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Kevin Harvick has two wins and 10 runner-up finishes this season in what has been a dominant showing in his quest to defend his 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship. But after a 42nd-place finish in the 2015 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup opener on Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway, Harvick is in a hole as far as trying to advance to the Contender Round.
Harvick sits 22 points behind the 12th-place driver, Jeff Gordon, the last spot that will advance when the field shrinks from 16 to 12 drivers in two weeks at Dover International Speedway. The situation begs the question: Can Harvick rebound in the next two weeks in time to make it?
George Winkler and RJ Kraft are here to debate whether we'll see the No. 4 for Stewart-Haas Racing in the second round. Read their debate and leave your opinion in the comments section below.
PHOTOS: See a timeline of the wreck, altercation
Winkler: I don't want to say with 100 percent certainty that we won't see Harvick in the second round of the Chase, but anyone who says it's in the bag because of last year when he pulled out a dramatic win at Phoenix after faltering at Martinsville is failing to realize how special last year was for the No. 4 team. Earning a win in such a competitive field is going to be difficult, and while Harvick has won once at New Hampshire, he hasn't won at Dover. There's definitely not a Phoenix in that mix, a place where he has won seven times in Cup competition.
Kraft: I'm not saying it's in the bag, but I still believe that when the dust settles Harvick will advance to the next round of the Chase. The defending Sprint Cup Series champion has a knack for coming up big when the pressure is on. Besides the Phoenix win you cited, he essentially did the same at Homestead in the finale for the championship win. The tide will certainly turn at Loudon where he has two straight third-place finishes and he also had a runner-up showing at Dover in May. And fun fact, after Harvick finished 42nd at Pocono last month due to an engine failure, he bounced right back with a third-place result at Watkins Glen and a runner-up finish at Michigan. The margin of error is pretty much gone, but two strong runs should be enough to advance him on.
MORE: Harvick wrecks at Chicagoland
Winkler: Not sure two strong runs will be enough if the next two races play out like Chicago did. The next worst Chase finisher was Clint Bowyer in 19th, showing how tightly bunched and competitive this group of Chase drivers is this year. While it's not insurmountable for him to do it, Harvick is likely going to need a couple of top-five finishes to advance. And as we saw on Sunday in Chicagoland, even if you have a fast car and a good run going, one wrong move by another driver can ruin your day. And with some of them getting more desperate as the Challenger Round moves on, the driving is likely to get much more aggressive.
Kraft: Speaking of aggressive driving, I think that actually could favor Harvick. Look, his position in the points can't be much worse, so he is likely going to go for broke at New Hampshire and Dover. That means, taking some chances to try and lock himself in with a win and in that spot there is no one else I would rather have behind the wheel and crew chief Rodney Childers has proven to be a sound strategist (see last year's four-tire call at Homestead on the final pit stop). With 1-mile venues on the docket for the rest of the round, trouble is bound to find someone else. In this elimination format, give me the team that has been down this road before, because they know what it takes to get it done. Harvick's 2014 season was, indeed, magical and this is his first big adversity test of 2015, and I look for him to pass through with flying colors (and competitors in the dust) on his No. 4 Budweiser/Jimmy John's Chevrolet.