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August 21, 2024

Daytona Turning Point: Will unpredictability reveal itself again at iconic venue?


Here’s what’s happening in the world of NASCAR with Michigan in the rearview and Daytona (Sat., 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC) up next.

THE LINEUP ️

1️⃣ What will Daytona have in store as the next-to-last regular-season bout?

2️⃣ Which winless driver has the best chance to hoist the Daytona crown?

3️⃣ Inside the Race: Reddick’s winning moves

4️⃣ Just how good has Tyler Reddick’s points stretch been?

5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

NASCAR Cup Series cars race by at Daytona International Speedway.
James Gilbert | Getty Images

1. What will Daytona have in store as the next-to-last regular-season bout?

With the regular season nearing its end, Daytona will act as the penultimate race before the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs begin.

A wild, weather-filled race weekend at Michigan International Speedway saw Tyler Reddick conquer his Irish Hills demons and jump 10 points clear of Chase Elliott in the points standings. Then, there was the playoff bubble, which saw several drivers tally double-digit totals that could be all the difference in clinching a coveted playoff berth.

Next up is Daytona. And when speaking about Daytona, it’s best to be frank: Reputations speak for themselves sometimes, and the “World Center of Racing” is no exception. But in the case of 2024, Daytona will not act as the regular-season finale. Instead, the 2.5-miler will be the next-to-last venue on the docket.

RELATED: Regular-season title hunt, bubble dynamics jostled after Michigan

While momentum can certainly translate, it takes a certain kind of momentum to translate in full to Daytona, even if it is no longer the regular-season cutoff contest. From blistering speeds through the straightaways to the oh-so-daunting banking through the turns, racing skill can perhaps only take you so far.

“You can’t make all your own luck there,” 2023 Daytona summer winner Chris Buescher said at Michigan when speaking about the Florida track. “There is a matter of being in the right place at the right time simply by circumstance. Mistakes get made. Everyone is a little bit more desperate as it comes down to it. That race definitely has the ability to get a lot more wild, especially as we get into the closing laps. We’ve had these conversations there through the years of how do you run hard, be smart in the stages, try and capture stage points, but ultimately know that with 10, 15 to go, it’s going to get wild.”

But Daytona’s sheer unpredictability might have a benefit for drivers with sound superspeedway packages, because they’ll have the opportunity to leave a potential race-winning mark.

“Yeah, I mean, it’s definitely more in your hands at Darlington, but Darlington was one of our really bad struggle races earlier this year where, you know, Daytona is kind of that crapshoot race,” Kyle Busch said earlier this season at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. “But we seem to be really fast at the two-and-a-half miles, two-mile tracks, and so you kind of honestly might have a better shot of winning at Daytona than you would at Darlington.”

Daytona hasn’t seen a back-to-back summer winner since 2005-06, when Tony Stewart accomplished the feat. And for drivers looking to go into the postseason on solid footing or perhaps even clinch their playoff berth outright, anything goes at Daytona, regular-season finale or not. If anything, just expect to be surprised.

Talk about a reputation.

2. Which winless driver has the best chance to hoist the Daytona crown?

Although the sport has already seen 13 different winners this season, Daytona’s summer race could produce another.

Make no mistake, the Kyle Larsons, Christopher Bells, Denny Hamlins or William Byrons of the world — among other drivers to already find Victory Lane this season — have just as good a shot as any to prevail at Daytona this weekend. But for the pilots yet to win this season — and thus still at the mercy of missing the playoffs — the incentive to race well is all the more apparent.

Of the four drivers currently without a win in 2024 but above the elimination line — Martin Truex Jr. (+77), Ty Gibbs (+39), Buescher (+16) and Ross Chastain (+1) — Buescher is the easy layup. He won last season’s summer race, and while a driver hasn’t gone back-to-back in the Daytona summer race in nearly 20 years, the benefit of the doubt should at least be considered. Truex, meanwhile, maintains a hearty points lead, and his experience at Daytona overall is nearly unmatched — the 44-year-old’s 38 total races at the Daytona track are tied with Kyle Busch for the most among all active drivers. Chastain has only garnered three top 10s in 12 total tries at the track, and none of those top-10 results came during the summer race.

MORE: Updated driver standings following Michigan and before Daytona

There are, of course, other candidates to consider. There is Busch (-93), who utilized a two-tire gamble at Michigan to tally his first top five since Dover Motor Speedway in April. The Michigan finish additionally bumped the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet up a spot in the playoff standings, and his +26 gain was the highest among all bubble drivers. Bubba Wallace (-1), who fell below the elimination line after a 26th-place finish at Michigan, has a knack for producing at superspeedways, as his five top fives at Daytona — including a runner-up during the 2021 summer running — can attest.

The likes of Michael McDowell (-157), Erik Jones (-245) and Justin Haley (-260) have all won at the facility, with the latter two winning summer races there (2018 and 2019, respectively). And while Chase Briscoe (-115), Todd Gilliland (-151), Carson Hocevar (-165) and Josh Berry (-179), among others, don’t have prior winning history at the track in Cup, it only takes being at the right place at the right time to be in a winning position at Daytona.

In other words, there are an abundance of options, and every option is more than capable.

Chris Buescher, in the No. 17 RFK Racing Ford, does a celebratory burnout following his 2023 summer victory at Daytona International Speedway.
James Gilbert | Getty Images

3. Inside the Race: Breaking down Reddick’s winning moves

MRN’s Todd Gordon and FOX’s Larry McReynolds dive into the data from Michigan and discuss how Tyler Reddick came out on top.

4. Just how good has Tyler Reddick’s points stretch been?

A victory at Michigan last weekend officially placed the No. 45 23XI pilot atop the regular-season standings. Check out Reddick’s point gains over the last eight contests, dating back to Iowa Speedway in June.

RACEPOINTS BEHINDPOINTS POSITIONFINISH AT TRACK
After Iowa-646th22nd
After New Hampshire-605th6th
After Nashville-534th3rd
After Chicago-233rd2nd
After Pocono-153rd6th
After Indianapolis-153rd2nd
After Richmond-52nd3rd
After Michigan+101st1st

5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

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Fireworks go off at Daytona International Speedway.
James Gilbert | Getty Images

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