Fantasy Fastlane: Team Penske the team to beat in Daytona 500

For some teams, the three-month offseason flew by. Other teams couldn’t wait to return to the race track. The 67th running of the "Great American Race" is just days away on Sunday (1:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Daytona International Speedway has produced some wild racing in recent seasons, with six of the last seven Daytona 500s going to overtime. The fundamental skill on superspeedways remains the same though, as there is a crop of drivers who live at the front of the field at these types of races. With two stage breaks rewarding points, that’s a nice way to bank points. 

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can come play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season. 

RELATED: Sign up for Fantasy Live now! 

MUST START:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 20-1

It doesn’t matter what driver Penske has in its cars, their odds sky rocket on superspeedways. Cindric is among the best superspeedway drivers in the garage, adding a Duel win to his accomplishments on Thursday (his previous three Duel finishes were as a runner-up). He won the 500 in just his second attempt and has led double-digit laps in the last seven superspeedway events. The No. 2 team is my early pick to win on Sunday. 

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 12-1

It’s been a decade since Logano last hoisted the Harley J. Earl Trophy, but he’s in contention to win the Daytona 500 more times than not. Known for his aggressive style, the three-time Cup champion isn’t content being settled in line. He led the most laps in both Daytona races in 2024 despite failing to finish both events. 

MUST START:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 20-1

Per usual, Buescher flew under the radar in the second Duel race on Thursday evening, but in the closing laps, the No. 17 car was in position to win. Buescher is an elite superspeedway racer and is a recent winner at Daytona in the summer of 2023. If you want an RFK car in your lineup, Buescher should be the leading candidate.

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 14-1

Prior to Byron’s victory last year, HMS had been shut out of Victory Lane in the Daytona 500 for a decade. Since scoring his first career victory in 2020, Byron is the only driver to have multiple victories at the "World Center of Racing." The No. 24 car finished runner-up in the first Duel on Thursday and looked to have a car capable of competing for another Daytona triumph.

SLEEPER PICK:

Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 35-1

For a handful of minutes on Thursday evening, Jones thought he was the victor of the second Duel race. After seeing the replay of where the caution flew for a big pileup on the frontstretch, he didn’t feel good about his chances of being declared the winner. He does feel strong about his chances on Sunday, however, and he knows how to position his car late in superspeedway races and has a Daytona victory on his resume.

SLEEPER PICK:

AJ Allmendinger| View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 70-1

While Allmendinger isn’t afraid to voice his resentment about superspeedways, he steps up in clutch moments at Daytona. Dating back to 2017, he has top 10 finishes in his last four starts in the “Great American Race” and has placed sixth in each of the last two years with Kaulig. In his last seven overall starts at Daytona, he has a scorching six top-10 finishes. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Corey LaJoie | View stats

Rick Ware Racing, No. 01 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 100-1

Being one of the nine Open cars to enter the Daytona 500, LaJoie’s primary battle was just to qualify for the Daytona 500. He did so in grand fashion, finishing sixth in the second Duel race on Thursday. His attention turns to Sunday, where five of his 11 career top-10 finishes have come at Daytona, including tying his best career finish of fourth last February. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 14-1

New year, same pick. I feel like a broken record putting Larson here again because his confidence has grown exponentially at superspeedways. For one reason or another, he remains winless in 47 superspeedway starts with a grand total of nine top-10 finishes. Larson hasn’t finished better than 10th at Daytona since the 2019 season opener. Trust me, you will use Larson plenty this year, making Daytona an easy option to bench him.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 20-1

Reddick got a taste of victory by winning one of the Duel races in 2024, but outside of that, his resume is bleak at Daytona. He has a pair of top-five finishes in the summer race, but his other nine starts have resulted in finishes of 25th or worse. In six Daytona 500s, he has a best result of 27th. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 55-1

It’s a quite fascinating case study to see how well Suárez has performed at the reconfigured Atlanta, but he has struggled mightily at Daytona and Talladega. He boils it down to how fast everything happens at Atlanta, with a likeness of watching videos “on 1.5 speed.” Unfortunately for Suárez, Atlanta is next week, and his Daytona numbers are brutal. In 15 starts, he has 11 DNFs with a single top-10 finish. He also wrecked out of the second Duel on Thursday evening.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Joey Logano vs. Denny Hamlin

Since the introduction of the Next Gen car, Hamlin has lost a bit of his flashiness on superspeedways. He has a best finish of 17th in six Daytona starts in that timeframe. Logano is always in the mix at these types of tracks and there’s no reason to think that changes this weekend. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Elliott vs. Ryan Blaney

Neither driver had memorable Duel races on Thursday evening, both finishing in eighth position in their respective event. The mind jumps to Blaney here, but knowing his recent luck at Daytona, my brain tells me to take Elliott here who has a pair of top 10s in the four Next Gen races at Daytona.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. Kyle Busch

Since joining Richard Childress Racing in 2023, Busch has frequently contested for race wins on superspeedways. He won at Talladega in his first season with the team and narrowly missed out on victories at Daytona and Atlanta last year. Larson often runs better than he finishes on superspeedways, but this is a heads-up battle. Give me Busch, whose 342 laps led in the Daytona 500 is the most without visiting Victory Lane.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Bubba Wallace vs. William Byron

These two are among the best superspeedway competitors in the field. Hell, they finished first and second in the first Daytona Duel on Thursday evening. If we’re basing this off statistics, though, Byron has two Daytona victories, including last year’s 500, while Wallace has a pair of runner-up finishes (yes, Wallace clipped Byron on Thursday night). Hamlin was the last driver to win consecutive Daytona 500s (2019 and 2020), and it would shock nobody if the No. 24 team crossed the finish line first again. Byron is my pick, but this could go either way in a natural race. 

MY LINEUP: Austin Cindric, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, William Byron, Erik Jones

GARAGE: AJ Allmendinger

36 for 36:

Daytona is an optimal track to use an underdog, and among the biggest underdogs in the field is Cody Ware. In four Next Gen starts at Daytona, Ware has a pair of top-10 finishes, including a career-best fourth-place result last August. In those starts, he had a worst finish of 17th. It’s unlikely that the No. 51 Ford will earn you any stage points as Rick Ware Racing’s strategy is typically to hang out near the rear of the field to avoid any mid-race chaos. But when the pay window opens, Ware is constantly in the mix at Daytona.