Edwards battles lame-duck status

Why Edwards' odds were that high are a mystery, but the line of questioning directed toward him at the beginning of the Chase has centered on his lame-duck status at Roush-Fenway Racing as he gets ready to bolt to Joe Gibbs Racing in 2015.

Edwards isn't the only Chase driver in the history of the sport who has gone through this type of transition -- in fact, we have recent examples with Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch -- but there appears to be at least some level of wonderment as to how he will fare when the Chase gets underway in Sunday's MyAFibStory.com 400 at Chicagoland Speedway (2 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Edwards got off to a good start on Friday with a third-place finish in opening Sprint Cup Series practice, posting a top speed of 191.022 mph before a mist shrouded the 1.5-mile tri-oval outside of Chicago and ended up canceling Coors Light Pole qualifying. Afterward, he said it's more of the same at Roush-Fenway Racing.

"Nothing has changed for me," Edwards said. "I am actually shocked by how everything has just stayed the same. ... The meetings are the same, the information -- I guess I wouldn't know if they are keeping something from me, but I don't think they are at all. We haven't even talked about it other than to say we want to finish this strong and win the championship."

None of the three drivers we mentioned who have made high-profile team switches since 2012 has gone on to win the championship. But their performances as lame-duck drivers haven't been significantly worse, either.

Kenseth, who made the same RFR-to-JGR transition as Edwards, entered his final Chase run with RFR in 2012 in seventh place, but three straight sub-par finishes dropped him to 12th in the standings. He finished that Chase in seventh. Kenseth put a different spin on the stresses of switching teams.

"I think that once everything is out in the open and the public knows everything, it isn't hard anymore," Kenseth said. "I think before that, it is. The hardest part for me was to go tell Robbie (Reiser, VP of competition) ... even though he understood and still understands, it was sort of hard but we were friends so he totally got it."

Kenseth went on to enjoy success in his first year with JGR, finishing second to Jimmie Johnson in last season's Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup and winning a league-high seven races. So one could say the transition went about as well as it could have for him.

Kurt Busch, who left Furniture Row Racing after the 2013 season and joined Stewart-Haas Racing as its fourth car, entered last season's Chase in eighth but finished 10th. He entered this Chase 10th. And as far as distractions are concerned he's not buying them as a reason Edwards should do poorly.

"The Chase, it seems like it's always easy to go there and block out all of the outside distractions," Busch said. "When you're intensely focused to win a championship and run through this Chase, that Friday, Saturday, Sunday is your time to focus, and seems like it's easier to block out what's going on."

Kenseth echoed Busch's sentiment, saying, "I think once it gets going, you're all in it together. You're all fulfilling your commitments. Carl is fulfilling everything he agreed to do, and I'm sure his race team is going to do the same thing. They're going to go out there and be competitive and try to figure out how to win the championship."

Harvick, who entered last year's Chase in fourth with Richard Childress Racing and finished third and enters this year's Chase sixth, said the key for Edwards will be going out on a high note at RFR.

"I know to Roush it doesn't seem like a win-win, but in Carl's situation, in my opinion it's a win-win," Harvick said. "You're going to get the most out of your current situation because as a driver you don't want to let them down and they want to end well and go out on a good note with you. And obviously the future is bright.

"Knowing that you have something fresh and something new to look forward to is very rejuvenating after you've been in one spot for a very long time. I know it was for me and it seemed like it was for Matt as well."

But for Edwards it's business as usual for now. Already, at least one Vegas outlet has dropped Edwards to 40-1, so the odds are starting to stack up more in his favor. And we'll see if that initial 100-1 was way off base in the end.

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