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Fantasy Fastlane: With wild cards looming, go big at Vegas
By RJ Kraft | Friday, September 25, 2020
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won two of the first three playoff races, and that heater extends to five wins in the last nine races. So, the question is: Where can you maximize your uses of the 2014 champ? Las Vegas is one of those places, while the last two races in the Round of 12 aren't. He has two wins there and will start from the pole. He also has the second-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won two of the first three playoff races, and that heater extends to five wins in the last nine races. So, the question is: Where can you maximize your uses of the 2014 champ? Las Vegas is one of those places, while the last two races in the Round of 12 aren't. He has two wins there and will start from the pole. He also has the second-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: We are unconcerned with Truex's Bristol result, as that combo simply doesn't mix. Truex has two wins in the last six Las Vegas starts, and this track is his second-best one left in the playoffs. In the last five at this track, he has averaged 45.2 points. The 2017 champ has the third-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season. We'll be locked and loaded with MTJ on Sunday.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: We are unconcerned with Truex's Bristol result, as that combo simply doesn't mix. Truex has two wins in the last six Las Vegas starts, and this track is his second-best one left in the playoffs. In the last five at this track, he has averaged 45.2 points. The 2017 champ has the third-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season. We'll be locked and loaded with MTJ on Sunday.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has three wins at Las Vegas and has not finished outside the top seven there in the past 10 races. He also has scored the fifth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 and not finished outside the top 10 in a race at that track length all year. If you were able to save a use at Bristol, you can immediately put that found money in play at Las Vegas.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has three wins at Las Vegas and has not finished outside the top seven there in the past 10 races. He also has scored the fifth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 and not finished outside the top 10 in a race at that track length all year. If you were able to save a use at Bristol, you can immediately put that found money in play at Las Vegas.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Not only is Logano the most recent winner at Las Vegas, but it's also his best track based on average finish (8.0). He has nine straight top 10s at the 1.5-mile track, and he has averaged 48.4 points in the last five here -- most of any driver. Over the last 10 races of this season, the 2018 champ has the fourth-most points with an average of 37.9 in that stretch.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Not only is Logano the most recent winner at Las Vegas, but it's also his best track based on average finish (8.0). He has nine straight top 10s at the 1.5-mile track, and he has averaged 48.4 points in the last five here -- most of any driver. Over the last 10 races of this season, the 2018 champ has the fourth-most points with an average of 37.9 in that stretch.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott was a strong car in the season's first trip to Las Vegas, where he won both stages before a late incident took him out. He is boom or bust at Vegas -- two top fives, three top 10s and four finishes outside the top 25. Also of note, while he has the fourth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020, he only has the 14th-most points in the last three at that track type.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott was a strong car in the season's first trip to Las Vegas, where he won both stages before a late incident took him out. He is boom or bust at Vegas -- two top fives, three top 10s and four finishes outside the top 25. Also of note, while he has the fourth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020, he only has the 14th-most points in the last three at that track type.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch nearly scored the win at Bristol, so it's tempting to just load the lineup up with him. While he does have a win at his home track of Las Vegas, his overall body of work is up and down there. Take the last the six races at the 1.5-mile track: 15th, 19th, 3rd, 7th, 2nd and 22nd. He has the eighth-most points at 1.5-mile tracks this year.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch nearly scored the win at Bristol, so it's tempting to just load the lineup up with him. While he does have a win at his home track of Las Vegas, his overall body of work is up and down there. Take the last the six races at the 1.5-mile track: 15th, 19th, 3rd, 7th, 2nd and 22nd. He has the eighth-most points at 1.5-mile tracks this year.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney is out of the playoffs, but he still has fantasy value. He has the most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season with an average of 45 points and no one race total less than 33 points. His 10.0 average finish at Las Vegas is second behind Joey Logano, he has three top fives in his last five races there and was the fastest car in the first Vegas race this year.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney is out of the playoffs, but he still has fantasy value. He has the most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season with an average of 45 points and no one race total less than 33 points. His 10.0 average finish at Las Vegas is second behind Joey Logano, he has three top fives in his last five races there and was the fastest car in the first Vegas race this year.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Aric Almirola (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola has three top 10s in his last five Las Vegas starts. What is more interesting for fantasy players is he has four straight top 10s on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 and an average of 37.5 points over that stretch. He has also opened the playoffs with three straight top 10s -- one of four drivers to do that -- and averaged 32 points in that span.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola has three top 10s in his last five Las Vegas starts. What is more interesting for fantasy players is he has four straight top 10s on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 and an average of 37.5 points over that stretch. He has also opened the playoffs with three straight top 10s -- one of four drivers to do that -- and averaged 32 points in that span.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Alex Bowman (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Over the past three races at Las Vegas, Bowman has the seventh-most points among drivers in Sunday's field. He had the sixth-fastest car based on green-flag speed in the first race at Las Vegas this year. He is quietly surging over the last month with an average of 37 points at a variety of different tracks. He’s a solid use saver option if you are looking for one.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Over the past three races at Las Vegas, Bowman has the seventh-most points among drivers in Sunday's field. He had the sixth-fastest car based on green-flag speed in the first race at Las Vegas this year. He is quietly surging over the last month with an average of 37 points at a variety of different tracks. He’s a solid use saver option if you are looking for one.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon (P) | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon finished fourth in the February race at Las Vegas, and he has two top fives and five top 13s in his last seven starts. For the 2020 season, he has the 10th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks and has scored at least 26 points in seven of the eight races at that track length. The numbers aren't overly flashy, but they get the job done.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon finished fourth in the February race at Las Vegas, and he has two top fives and five top 13s in his last seven starts. For the 2020 season, he has the 10th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks and has scored at least 26 points in seven of the eight races at that track length. The numbers aren't overly flashy, but they get the job done.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: You know who had the second-fastest car in green-flag speed in the February race at Las Vegas? Byron did. He finished seventh in the fall race here last year and was upfront on the final restart in February before last-lap trouble dropped him back. Over his last three races at Las Vegas, he has the eighth-most points among drivers in Sunday's field.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: You know who had the second-fastest car in green-flag speed in the February race at Las Vegas? Byron did. He finished seventh in the fall race here last year and was upfront on the final restart in February before last-lap trouble dropped him back. Over his last three races at Las Vegas, he has the eighth-most points among drivers in Sunday's field.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: The rookie has earned the ninth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks -- more than Austin Dillon, Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, Bowman and Clint Bowyer -- drivers who are all in the playoffs. In his last four races on this track length, Reddick has averaged 39.5 points -- that number holds steady over the last three at 36 points per race.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: The rookie has earned the ninth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks -- more than Austin Dillon, Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, Bowman and Clint Bowyer -- drivers who are all in the playoffs. In his last four races on this track length, Reddick has averaged 39.5 points -- that number holds steady over the last three at 36 points per race.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Want a pick who is really off the board? Stenhouse is your guy, but there's a boom-or-bust quality on this pick. He has two top-six finishes in his last three Las Vegas starts, including a third-place run in February. That finish is one of two top fives he has on 1.5-mile tracks this season. His last two runs on 1.5-mile tracks? Finishes of 38th and 40th.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Want a pick who is really off the board? Stenhouse is your guy, but there's a boom-or-bust quality on this pick. He has two top-six finishes in his last three Las Vegas starts, including a third-place run in February. That finish is one of two top fives he has on 1.5-mile tracks this season. His last two runs on 1.5-mile tracks? Finishes of 38th and 40th.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Clint Bowyer (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Two major flags with Bowyer when it comes to this weekend. His Las Vegas numbers are not good with just one top five and four top 10s in 17 starts. In his last 10 starts there, he has only one top 10. His 1.5-mile results in 2020 have produced just the 16th-most points with no top 10s and no race over 28 points.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Two major flags with Bowyer when it comes to this weekend. His Las Vegas numbers are not good with just one top five and four top 10s in 17 starts. In his last 10 starts there, he has only one top 10. His 1.5-mile results in 2020 have produced just the 16th-most points with no top 10s and no race over 28 points.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: This weekend's hometown hero has the worst average finish among the playoff field at his home track -- 22.5. He has just two top fives and five top 10s in 21 starts there. He also has an uncharacteristic 12 finishes outside the top 20 at the 1.5-mile track. Much like with Martin Truex Jr. and Bristol, Busch and Vegas are not a good fantasy combo.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: This weekend's hometown hero has the worst average finish among the playoff field at his home track -- 22.5. He has just two top fives and five top 10s in 21 starts there. He also has an uncharacteristic 12 finishes outside the top 20 at the 1.5-mile track. Much like with Martin Truex Jr. and Bristol, Busch and Vegas are not a good fantasy combo.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Avoiding Hamlin at Las Vegas is partly to save him for the majority of Round of 8 tracks, where he has much more success. It is also because he has just been so-so at Las Vegas. He has just one top 10 in the last five races there and only has two top 10s in 17 starts at the 1.5-mile track.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Avoiding Hamlin at Las Vegas is partly to save him for the majority of Round of 8 tracks, where he has much more success. It is also because he has just been so-so at Las Vegas. He has just one top 10 in the last five races there and only has two top 10s in 17 starts at the 1.5-mile track.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick (P), Martin Truex Jr. (P), Joey Logano (P), Kyle Busch (P), Ryan Blaney; Garage: Brad Keselowski (P)
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 7 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 7 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
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