Based on average-finish stats, here's who'll take home the title
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If NASCAR wanted an unpredictable Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup when it created the new playoff system, then mission accomplished. In all likelihood there weren't too many Chase Grids filled out before the opener at Chicagoland Speedway that had the final four of Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman and Kevin Harvick.
But now that they've made it this far and the excitement is building toward a leader-take-all finale to the 2014 season, it's time to trot out the numbers and have some fun trying to make sense of all the madness. So using average-finish stats -- at Homestead-Miami Speedway, for this season and for the past five races -- we'll arrive at the winner toward the bottom of this story.
The reason we've chosen these three stat categories is to get a sampling of what each driver has done in the past and during the present in order to try to accurately predict the future. The thought is you can't take a step forward without learning from the past.
But like we said, the Chase has been tough to call, and sometimes the numbers don't account for a driver's moxie, a crew chief's key call or mechanical issues that can crop up from time to time. However, we remain fearless with our prediction, so without further ado let the games begin as we wait for the Ford EcoBoost 400 to get underway on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Average finish for the 2014 season
| Rank | Driver | Avg. Finish | Points |
| 1 | Joey Logano | 11.2 | 4 |
| 2 | Ryan Newman | 13.0 | 3 |
| 3 | Kevin Harvick | 13.3 | 2 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 14.5 | 1 |
Inside the Numbers: Logano had an average finish of 11.5 entering the Eliminator Round, but finishes of fifth, 12th and sixth at Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix, respectively, allowed him to improve on what was already a stellar stat. So if you like consistency, then you should be out doing donuts if Joey is on your fantasy team or in your Chase Grid this week. ...
Newman has yet to notch a win this season, but he has gotten this far thanks to his impressive average finish. And like Logano he is trending in the right direction and could become the first winless Chase driver to take home a title. Plus, he's obviously willing to push folks out of the way if needed in order to get that elusive title. ...
Harvick has had one of the fastest cars all season and has put to rest any issues with the pit crew. He also is trending in the right direction, which makes sense given you can't get this far without being hot at the right time. He's certainly hot coming off that dominating effort in the desert. ...
Hamlin has improved in this area, too, from 15.1 before the Eliminator Round to 14.5. He's had some in-race issues, but has managed to overcome them in time to keep posting solid finishes. Plus, his fifth-place finish at Phoenix was his best one yet in this Chase, so he's coming in hot as well.
Average finish for the past five races
| Rank | Driver | Avg. Finish | Points |
| 1 | Joey Logano | 7.6 | 4 |
| 2 | Ryan Newman | 8.2 | 3 |
| 3 | Kevin Harvick | 9.2 | 2 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 10.0 | 1 |
Inside the Numbers: There was a moment in Sunday's race at Phoenix where Logano started to lose his patience as he pounded his fist into his steering wheel. But he bounced back for a sixth-place finish and has endured two straight races where his patience has been tested. To go through that and emerge unscathed is a good sign for his championship chances. ...
Whether you agree with it or not, Newman's move on Kyle Larson to push him up and out of the way on the final lap showed grit and determination. That's the kind of controlled aggression (if there is such a thing) you'd want to see at this point in the Chase. Newman has five top-10 finishes in the Chase, but perhaps more importantly hasn't finished lower than 18th since Chicagoland. ...
Harvick has six top-10s and two wins in the Chase, and if you erase his 33rd-place finish at Martinsville from the equation, his average finish during the Chase is an outstanding 5.8. ...
Hamlin also has six top-10s during the Chase with a best finish of fifth last week at Phoenix. He managed to work around a 37th-place finish at Loudon, but other than that his lowest finish during the Chase was 18th at Talladega.
Average finish for Homestead-Miami Speedway
| Rank | Driver | Avg. Finish | Points |
| 1 | Kevin Harvick | 8.1 | 4 |
| 2 | Denny Hamlin | 11.2 | 3 |
| 3 | Ryan Newman | 17.0 | 2 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 20.8 | 1 |
Inside the Numbers: Harvick has 11 top-10s in his 13 career Cup races at Homestead-Miami, but he has never won a race there. He finished second in 2003 and 2008. ...
Hamlin has two wins at Homestead-Miami (2009, 2013), the most among the remaining four contenders. He's tied with Carl Edwards for second among active drivers; only Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle (with three apiece) have more wins at Homestead. ...
Newman has just four top-10s in 12 career races at Homestead. His best finish was third place in 2012. ...
As the youngest driver in this group, Logano has the smallest sample size of five races in which he has posted just one top-10. But he won the pole at Homestead in 2012 and is coming off his best finish there, an eighth place in last year's race.
The final outcome
| Rank | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Joey Logano | 9 |
| t-2 | Ryan Newman | 8 |
| t-2 | Kevin Harvick | 8 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 5 |
It's close, but it's Joey Logano who will come away with his first championship on Sunday, and will do so at just 24 years old. Call it a slice of heaven for the guy they call "Sliced Bread." We can't wait to find out if the five-time winner in 2014 will be able to come out on top in this unexpected, yet strong championship field.
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