman (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman is quietly putting together a nice stretch with half of his top 10s on the season coming in the last eight races. He has five top-11 finishes in his last six Kansas starts with four top 10s in that stretch. That said, in the last five races at Kansas, he has earned the least amount of points (11th) out of the Round of 8 drivers.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman is quietly putting together a nice stretch with half of his top 10s on the season coming in the last eight races. He has five top-11 finishes in his last six Kansas starts with four top 10s in that stretch. That said, in the last five races at Kansas, he has earned the least amount of points (11th) out of the Round of 8 drivers.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2019 champion is out of the playoffs but is still a fantasy play to consider in the closing weeks of the season. He has just one win at Kansas but has nine top 10s in his last 11 starts at the 1.5-mile track. He also has the seventh-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season – more than Logano, his brother and Bowman.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2019 champion is out of the playoffs but is still a fantasy play to consider in the closing weeks of the season. He has just one win at Kansas but has nine top 10s in his last 11 starts at the 1.5-mile track. He also has the seventh-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season – more than Logano, his brother and Bowman.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones is the hottest driver not in the playoffs. He has scored four top fives in his last six races and has the seventh-most points in that stretch. Over the last five races at Kansas, Jones is the only active driver to nab top 10s in each race, and he has the fourth-most points in those races – an average of 37 points. He also has three straight top 10s on 1.5-mile tracks.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones is the hottest driver not in the playoffs. He has scored four top fives in his last six races and has the seventh-most points in that stretch. Over the last five races at Kansas, Jones is the only active driver to nab top 10s in each race, and he has the fourth-most points in those races – an average of 37 points. He also has three straight top 10s on 1.5-mile tracks.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has bounced back from his Round of 16 elimination with two straight 38-plus points races. He comes into Kansas with two straight top 10s at the track and average of 33 points in those races. His 1.5-mile record has been spotty all year – 18th-most points on that track type – but he's an option if you want to zag away from a full playoff lineup.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has bounced back from his Round of 16 elimination with two straight 38-plus points races. He comes into Kansas with two straight top 10s at the track and average of 33 points in those races. His 1.5-mile record has been spotty all year – 18th-most points on that track type – but he's an option if you want to zag away from a full playoff lineup.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has an 11.0 average finish in two Kansas starts, including a 29-point July race. On 1.5-mile tracks, he has scored the 12th-most points this season. Removing his 1-point day at Las Vegas last month, he has an average of 37 points in the previous four 1.5-milers. The risk is his Las Vegas and Darlington results last month indicate intermediate woes.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has an 11.0 average finish in two Kansas starts, including a 29-point July race. On 1.5-mile tracks, he has scored the 12th-most points this season. Removing his 1-point day at Las Vegas last month, he has an average of 37 points in the previous four 1.5-milers. The risk is his Las Vegas and Darlington results last month indicate intermediate woes.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Cole Custer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Custer scored a top 10 at Kansas in July and is coming off his first top 10 in seven races with a ninth-place finish at the Charlotte Roval. The rookie did win on a 1.5-miler earlier in the season at Kentucky, and his ranking of 17th in points on 1.5-milers is higher than Byron, Jimmie Johnson and Christopher Bell.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Custer scored a top 10 at Kansas in July and is coming off his first top 10 in seven races with a ninth-place finish at the Charlotte Roval. The rookie did win on a 1.5-miler earlier in the season at Kentucky, and his ranking of 17th in points on 1.5-milers is higher than Byron, Jimmie Johnson and Christopher Bell.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has been the best car on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 with the most points scored (an average of 44.4) at that track type. His worst result on the 1.5-milers came at Kansas this summer -- a 20th-place, 33-point effort. The bigger concern is the recent body of work at Kansas – four finishes of 20th or worse in the last five there and the 13th-most points in that stretch.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has been the best car on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 with the most points scored (an average of 44.4) at that track type. His worst result on the 1.5-milers came at Kansas this summer -- a 20th-place, 33-point effort. The bigger concern is the recent body of work at Kansas – four finishes of 20th or worse in the last five there and the 13th-most points in that stretch.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer's home track has seen him score top 10s in two of the last three starts there after just six in his first 21 starts. However, there are troublesome numbers for me: 0 (top 10s on 1.5-milers in '20), 15th (in points on 1.5-milers in '20) and 22.7 (average points on 1.5-milers in '20). He has yet to score more than 28 points on a 1.5-miler all year.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer's home track has seen him score top 10s in two of the last three starts there after just six in his first 21 starts. However, there are troublesome numbers for me: 0 (top 10s on 1.5-milers in '20), 15th (in points on 1.5-milers in '20) and 22.7 (average points on 1.5-milers in '20). He has yet to score more than 28 points on a 1.5-miler all year.
Jamie Squire | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick (P), Denny Hamlin (P), Chase Elliott (P), Martin Truex Jr. (P), Brad Keselowski (P); Garage: Erik Jones
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
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