Those who expected a Hendrick/Penske Chase find new format had other plans
RELATED: Follow your picks in the Chase Battle Grid Presented by Toyota
Remember concerns that the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway might consist of four teams from a single organization?
Or the ones who predicted it would be a showdown between Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske teams in the season's final race?
It was easy enough to wonder "what if," and heading into the Chase it wasn't all that far-fetched to think either of those two possibilities would unfold. Both seemed much more plausible at the time than, say, a driver without a victory in the first 26 races advancing deep into the Chase. Or a six-time champion getting booted out with two rounds remaining.
Neither of the first two predictions took place while both of the last two have come to pass.
What happened? Well, to sum it up, the Chase happened.
Things have certainly changed since the green flag dropped at Chicagoland in September. Today, as the Sprint Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the second race of the Eliminator round, it appears more likely that next month's finale will consist of four teams from four separate organizations.
With three races remaining, I'm no so sure that will be the case either, but the potential for such a scenario is building.
That all-Hendrick Motorsports line of thinking went by the boards two weeks ago at Talladega, when three of the four drivers (Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne) fell by the wayside, leaving only Jeff Gordon to soldier on.
The Talladega fallout also slammed the door shut on the suggestion of the Hendrick/Penske tag-team, losers-leave-the-country showdown. Both may be represented, but if that's the case, the best they can do is fill three of the four slots.
Penske can still send both Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski to the final, but the latter suddenly finds himself playing catch-up for the second time since the 10-race playoff got underway.
One round earlier, Keselowski need a victory to advance. Now seventh in points and 26 behind fourth-place Matt Kenseth, the driver of the No. 22 Ford will likely need a similar result this time around.
Gordon, Logano and Kenseth, along with Ryan Newman, make up the top four heading into Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 at TMS (ESPN, 3 p.m. ET). Four drivers from four different organizations. The gap between Kenseth (fourth) and Denny Hamlin (fifth) isn't tremendous by any means -- only two points. But Carl Edwards, Keselowski and Kevin Harvick all sit 15 points or more behind the cutoff line.
That might not sound like much, but from a points standpoint, it’s enough to keep a crew chief up at night.
For those three, points are going to be helpful only if one or more of those up top have a bad race, either this weekend or next week when the series heads to Phoenix. The better solution remains the same as it has all season: Win a race, and let the others sort themselves out.
Keselowski and Harvick have demonstrated the ability to do just that, winning a combined nine times this year. Edwards has won twice, but not since Sonoma and has advanced by simply outlasting the competition.
For all eight, Texas represents the land of opportunity. With a non-Chase winner surfacing at Martinsville, who will advance is no more settled than before the round began. Everyone still has a shot and, at the same time, no one is truly safe. Gordon? Don't count on it. If someone such as Kyle Busch can tumble from second to "better luck next time" in the span of a single race, then Gordon, the points leader, and everyone else are just as vulnerable.
Forget domination by one organization. Nice try HMS. Forget the Hendrick/Penske invitation-only affair. Maybe next year.
With just three races remaining, this one's still wide open.
MORE:
READ: Latest
|
PLAY: Monitor your Chase Grid Game picks
|
WATCH: Latest
|
FOLLOW LIVE: Get
|
|---|