I’m not overly enthusiastic about betting outright winners for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Yes, I do have a handful of bets I’m making that I still think provide edges, but I’m more bullish on prop-betting opportunities for New Hampshire, specifically top-five and top-10 finish markets.
In fact, there’s one driver I’m targeting as much as I can, including two separate prop bets.
Let’s look at the props I’m betting for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301, including the driver I’m backing for a top-five and a top-10 finish.
I’ll be sure to post any additional bets I make for Sunday’s race on Twitter (@PJWalsh24).
NASCAR at New Hampshire Odds, Betting Picks
*Odds as of Saturday at 10 a.m. ET
Kurt Busch (+400) for a Top-5 Finish; (+105) for a Top-10 Finish
Not only am I on Busch to win at 31-1 odds, but I’m also completing the trifecta with bets to finish in the top five and the top 10.
It’s always a risk putting all of one’s eggs in the same proverbial betting basket, but in this case, I think the gamble is warranted.
In 2018, Busch led the most laps, ran the most fast laps and had the second-best driver rating, which is significant because the current higher-horsepower, lower-downforce short-track package that teams will race on Sunday is much more similar to that event that what was used last season.
Busch did drive for a different team (Stewart-Haas Racing) two years ago, but his sixth-place finish at Phoenix, another flat, one-mile circuit earlier this season gives me confidence that Chip Ganassi Racing can give him a fast race car at this style of track.
Christopher Bell (+210) for a Top-10 Finish
Bell did not do himself any favors last week as his 23rd-place finish knocked the No. 95 Toyota back out of the top 24 in owner points, resulting in a 35th-place starting position after Thursday’s qualifying draw. Yikes.
However, that’s likely a large reason why this price is so good for a driver who has owned New Hampshire in the Xfinity and Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series.
In two Gander Trucks events at this track, Bell has a win and a second-place finish. Somehow, he was even better after graduating to the Xfinity Series, winning both of his starts at New Hampshire while leading 279 (69.8%) of 400 total laps across both races. That’s pretty good.
And finally, Bell’s team, Leavine Family Racing, has an alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing, which has won five of the past eight races at New Hampshire, so his car should be plenty fast enough to pick through the field and challenge for a top 10.