Power Rankings: Winless drivers who could break through in 2021

By Pat DeCola | Wednesday, January 27, 2021

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NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks the top 10 winless* drivers across all three NASCAR national series who could break through to Victory Lane in 2021.

*In the series they're competing for points in this year.

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10. Derek Kraus, Camping World Truck Series

2020 stats: 3 top fives, 13 top 10s, 11th-place (CWTS)
2021 ride: No. 19 McAnally-Hilgemann Racing Toyota
Comment: Still just 19 years old, the 2019 K&N Pro Series West title winner -- who, in 2018, beat Kevin Harvick on the champ's home turf in a race at Bakersfield -- returns to his 2020 ride and I suspect the young prospect will make plenty of noise. His best showing of 2020 came at Darlington (runner-up) and the crew chief that won that race for Ben Rhodes (Matt Noyce) will now call the shots atop his No. 19 pit box in '21.

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9. Sam Mayer, Xfinity Series

2020 stats: 1 win, 2 top fives, 2 top 10s (six CWTS starts); 5 wins, 6 top fives (in six ARCA Menards East Series races to win series title)
2021 ride: JR Motorsports, part-time
Comment: The 17-year-old, of course, already has a NASCAR win under his belt, holding off then-teammate and 2018 champ Brett Moffitt at Bristol last fall. We won't see Mayer until after he turns 18 in late June, but expect him to make quick work of the series once he suits up, landing in Victory Lane before leaves start dropping.

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8. Bubba Wallace, NASCAR Cup Series

2020 stats: 1 top five, 5 top 10s, 22nd place (Cup Series, No. 43 Richard Petty Motorsports Chevrolet)
2021 ride: No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota
Comment: Wallace is my pick to win the 2021 Daytona 500, so in theory he could be No. 1 on this list. If things don't fall into place for him in the season opener, however, expect 23XI to come out the gates prepared, but with some kinks to work out in the season's first few weeks. A late spring timeframe feels right for when a win could happen and — just saying — a nice, full-circle moment is there for the taking should it come at Talladega (April 25).

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7. Chandler Smith, Camping World Truck Series

2020 stats: 5 top fives (12 CWTS starts)
2021 ride: No. 18 Kyle Busch Motorsports Toyota
Comment: Smith set a high bar for himself after peeling off three top fives in four CWTS starts as a 17-year-old in 2019. He sputtered out of the gate in his first six 2020 starts (23.0 average finish) but got it together for the final six (7.0). He's much, much more the driver he performed as in the second half, and he could be a series title favorite this season.

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6. Chase Briscoe, NASCAR Cup Series

2020 stats: 9 wins, 16 top fives, 22 top 10s, 4th place (Xfinity Series, No. 98 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford)
2021 ride: No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Comment: There's no need to refresh your memory about how good Briscoe was in 2020; the image of him celebrating in Victory Lane felt like a near-weekly occurence. Given his talent level, determination and the sheer amount of road courses on the 2021 schedule, it feels significantly more likely that he gives the No. 14 its first win(s?) since 2018 despite his rookie status.

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5. Riley Herbst, Xfinity Series

2020 stats: 4 top fives, 17 top 10s, 12th place (NXS, No. 18 JGR Toyota)
2021 ride: No. 98 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Comment: Herbst had an ... OK season in 2020 before crumbling come playoff time. Still just 21, the team in its signing announcement equated him to former SHR NXS-ers Cole Custer and Briscoe, who each found a ton of success with this specific program. Any time a driver steps into a ride in which his predecessor just ripped off nine wins a season prior, you have to think some of that magic translates to the next man up.

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4. Christopher Bell, NASCAR Cup Series

2020 stats: 2 top fives, 7 top 10s, 20th place (Cup Series, No. 95 Leavine Family Racing Toyota)
2021 ride: No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Comment: Given how his rookie Cup season went, it's easy to forget just how dominant Bell was in both the CWTS and NXS ranks, with his 2019 campaign arguably being better than Briscoe's nine-win 2020 season. He now moves over to a more comfortable home in his old JGR digs, in a significant upgrade of equipment. It's only a matter of when.

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3. Daniel Hemric, Xfinity Series

2020 stats: 7 top fives, 12 top 10s, 17th place (21 NXS starts, No. 8 JR Motorsports Chevrolet)
2021 ride: No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Comment: Is this finally the year? Despite two NXS Championship 4 appearances and his 2019 Cup Series Rookie of the Year honors, Hemric has yet to win at any national series level. Now in arguably the best ride he's piloted in NASCAR — and full-time to boot — Hemric is positioned to become a force in the Xfinity ranks and the wins should start ticking off in droves.

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2. Tyler Reddick, NASCAR Cup Series

2020 stats: 3 top fives, 9 top 10s, 19th place (Cup Series)
2021 ride: No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Comment: Thirty laps led and a figure just shy of 10 top 10s in 36 races certainly doesn't scream "breakout potential," but the stats don't tell the whole story with Reddick. He's a driver you need to see race with your own eyes to see just how present the talent and willingness to be aggressive are. There were enough high spots last year to be extremely high on the 25-year-old entering this season, and it would be a tremendous shock if he were not able to win in his sophomore campaign.

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1. Matt DiBenedetto, NASCAR Cup Series

2020 stats: 3 top fives, 11 top 10s, 13th place (Cup Series)
2021 ride: No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford
Comment: This one has felt a long time coming. After coming so, so close before (the 2019 Bristol Night Race will stand the test of time in terms of NASCAR memories) and the continued partnership with Team Penske — who I anticipate will be the team to beat in '21 — it feels like DiBenedetto opens the season as the winless driver most likely to put an end to the career-long drought.

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