Here’s what’s happening in the world of NASCAR with Atlanta in the rearview and Watkins Glen (Sun., 3 p.m. ET, USA) up next.
THE LINEUP ️
1️⃣ Why does anybody ever doubt Joey Logano in an even year?
2️⃣ Wide-open road to a Round of 12 spot up for grabs at The Glen
3️⃣ Bubble trouble already for heavy title contenders
4️⃣ Left, right and center stage: Best 2024 road-course drivers
5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
1. Why does anybody ever doubt Joey Logano in an even year?
Joey Logano is, once again, in position to compete for a NASCAR Cup Series championship. Perhaps we should have expected this, looking at the calendar.
We really should know better by now.
If we’ve learned anything over the past decade in this ever-evolving sport of ours, there’s one constant — Joey Logano is a championship threat in even-numbered years, period.
Since 2014, when NASCAR introduced its current playoff format, the No. 22 Team Penske driver has made the Championship 4 in every even-numbered year — and literally no odd-numbered years — and it’s looking like he’ll have a great shot once again in 2024 after becoming the first driver to lock into the Round of 12 with Sunday’s win at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Logano’s even-year success is more than just a statistical quirk; it’s become a defining feature of his career, somewhat to his chagrin.
“I’m OK with it. I just don’t believe in luck ever or just weird things like that. I think it’s just a coincidence that it’s like that,” Logano said in his winner’s press conference Sunday. “I hope it’s right this year. We’ll see (smiling). It doesn’t just come automatic because that’s what the numbers have been and the pattern that’s been shown over the last whatever it’s been, 10 years. I don’t know. I hope it’s right, though.”
Despite his skepticism, the numbers don’t lie. His championship victories in 2018 and 2022 have cemented his status as one of the sport’s elite drivers — along with being one of just two multi-time champions and the only one in this year’s playoffs — capable of rising to the occasion when the stakes are highest, and the calendar year is the even … est.
And yet, for essentially the first full half of the season until his win at Nashville, almost nothing but questions surrounded Logano and the No. 22 team as they struggled to escape the mid-teens in the standings. Few out there were saying, “Look, it’s 2024 and Logano and Wolfe will be there when it counts, trust the process.” But here they are, still with a long way to go to crown a champion, but in the best position out of anybody right now.
But what about those odd years? It’s here that we perhaps encounter the concept of the “championship hangover.” After the champagne has dried and the confetti has been swept away, whether the title was won or not, Logano and his team struggle to maintain their championship form the season following a Championship 4 appearance. (Though, notably, Logano’s career-high win total of six came in 2015 … en route to a sixth-place standings run.) It’s a phenomenon not unique to NASCAR, but one that Logano and Wolfe have had to grapple with repeatedly.
Perhaps that’s just the ebbs and flows of professional competition, however; an athlete and coach pour it all into a particular season, complete the ultimate task or get as close as possible to it, and the emotional toll and lack of pressure the following year leads to a drop-off in performance. It makes you appreciate Jimmie Johnson’s five consecutive titles even more, in that context.
Whether Logano continues this trend and takes it all the way to fighting for the title at Phoenix remains to be seen, but it’s certain that he’s now at least one step closer.
2. Wide-open road to a Round of 12 spot up for grabs at The Glen
Atlanta flipped the postseason on its head and Watkins Glen could offer more of the same — though one team has a clear edge. For now.
As if opening the playoffs with a bang with Atlanta’s high speeds and high action wasn’t enough, how about tossing Watkins Glen International into the playoffs for the first time?
The Glen has always opened up the door to surprise winners — further emphasizing the chaotic nature of this year’s opening round — but the way Hendrick Motorsports has dominated that track lately initially made it look like this race would be a place to further cement its drivers’ solid playoff positioning. Instead, with none of its four drivers in the top four in the standings after one playoff race, and thus not technically on track to make the Championship 4, it’s a weekend where its talented stable will look to play some catch-up.
Still, Hendrick drivers will be the ones to beat, as the team has won the last five races at this iconic road course with three different drivers. It has also claimed victory in all three road-course races in 2024, and there is a strong possibility of making it a clean sweep with just one more on the horizon later on in the playoffs.
One of the most talked-about changes for this race is the debut of a fresh Goodyear tire compound, designed to incur significant fall-off during a run. This isn’t just a minor tweak; it could fundamentally alter race strategy in an event with already so many unknowns.
“It certainly will. I certainly think that it could definitely play a role in strategy,” No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin said at Playoff Media Day. “It’s been so straightforward in the past that you just want to get to those stage points and then you go ahead and pit. But certainly, if tires are going to matter like it seems like they might, it throws a whole new element in it and it’s not a huge gimmicky element because you have to strategize around tire wear. The driver plays a huge role in that, so certainly, hopefully, I’ve got my fingers crossed that it’s a race that’s going to be unlike any road course we’ve seen.”
Meanwhile, Championship 4 favorites and Toyota drivers Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell are the other drivers to watch — if Hendrick is usurped, it feels likely it’ll be one of those two. Both have finished in the top 10 in all three of their Watkins Glen starts, and each has shown to be among the class of the field on road courses. That said, it’ll be interesting to see if either of them will even be the top Toyota in the field, or if former WGI ace Juan Pablo Montoya, making his return this weekend for 23XI Racing, can pull off the “SVG Lite” and win in his first race after being away from the sport for so long.
Really, though, all season long, it’s felt like there was a particular narrative or driver expected to win on a certain weekend and it almost never winds up coming to fruition. The 2024 campaign has been one of the most unpredictable seasons in recent memory, with a new surprise around every corner.
And this weekend at The Glen, with corners that go both left and right, all we can expect is more of the unexpected.
3. Bubble trouble already for heavy title contenders
The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs open with a battle at the bubble after Atlanta, with some fan-favorite drivers hovering near the elimination line as the Round of 16 begins.
4. Left, right and center stage: Best 2024 road-course drivers
The final “classic” road course of the season is up next this weekend with the playoff debut of The Glen, and there are some interesting names at the top of the list among playoff drivers’ points earned in 2024 road-course races.
| Driver | Total points | Points per race |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bowman | 115 | 38.3 |
| Tyler Reddick | 110 | 36.7 |
| Ryan Blaney | 100 | 33.3 |
| Christopher Bell | 83 | 27.7 |
| William Byron | 83 | 27.7 |
| Ty Gibbs | 80 | 26.7 |
| Chase Elliott | 77 | 25.7 |
| Kyle Larson | 75 | 25.0 |
| Daniel Suárez | 68 | 22.7 |
| Brad Keselowski | 65 | 21.7 |
| Austin Cindric | 63 | 21.0 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 63 | 21.0 |
| Joey Logano | 58 | 19.3 |
| Denny Hamlin | 42 | 14.0 |
| Chase Briscoe | 38 | 13.0 |
| Harrison Burton | 34 | 11.3 |
5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
Power Rankings: Bowman makes statement showing at Atlanta
Paint Scheme Preview: 2024 Watkins Glen
NASCAR betting: 2024 Watkins Glen race odds
New tires, dramatic fall-off could change look of Watkins Glen playoff race
How mouthpiece data, driver feedback led to safety enhancements at Watkins Glen
‘Built for the playoffs’: Joey Logano, Team Penske shift into peak postseason mode at Atlanta
Playoff Pulse: Mr. Opportunistic prevails again as fellow title contenders falter at Atlanta
Daniel Suárez tries to focus on big picture following runner-up finish at Atlanta
Analysis: Atlanta strategy took the ball out of Denny Hamlin’s hands
How bad is the playoff damage for Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe?
Setting the tone: Drivers to win playoff openers
Montoya’s return, SVG highlight Cup entry list for Watkins Glen
@nascarcasm: Fake texts to Atlanta winner Joey Logano
Updated championship odds following Atlanta
