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Fantasy Fastlane: Texas two-step of final Harvick use, loading up on Logano
By RJ Kraft | Friday, October 23, 2020
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 13-5
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won this very race the past three years. He has been the best driver at the repaved Texas – with an average of 42.6 points. He has been the second-best driver all season on 1.5-mile tracks. He's a must play this weekend even if you have just one use left. Remember, Championship 4 drivers don't get stage points at Phoenix, and Harvick is likely to remain in the title hunt then.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 13-5
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won this very race the past three years. He has been the best driver at the repaved Texas – with an average of 42.6 points. He has been the second-best driver all season on 1.5-mile tracks. He's a must play this weekend even if you have just one use left. Remember, Championship 4 drivers don't get stage points at Phoenix, and Harvick is likely to remain in the title hunt then.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Take away Hamlin's 2019 win at Texas and his numbers on the repaved track are pretty blah. He has five finishes of 20th-or-worse in his last seven at the 1.5-mile track. With numbers like that why would you consider the play with Martinsville and Phoenix on the horizon? He has the fifth-most points on the 1.5-mile tracks this year, and this is the longest race left at 501 miles. Play the studs.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Take away Hamlin's 2019 win at Texas and his numbers on the repaved track are pretty blah. He has five finishes of 20th-or-worse in his last seven at the 1.5-mile track. With numbers like that why would you consider the play with Martinsville and Phoenix on the horizon? He has the fifth-most points on the 1.5-mile tracks this year, and this is the longest race left at 501 miles. Play the studs.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano's Kansas win locks him into the Championship 4 – meaning he will not get stage points at Phoenix. That's OK since he has been very strong at Texas since the repave and long been solid at Martinsville – the remaining Round of 8 tracks. Get the stage points while you can with him. "Sliced Bread" has the second-most points in the last seven at Texas with an average of 38.4 points.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano's Kansas win locks him into the Championship 4 – meaning he will not get stage points at Phoenix. That's OK since he has been very strong at Texas since the repave and long been solid at Martinsville – the remaining Round of 8 tracks. Get the stage points while you can with him. "Sliced Bread" has the second-most points in the last seven at Texas with an average of 38.4 points.
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Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex has the seventh-most points on the repaved Texas layout with two clunkers during that seven-race stretch. He has been the third-best driver on points at 1.5-mile tracks this season. So what do you do if you have only one use left? I'm saving my final use for Martinsville, where he has won the last two races. That said, at two or more, I'd play him here as well.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex has the seventh-most points on the repaved Texas layout with two clunkers during that seven-race stretch. He has been the third-best driver on points at 1.5-mile tracks this season. So what do you do if you have only one use left? I'm saving my final use for Martinsville, where he has won the last two races. That said, at two or more, I'd play him here as well.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Since notching three top 10s in the first four races at the repaved Texas, Elliott hasn't finished better than 12th in the past three races there. Now for the good … Elliott has been the fourth-best car on points at 1.5-mile tracks and remains the most consistent week-to-week car in the playoffs. I like him at Martinsville and Phoenix as well, but he has been so steady it's hard to sit him.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Since notching three top 10s in the first four races at the repaved Texas, Elliott hasn't finished better than 12th in the past three races there. Now for the good … Elliott has been the fourth-best car on points at 1.5-mile tracks and remains the most consistent week-to-week car in the playoffs. I like him at Martinsville and Phoenix as well, but he has been so steady it's hard to sit him.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Kurt Busch (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: After a blown engine at Kansas, Busch is in essentially in must-win territory in the Round of 8. Texas offers him that chance as he is one of two drivers to score top 10s in every race on the repaved track (Harvick is the other). He has also scored the third-most points on the repave with six races of at least 32 points in those seven races.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: After a blown engine at Kansas, Busch is in essentially in must-win territory in the Round of 8. Texas offers him that chance as he is one of two drivers to score top 10s in every race on the repaved track (Harvick is the other). He has also scored the third-most points on the repave with six races of at least 32 points in those seven races.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has been the best car all year on 1.5-milers with an average of 44.5 points and only one race less than 40 points on that track type. He won both stages in the July Texas race and has been the fourth-best driver on the repaved track with the second-most laps led over the last seven races. Since his elimination, Blaney has had three races with at least 40 points.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has been the best car all year on 1.5-milers with an average of 44.5 points and only one race less than 40 points on that track type. He won both stages in the July Texas race and has been the fourth-best driver on the repaved track with the second-most laps led over the last seven races. Since his elimination, Blaney has had three races with at least 40 points.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: While I prefer to save Busch for the remaining races with the short-track package (Martinsville and Phoenix), the numbers suggests he is worthy of consideration at Texas. He has the eighth-most points on the 1.5-mile tracks this year and has averaged 39.3 points in his last four on that track type. Since Texas was repaved, he has a win and the fifth-most points.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: While I prefer to save Busch for the remaining races with the short-track package (Martinsville and Phoenix), the numbers suggests he is worthy of consideration at Texas. He has the eighth-most points on the 1.5-mile tracks this year and has averaged 39.3 points in his last four on that track type. Since Texas was repaved, he has a win and the fifth-most points.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Texas is Jones' third-best track of all that are on the Cup circuit. He has an average finish of 9.0 for his career and a run of six straight top 10s there. Since the repave, he has the sixth-most points at the 1.5-mile tracks – more than Truex, Elliott and Hamlin, among others. He is likely to be owned at a low total, which adds further intrigue to the consideration.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Texas is Jones' third-best track of all that are on the Cup circuit. He has an average finish of 9.0 for his career and a run of six straight top 10s there. Since the repave, he has the sixth-most points at the 1.5-mile tracks – more than Truex, Elliott and Hamlin, among others. He is likely to be owned at a low total, which adds further intrigue to the consideration.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's July win at Texas is a punctuation mark on his Texas repave record and record on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020. In the last four races at Texas, Dillon has averaged 31.5 points. He also has scored the 11th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season – the third-most among drivers no longer in the playoffs.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's July win at Texas is a punctuation mark on his Texas repave record and record on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020. In the last four races at Texas, Dillon has averaged 31.5 points. He also has scored the 11th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season – the third-most among drivers no longer in the playoffs.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's last four races on the repave have all resulted in top 10s and an average of 35 points per race. That is the fifth-highest total over that stretch. The hesitation for a play comes in his recent 1.5-mile races in the postseason that have produced a 15.0 average finish and just an average of 22 points.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's last four races on the repave have all resulted in top 10s and an average of 35 points per race. That is the fifth-highest total over that stretch. The hesitation for a play comes in his recent 1.5-mile races in the postseason that have produced a 15.0 average finish and just an average of 22 points.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has gotten his groove back since his elimination in the Round of 16. In the past three races, he has averaged 36.3 points, including an eighth-place run at Kansas last weekend. His repave stats have been a mixed bag at Texas – with two top 10s and, most recently, a crash-induced 37th-place finish. If you believe in his recent 2020 trends, he should have a good run here.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has gotten his groove back since his elimination in the Round of 16. In the past three races, he has averaged 36.3 points, including an eighth-place run at Kansas last weekend. His repave stats have been a mixed bag at Texas – with two top 10s and, most recently, a crash-induced 37th-place finish. If you believe in his recent 2020 trends, he should have a good run here.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: The rookie was the runner-up finisher in the July race at Texas. He has the 13th-most points on 1.5-milers in 2020. Texas is a 334-lap race, and he has tended to fare better in the longer 1.5-milers – eighth in the Coca-Cola 600 in addition to his second at Texas. He has been up and down since the Texas race, so there is quite a bit of risk but also the potential for a nice payoff.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: The rookie was the runner-up finisher in the July race at Texas. He has the 13th-most points on 1.5-milers in 2020. Texas is a 334-lap race, and he has tended to fare better in the longer 1.5-milers – eighth in the Coca-Cola 600 in addition to his second at Texas. He has been up and down since the Texas race, so there is quite a bit of risk but also the potential for a nice payoff.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski's Kansas run snapped a top-five and top-10 drought he had been in since his Richmond win last month. Since Texas has been repaved, he has just the 16th-most points and three finishes outside the top 30. While solid on 1.5-milers this year, I want to hold my remaining uses for Martinsville and Phoenix as Kes has been a beast with the short-track rules package this year.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski's Kansas run snapped a top-five and top-10 drought he had been in since his Richmond win last month. Since Texas has been repaved, he has just the 16th-most points and three finishes outside the top 30. While solid on 1.5-milers this year, I want to hold my remaining uses for Martinsville and Phoenix as Kes has been a beast with the short-track rules package this year.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman is a bit of a catch-22. His recent 1.5-mile stats are really solid – an average of 40 points over the last three at that track type – and he has been a pretty steady point-getter in the last nine races this season. The catch is his stats on the repave at Texas – he has one top five, four finishes outside the top 10 and an average of 20.8 points in those races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman is a bit of a catch-22. His recent 1.5-mile stats are really solid – an average of 40 points over the last three at that track type – and he has been a pretty steady point-getter in the last nine races this season. The catch is his stats on the repave at Texas – he has one top five, four finishes outside the top 10 and an average of 20.8 points in those races.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto has had some standout runs on 1.5-mile tracks this year – two runner-up finishes at Las Vegas and a third at Kentucky. Even with those, he has just the 14th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this year. His results on the repave have been a host of finishes outside the top 15 even as he has migrated to better rides in recent years.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto has had some standout runs on 1.5-mile tracks this year – two runner-up finishes at Las Vegas and a third at Kentucky. Even with those, he has just the 14th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this year. His results on the repave have been a host of finishes outside the top 15 even as he has migrated to better rides in recent years.
Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick (P), Denny Hamlin (P), Joey Logano (P), Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch (P); Garage: Chase Elliott (P).
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
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