Bruce: Never count 'Smoke' out, but he needs a win
RELATED: Chase-clinching scenarios for Pocono
It's been three years since Tony Stewart qualified for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
And it's beginning to look as if the three-time series champion might miss this year's field of 16 as well.
Stewart, 44, is 26th in points heading into this weekend's Windows 10 400 at Pocono Raceway. With only six races remaining before the field is set, it's unlikely that the co-owner/driver at Stewart-Haas Racing will qualify for one of the 16 positions based on points.
To earn a chance to compete for this year's championship, Stewart needs nothing less than a victory in the coming weeks.
Defending series champion Kevin Harvick, six-time champion Jimmie Johnson, '04 champ Kurt Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. have officially clinched Chase berths.
Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards are 2015 race winners and are currently 16th or higher in the points standings.
Kyle Busch, riding a white-hot streak that has seen the Joe Gibbs Racing driver win three consecutive Sprint Cup events, and four of the last five, is on the doorstep of the top 30 in points (another Chase eligibility requirement).
Non-winners, but those somewhat safely inside the top 16 in points include Jamie McMurray and Jeff Gordon. On less stable ground are Ryan Newman, Paul Menard and Kasey Kahne, currently 12th through 14th, respectively, in points. Unless he can advance his points position, Clint Bowyer, who sits 15th, would fall outside the Chase as soon as Kyle Busch cracks the top 30.
Stewart is trying to climb into contention. Those on the periphery are likewise trying to advance -- or hold on -- to what they've earned thus far.
A win in the coming weeks by anyone else, AJ Allmendinger (23rd) at Watkins Glen for example, would trump the points position of a non-winner inside the top 16.
It's unlikely that someone such as Kahne, Menard or Bowyer is resting too comfortably these days. Kahne has made three consecutive appearances in the Chase, but isn't taking anything for granted; Menard's still chasing that first playoff opportunity; Bowyer, meanwhile, is attempting to return after missing the field a year ago.
Aric Almirola (17th) and Greg Biffle (18th) made last year's Chase. Austin Dillon (19th) and Kyle Larson (20th) are still looking for that first career win and first Chase appearance. Would it be unwise to look past any of those drivers given the uncertain nature of racing? Rules package changes and a variety of tracks -- large, small and a road course to boot -- only serve to muddy the racing waters.
Stewart's Chase absence has been well documented. A broken leg in 2013 sidelined the No. 14 driver for the season's final 15 races. A year ago, he missed three races prior to the start of the Chase, and while he was given a NASCAR exemption, Stewart failed to produce the necessary win or points position to qualify.
Perhaps it would be just as unwise to look past Stewart, given what he has been able to accomplish in previous years.
But the road ahead won't be an easy one for him or any of those looking to go from Chase hopeful to Chase qualifier.
The calendar is starting to take an ugly turn.