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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Ring the Bell at Miami

By RJ Kraft | Friday, February 26, 2021
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.


PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin is a three-time Cup winner at Miami and was the dominant performer in last year's race – leading 137 laps en route to a victory. It's among his top-five regular-season tracks based on average finish (9.9). Over the last three races there, he has the most points. With tracks coming that aren’t his best (Vegas and Atlanta), I'm comfortable using Hamlin twice in the first three races.
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Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 6-1

Fastlane forecast: Fear not "Happy" fans, we haven't forgotten about Harvick. He is about to enjoy a stretch of strong tracks for him, and it starts with Miami. He only has one win there, but 11 top fives and 17 top 10s in 20 starts. His 7.4 average finish is his best at any track. If you are worried about his 26th-place finish there last summer, you shouldn't be – it was his first outside the top 10 since 2007.
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Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

Fastlane forecast: The reigning champ has the fourth-most points at Miami over the last three races – headlined by a runner-up finish in 2020. Elliott's 1.5-mile stats were up and down in 2020, but this track stands as his best 1.5-mile track based on average finish (8.0). I'm prioritizing some other uses this weekend, but there's nothing wrong with an Elliott play.
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Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano has held the lead with one to go and three to go in the season's first two races but has not come away with a win yet. Vegas may be a better bet for him next week, but his Miami record has been really solid. Prior to a 27th-place finish last year, he had five straight top-six finishes there, including his title-clinching 2018 win.
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Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: Based on average finish, Miami is Truex's best track left on the regular-season schedule. Prior to last year's 12th-place finish, he had a run of three straight top-two finishes at the track – albeit in title-race events. In his last six 1.5-mile starts of 2020, Truex had four top-four finishes. The question to weigh is: Do you value having MTJ more for road courses or intermediates?
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Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Early in his career, Miami used to be one of Busch's worst tracks. Now, it's one of his better ones as he rides a streak of six straight top-six finishes into Sunday’s race. Over the last three races there, he has the third-most points earned. For all his ups and downs in 2020, he had the fourth-most points over the last 10 1.5-mile races.
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Brad Keselowski | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Starting position has not been an issue for Keselowski at Miami with 10 straight starting spots inside the top 10. He has produced five top-seven finishes and six top 10s in that stretch. Those numbers are sound, but a save is more sound with strong tracks like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Atlanta and Martinsville coming soon for him.
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Blaney was one of the top cars if not the best car on 1.5-milers in 2020. I'd expect that to carry over to 2021 with pretty much the same rules package in place. He has only one top five/top 10 in six starts at Miami, but he does have the second-most points at the track over the last three races. It's that latter fact that leans me toward a potential play.
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Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 17-2

Fastlane forecast: When you think of Larson, this is the first track you think of due to his proclivity to run the high line. Despite that, he has not won a Cup race here in seven starts, but he has come close with three top fives, a runner-up finish in 2016 and bunches of laps led. The downside is he hasn't run much with this rules package. He's a high-risk, high-reward driver.
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SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: The latest first-time Cup winner has just one Cup start at Miami that saw him nab an eighth-place finish after starting 36th. The tracks where he finished well in 2020 will stand out as potential plays, especially as he sits in a better ride with better starting positions.
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SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Just sit back and watch Reddick rip around the fence Sunday. He did it to perfection for two Xfinity championships and en route to a fourth-place finish here in 2020. The second-year driver is in the choose-your-spots realm, but this is as good as it will get (along with Bristol dirt) despite the poor starting spot.
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SLEEPER PICK: Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

Fastlane forecast: Bowman isn't exactly a sleeper, per se, but his top 10 at the Daytona Road Course was an extremely quiet one. His Miami numbers have produced just one top 10, but he did nab four straight top 10s on the last four 1.5-milers in 2020 – an average of 40 points in those races.
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SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 40-1

Fastlane forecast: Based on average finish (12.6), Miami is Dillon's second-best track – only Darlington is better. AD is best at high-wear tracks. He has two straight top-eight finishes at the 1.5-mile track and six straight top-14 finishes. Over the last 10 1.5-mile races, he has the 11th-most points.
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STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 40-1

Fastlane forecast: Busch's last five starts at Miami have seen him finish with one top 10, two top 15s and two finishes outside the top 20. He has no top fives here since 2009 (11 starts) and just three top 10s in that same stretch. There will be opportunities with the 2004 champ starting at Phoenix.
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STAY AWAY FROM: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 150-1

Fastlane forecast: In nine Miami starts, Stenhouse has an average finish of 22.8 and never finished better than 15th. Those are fantasy numbers and trends to run away from with your lineup. There are spots to use him (superspeedways, Bristol dirt), but this is not one of them.
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STAY AWAY FROM: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: It has been a rough start to the 2021 season for DiBenedetto, and he needs some time to turn the tide. He has totaled five points and an average finish of 35.0 through the first two races. At Miami, he has no top 10s in six starts with his best result coming last year – 14th.
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson; Garage: Tyler Reddick.

Just missed the cut: Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman. The Truex and Elliott sits are a product of wanting them for road courses -- not their Miami numbers which are perfectly fine.


Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
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