Fantasy Fastlane: Heavy on playoff drivers at Homestead, Reddick’s chance to shine

We’re one race into the Round of 8 and the Championship 4 forecast already has a twist thanks to Joey Logano, who ended the regular season 15th in points. The good news for half of the drivers below the elimination line is that Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) is among their best tracks on the schedule. Meanwhile, the drivers above the elimination line will be vying for every point they can get to potentially seal a spot for the championship race at Phoenix Raceway.  

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MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-10

Slotting Larson here is about as automatic as the New York Yankees winning the World Series (wink, wink) this year. Larson stands above the pack at Homestead, despite having just one victory to his resume. The 2021 Cup champion has led at least 96 laps in four of his last seven races, including both Next Gen races. As long as the No. 5 car can avoid the sand barrels on pit-road entry, he should be a factor.

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree here. Reddick rivals Larson as the driver who can rim-ride the outside wall better than anybody in NASCAR. Racing within an inch of the powdery blue wall, won Reddick two Xfinity Series championships, and he has seen that success translate to the Cup Series with three top-five finishes in four starts. With Reddick’s struggles at Martinsville, his championship aspirations could ride through Homestead. 

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 7-1

This lineup is beginning to look a lot like last weekend’s suggestions leading into Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Byron scored his first victory with crew chief Rudy Fugle at Homestead in 2021, and he has three top-10 finishes in the last four starts at the 1.5-mile track. The No. 24 team is heating up at the right time, scoring top-five finishes in the last four races, their longest streak since the spring of 2023. 

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

OK, is this Vegas? Not exactly, but a lot of the same drivers that performed well in Sin City are also among the best in South Beach. Prior to last year, it wasn’t Bell’s best track on the circuit. Even well into last year’s race, the No. 20 car faded outside the top 20. But with a few adjustments, Bell soared to the front and locked up a Championship 4 spot by collecting the checkered flag. Arguably, Bell currently has the most speed in the series and will look to capitalize on that this weekend. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

If you’re into theories, then consider this: Homestead is the 34th race of the season, which will tie the deepest into a season Busch has gone without visiting Victory Lane (2020 at Texas). The No. 8 car has shown speed on intermediates this year, though they underachieved last weekend at Las Vegas. Prior to an 18th-place finish in his first Homestead race with RCR, Busch has eight straight top-10 finishes here. 

SLEEPER PICK:

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 45-1

Want to have some fun with your lineup? Can you guess who is the only driver to have the top five finish in both Next Gen races at Homestead? Waiting, waiting… If you thought of Allmendinger, you’re correct. Dating back to his days with Richard Petty Motorsports, the road-course ace has always excelled at Homestead. With Kaulig Racing’s performance in 2024, this is a risky choice, but Allmendinger can wheel a car around Homestead with five top-10 finishes in 12 starts. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 100-1

Outside of Dillon’s victory at Richmond, it’s been a disastrous season for the No. 3 team. However, he has cracked the top 10 in both Next Gen races at Homestead and soared to fourth in the finishing order in 2022. Dating back to 2016, Dillon has eight straight finishes of 12th or better in South Beach. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 12-1

We listed Blaney in this spot last year and he went on to have the best race he’s ever had at Homestead with a runner-up finish. For all you No. 12 fans, maybe that will apply again this year. But if we go by the numbers, that is an anomaly. Blaney has two top 10s in nine Homestead starts, with just one additional finish better than 17th. It’s highly likely Blaney will be in my lineup for the final two races of 2024, though.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

Sitting a distant 53 points below the elimination line, Elliott’s strategy must be focused on winning one of the next two races. That isn’t ideal from a fantasy perspective where every point matters. Then, take into account that Elliott has never had a standout race at Homestead – he has three top-10 finishes in eight starts and an average finish of 10.4 – and it leads me to thinking it would be a good week to sit the No. 9 car. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 55-1

The last time the Cup Series visited a worn-out track similar to Homestead, it was Briscoe who found himself in Victory Lane at Darlington Raceway in the regular season finale. Don’t count on that this weekend. Sure, he has an Xfinity win at Homestead, but he’s never finished better than 17th in three Cup tries.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. William Byron

Coming out with a bang this week, with the two Hendrick Motorsports teammates being a heavyweight bout. Both drivers escaped Las Vegas with solid points days and have good buffers over the elimination line. It’s very likely both drivers will also be strong this weekend, as we went over their respective stats earlier. Larson is consistently the best driver at Homestead, however, and gets the nod. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Christopher Bell

These two Toyota drivers might have different mindsets entering the weekend. Bell is 42 points above the elimination line after a strong Vegas performance. Reddick flipped on the track and rolled through the standings, and he likely needs a win this weekend to advance to his first Championship 4. Not sure if Reddick will score that coveted victory, but I do like him in this matchup for his boldness of running within centimeters – millimeters? – of the wall. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Martin Truex Jr.

Even though Blaney is listed as a driver to avoid this weekend, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the defending champion rise to the pressure, sitting 47 points below the elimination line. But he will likely be chasing the win. So will Truex, who would love nothing more than to feel the high of Victory Lane one final time in his last full season. Truex has had funky occurrences the last two Homestead trips, blowing an engine last year and missing his pit box while leading in 2022, yet he still has four top-five finishes in the last seven Homestead races. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Chase Elliott

Hamlin leads the way with three victories at Homestead, most of all active drivers. Elliott has been consistently in the back half of the top 10 at Homestead, pacing the field for just 31 laps across eight starts. Both drivers need big days on Sunday, but Hamlin seems to be a gimme this weekend.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin

GARAGE: Martin Truex Jr.