Here’s what’s happening in the world of NASCAR with Darlington in the rearview and Atlanta (Sun., 3 p.m. ET, USA) up next.
THE LINEUP ️
1️⃣ Some big-name stars missed playoffs, so who will play spoiler?
2️⃣ OK, but who’s got an edge among the title contenders?
3️⃣ Who will draft their way into the Round of 12?
4️⃣ The unlucky ones at Atlanta
5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
1. Big-name stars missed, but who will play spoiler?
More drivers capable of winning seemed to miss the playoffs than normal, meaning we could see several of them close the deal in the postseason and create drama.
The Darlington dust has settled and the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs field is set, but the story doesn’t end for those left on the outside looking in. Some of the sport’s biggest names are in unfamiliar territory, missing the cut for the 16-driver championship run after Sunday’s Southern 500. Yet, their impact on the 2024 season is likely far from over.
With a handful of surprise entrants — a pair emerging in the past two weeks alone — several superstars and preseason playoff locks were left on the wrong side of the bubble. Ten races remain in their seasons, however, and they’ll be hungrier than ever to make their mark on 2024 and could offer some potential playoff drama should they win.
Chris Buescher, last year’s breakout star with three wins in a five-race span of summer brilliance, narrowly missed the playoffs despite a strong late-season push and several close-but-no-cigar races. His near-miss at Kansas, losing by a mere 0.001 seconds to Kyle Larson, proved costly, not to mention his run-in with eventual Regular Season Champion Tyler Reddick in the season’s first Darlington race. Buescher’s prowess on short tracks and road courses makes him a potential spoiler, especially in the first pair of rounds.
This was essentially a race-winning team that wound up with, well, no wins through the first 26. It feels more likely than not Buescher will snag one the rest of the way.
NASCAR’s all-time winningest driver Kyle Busch’s absence from the playoffs marks a historic moment, ending his streak of playoff appearances that stretched back to before the elimination-style format was even implemented. Despite finishing runner-up in the last two races, Busch couldn’t overcome a midseason slump that saw an uncharacteristic 10 finishes outside the top 10 over 11 races. With his experience, skill and recent speed he’s shown, Rowdy remains a threat at any track, particularly at Bristol, where he’s perhaps the best in the field.
Bubba Wallace was one of the strongest drivers over the summer, but a lack of wins — a stretch that runs back to 2022 — saw his playoff hopes evaporate. He did seem to elevate his game to a degree this year, however, and strong past performances on superspeedways make him a driver to watch at Talladega, where he’s won before. His fifth-place finish at Atlanta, another drafting-style track, in February suggests he could play spoiler there as well, which would be a healthy heaping of bittersweetness for the No. 23 team.
Recent Championship 4 contender Ross Chastain’s dramatic fall from 93 points above the elimination line to 33 points below in just eight races was a shocking turn of events, and one teams will likely reference in future summer strategies with a focus on his lack of stage points. Something seems to be missing from the No. 1 team this year after meteoric ascension in its first few years under the Trackhouse Racing banner, but it’s not to be counted out yet. Known for his aggressive style, Chastain could be a wild card at tracks like Martinsville or Bristol, where close-quarters racing often leads to fireworks, but he’s capable of winning anywhere.
Past Daytona 500 winner Michael McDowell, fresh off his Indy road course win last year, seemed to have plenty of speed with three poles in the first 15 races, but couldn’t seal the deal this season on the tracks where he’s most viewed as a threat. There are still a pair of road courses and two drafting-style races, and he’d love to give Front Row Motorsports a fond farewell before shifting to Spire Motorsports next season.
McDowell’s Front Row teammate Todd Gilliland and Legacy Motor Club’s Erik Jones, while further down the standings, have shown flashes of competitiveness, with both viewed as dark horse playoff contenders over the summer before their hopes ran dry. Still, the arrow is likely pointing up on each for the rest of the season and beyond, and Gilliland’s improving road-course skills make him one to watch at Watkins Glen, while Jones could surprise at a track like Martinsville, where success is even more in the driver’s hands. (Toss short-track ace Josh Berry in there too, while we’re at it.)
As the playoffs unfold, these drivers have nothing to lose and everything to gain (not to mention a lengthy consecutive seasons of winning streak on the line for Busch). With no playoff points to worry about, they can take risks that playoff drivers might avoid, a vast departure from mostly racing to get above the elimination line in recent weeks.
The 2024 NASCAR season has already been unpredictable, and with this much talent on the outside looking in, the playoff races promise even more excitement. From short tracks to superspeedways, road courses to intermediates, the non-playoff drivers are poised to leave their mark on the championship fight, potentially altering the course of what’s already shaping up to be a uniquely memorable postseason run.
2. OK, but who’s got an edge among the title contenders?
Everyone appears to be gunning for top contender Kyle Larson, but even *he* is no guarantee to advance out of the Round of 16.
And now for the guys that did make it.
The 2024 NASCAR Playoffs are set to kick off with a bang at Atlanta Motor Speedway, marking the first time since 2008 that the iconic track hosts a postseason race. Known for its high-speed drafting since a recent reconfiguration and unpredictable outcomes — you know, like the literal closest three-wide finish in history — Atlanta is poised to set the tone for what promises to be an electrifying postseason.
Sunday’s race will be anything but predictable, particularly after the topsy-turvy nature of the past two races turned the playoffs on its head. Atlanta’s reconfiguration into a drafting-style track has made it one of the most challenging venues on the circuit, with an average of nine cautions per race and a record 48 lead changes in February. Opening the 10-race championship run with it could seed a high degree of uncertainty from the jump.
Though he didn’t win the Regular Season Championship, Kyle Larson enters the playoffs as the top seed and is generally regarded as the driver to beat this year in search of title No. 2, yet he faces a daunting challenge right out of the gate at Atlanta. No. 5 ranks last among the 16 playoff drivers in average points earned per race since the track’s reconfiguration … but perhaps there’s a reason for that. More to come in the chart below.
Despite leading 49% of all laps by Chevrolet drivers this season, an early hiccup — potentially not even of his own doing — could derail things for him in just the first race.
The driver who did win the Regular Season Championship, Tyler Reddick, is making his fourth straight playoff appearance but for the first time it would be a disappointment if he were to miss the Championship 4 rather than a surprise if he did make it. No. 45 leads all drivers in top-five finishes (11), top 10s (18) and has the best average finish at 11.15, shaping up to battle his fellow dirt maven Larson for championships for years to come.
It’s a stacked field throughout, however, and four of the six drivers with multiple 2024 wins raced for the championship at Phoenix in 2023, with one of them (Christopher Bell) looking to be the only driver in the series to make it there for three years running. The No. 20 Toyota driver still seems to be improving, too, and a first title this year feels entirely within reach.
But then again, you gotta wonder … one of these year’s has to be Denny Hamlin’s right?
Maybe it’s this one.
3. Who will draft their way into the Round of 12?
Kim Coon and Ryan Flores get you ready for the Round of 16 playoff opener at Atlanta Motor Speedway and tell you why it could be even tougher than Daytona or Talladega when it comes to superspeedway chaos.
4. The unlucky ones at Atlanta
If there’s anybody due for a change of fortune, it’s … championship favorite Kyle Larson, who has seemed to find every wreck in recent tumultuous races at the track.
| Driver | Starts | DNFs by Accident |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 5 | 4 |
| Austin Dillon | 5 | 2 |
| Chris Buescher | 5 | 2 |
| BJ McLeod | 5 | 2 |
| Noah Gragson | 5 | 2 |
| Tyler Reddick | 5 | 2 |
| William Byron | 5 | 2 |
5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
Power Rankings: Will Daniel Suárez be the first Round of 12 driver?
Paint Scheme Preview: 2024 Atlanta summer race
Five thought starters that prove the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs will be a rare breed
NASCAR betting: 2024 Atlanta summer race odds
@nascarcasm: NASCAR Beefdown, 2024 Playoffs – who’s got beef?
Kyle Petty hot take: 2024 Southern 500 ‘one of the most dramatic races I’ve seen in a long time’
How the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Grid Challenge works
Reddick edges Larson by one point for regular-season title
Larson on ‘bummer’ of losing Regular Season Championship by single point
Briscoe joins select group who’ve won regular-season finale to make playoffs
2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs field set
Analysis: Briscoe delivers at Darlington in heartfelt Southern 500 triumph
Three Up, Three Down: Drivers in focus leaving Darlington
@nascarcasm: Fake texts to Darlington winner Chase Briscoe
Updated championship odds following Darlington
