Our experts address this week's hot topics in NASCAR
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1. Richard Petty Motorsports has announced that Sam Hornish Jr. will drive the team’s No. 9 Ford beginning in 2015. What can we expect from the team?
Alan Cavanna: I think "outside chance at making the Chase" will be the category the team and organization remain in. The No. 9 car specifically was right on that bubble, even if you take away the road-course skills of Marcos Ambrose. Just like this year, the team will need a little more next year
Zack Albert: Hornish has done plenty to earn a return trip to Sprint Cup full-time, and the extra seasoning in the Nationwide Series has served him well. Liked Ambrose a lot, and he was always the scourge of the road courses, but Hornish -- though ovals were always his IndyCar strong suit -- has some road savvy about him as well.
Kenny Bruce: For starters, I think it's a tremendous move for the Petty organization. Hornish brings no baggage with him and has experience in the series. I'm not sure we can grade his previous results without considering how competitive the Penske organization was overall during his tenure there. But if you believe that RPM is on the upswing, signing Hornish should keep the group headed in the right direction. Can they win? Sure, anyone can. Can they be competitive on a weekly basis? That's the question.
Cavanna: RPM needs oval winning ability. Hornish has shown he has that in Nationwide, and I think Almirola is right on the cusp. Now it's time for the cars to improve. We're seeing that in the latter half of this season. If Hornish can help the team, both will compete for surprise victories next season.
Zack Albert: Surprises, yes, but I think any sort of RPM victory would be classified as mild upset more than a complete shocker. The timing and connections seem to fit. RPM honcho Sammy Johns touched on it in the Wednesday announcement -- he believes Hornish's personality will mesh well with Aric Almirola's. It's always good to have a couple of even-keel guys in the fold. We'll see if it translates to competitive hunger come February. The team still has a ways to go, but this is a great step.
Bruce: I'll halfway agree with you Alan. I think the cars need to be better, but you've also got to have drivers behind the wheel that can tell the team what's lacking. How many times have we seen lower-tier or new teams switch drivers to see if their struggles are a result of the equipment or the driver's inexperience?
2. Let's talk Chase. Do the three drivers currently residing at the bottom of the Chase standings -- Brad Keselowski, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson -- HAVE to win one of the next two races to advance to the Eliminator Round?
Cavanna: Absolutely. And I'm basing it simply on math (WARNING: journalist is about to do math!). Take Jimmie Johnson for example. Even if he finishes second in the next two races, his average finish for the three races will be 14.7. I don’t believe that will be enough to make the top eight.
Zack Albert: Must-win? I'm not so sure. But I'll say all three really need top-fives or top-10s to stay alive. A Kansas repeat would be disaster. Talladega will be a grinder either way. I'm not sure Alan's abacus will be able to handle it.
Cavanna: For perspective, the 8th-best average finish in the first round was 12.3, by Dale Jr.
Bruce: I think one of them has to win. With two races remaining, Charlotte and Talladega, there's time for a driver or two to have a bad race, much like those three did at Kansas. If that's the case, the points picture could change once again. From a numbers standpoint, obviously all three can't win to advance. It might be the end of the line for one of the Chase favorites.
Cavanna: Keselowski predicted a big name would fall in this round, and he looks to be spot-on. Without wins, there is a very real scenario the 2, 88 and 48 are all out after Talladega.
Bruce: I guess the better question would be does one of the three have to win? But I think Zack's right; with the necessary finishes, a win isn't required. But if I'm one of the three, I'd rather have a win to guarantee it.
Albert: Almost every driver publicly says they don't want to wish bad luck on their competition, but secretly, don't they need some of that voodoo on their rivals? A win fits the "control your own destiny" mantra, but some of those drivers are going to need some help.
Cavanna: The only way it can happen without wins is if the other drivers find tremendous bad luck. It's certainly possible, but without wins, those three teams do no control their own fates.
Bruce: It reminds me of a Saturday night local event, with the field inverted. What's the "Smokey & The Bandit" line? A long way to go and a short time to get there?
3. Meanwhile, up in front of the pack: After two wins in the first four races, can we stop calling Joey Logano a championship dark horse?
Albert: Absolutely. The driver formerly known as "Sliced Bread" belongs among the elite, having taken that step from not-quite-realized-potential to a proven winner (over and over) this season.
Cavanna: Anyone who's been sleeping on Joey Logano has been doing it wrong. He was in championship-caliber form in the back half of 2013. And he's only improved from there.
Bruce: Boy, I'll have to admit I didn't see that one coming. Logano winning two of the first four? I knew heading into the Chase that the No. 22 team had enjoyed a really good season, and I figured he'd be in the picture. But right now, he and his team are the picture.
Cavanna: Well-said, Kenny. The strongest part of Logano's resume this year is his ability to win. It's the best and easiest way to advance in this new format. It's why I put him in my final four for Homestead. I believe he'll win one of the Eliminator Round races.
Albert: The change of venue has certainly served Logano well since moving over from Joe Gibbs Racing, but the dramatic rise in Team Penske performance hasn't hurt either. Best bet for an Eliminator Round win from the No. 22 camp? I'm looking at Texas.
Cavanna: Bulls-eye, Zack.
Bruce: At the rate those guys are winning, I'm not sure I'd overlook Martinsville or Phoenix either, Zack. A couple of things to note: Logano has finished inside the top 10 in 10 of the last 11 races. And when the team has had a bad race, they've typically come back strong: 39th at Fontana, wins two weeks later; 35th at Darlington, wins the following week. It seems as if nothing knocks this team off its game. So is he the title favorite, or just the most likely to be in the final four?
Albert: Both?
Cavanna: I believe those are two totally different things, Kenny. The title favorite is the best driver at Homestead. I'm still not picking against Jeff Gordon.
Albert: Gordon remains my championship pick as well, but I'm not going to take the Penske team's efforts on 1.5-mile tracks this year out of the equation, either.
Bruce: I think so, Zack. But one "average" race for someone that's run as well as Gordon certainly doesn't mean he's out of the hunt, Alan, so keep that "Drive For Five" t-shirt in your luggage.
Albert: Cavanna Nation!
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