Roundtable: Talladega looms in Contender Round

Zack Albert: It was plenty difficult enough tracking the in-progress points standings in the late going at Dover. I can't imagine how the live standings will look at Talladega with the huge multi-car packs and the running order in flux every lap.

Cain: And then, there are those drivers who really seem to consistently put in good finishes at those restrictor-plate tracks.

Cavanna: What I wasn't expecting were drivers being so worried about Kansas and Charlotte. Some referred to Kansas as a "wreck-fest." Brad K. said the entire round scares the "bleep" out of him.

Albert: Bleep? Was that not a nice word? Kansas does have the potential to truly set the tone, though. I look at how Almirola opened at Chicago and never quite recovered. He ultimately gave himself a chance, but in a three-race series, the slim margin for error proved to be too much to overcome.

Cain: Kansas has been hairy for sure in recent races, but I think the odds of figuring that out and controlling your own destiny are much higher there than at a place like Talladega.

Cavanna: I think the worry of Talladega is only going to increase the intensity at the first two races. Everyone wins.

2. Speaking of setting the tone, who are your best bets among the remaining 12 Chase drivers to start off the Contender Round strong at Kansas?


Cavanna: The first round belonged to Penske. I think the Hendrick cars come out strong at Kansas and even the playing field.

Cain: For me, it's not just a question of who historically runs well at Kansas but of who is running strong right now. It would not surprise me to see Jeff Gordon win at Kansas, and I know a certain Hendrick teammate ready to hoist a trophy and make some noise.

Albert: I realize this comes loaded with "ifs," but I like Kevin Harvick to post a statement win. The No. 4 car ran extremely well there in the spring and finished second. If those nagging issues that seem to snarl the team stay away, Harvick should be, well ... happy.

Cavanna: I threw out this stat on the NASCAR.com Preview Show: Brad K. and Joey Logano have a combined four career wins at the next three tracks. (Logano has zero.) Jimmie and Jeff have a combined 25 wins. ... So far we've mentioned the Hendrick cars and Harvick. What about the three Joe Gibbs Racing cars that made it to this round?

Albert: I love the NASCAR.com Preview Show, starring Marty Snider. (I kid, Alan. I kid.) I know Kyle Busch has had difficulty with Kansas in the past, but have to believe he's due to overcome that. I know that on sheer horsepower, their team is down, but Kenseth's steady nature ought to be enough to move him on.

Cain: JGR has been fast, but they haven't finished it out ... unless you count doing "just enough." They are running well but don't seem to be a part of the victory conversation in the way Hendrick and Penske are. The problem with that is counting on a solid points day at Talladega if there are any hiccups at Kansas or Charlotte.

Cavanna: So I think we've come to a consensus: Carl Edwards wins Kansas.

Cain: Exactly.

3. What can fans expect to see from Tony Stewart now that the three-time Sprint Cup champion no longer faces the threat of criminal charges? Could he return to Victory Lane before the end of the year?

Cavanna: I asked him a very similar question Monday at his press conference. He admitted it will be anything but "business as usual" even now that he's been cleared.

Cain: I may be in the minority ... but yes. Yes, Tony can win and it wouldn't surprise me if he did. I know he hasn't run well this year -- even before his leave -- but I can envision that happening. He's historically good at most of the tracks we go to. Remember those five Chase wins for his last championship in 2011.

Albert: I can see it happening, too, but I think it will be a lot to overcome. His mind has clearly been on other things than managing his race teams, and he admitted as much on Monday. I know there is therapeutic benefit to finding safe haven in your work, and perhaps that's what carries him.

Cain: I think that's exactly the difference-maker, Zack. And he has won in every single previous season on the Cup level. I just see it coming together.

Cavanna: For Tony's sake, I hope you're right, Holly. But I have a hard time placing where it could happen. As you said, he wasn't running well before Watkins Glen, as we've only seen slight improvement since he returned. Combine that with all the Chasers gunning for wins, and I think we have to wait until next year for Smoke to find Victory Lane.

Cain: He may struggle in six of the next seven races ... but I could see that one week when he pulls off the magic.

Albert: Alan raises a great point of "if so, where?" Why not Talladega, right? Much more level playing field and Stewart has shown to be an adept restrictor-plate racer.

Cain: He could win at Talladega, Phoenix, Homestead ...

Cavanna: I could see that, Zack. Tony's skills combined with Hendrick power, and the need for teammates to be running together. Tony should find himself up front. A win would be quite a story.

Cain: Indeed, Alan.

Albert: Major story. And it could happen. The only thing we know for sure is that Carl Edwards wins at Kansas.

Cavanna: Back-flipping right into the Eliminator Round!

Cain: That's right. Carl Edwards wins at Kansas. ... or Jeff Gordon or Jimmie Johnson or Kevin Harvick ...

Albert: ... or Alan, if he ever gets that call from Mr. Penske.

Cavanna: I retired as a champion. I'll stay on the sideline.

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