MORE: 'Smoke' gets hot in the summer once again
With the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series having an off week, it's time to answer some hard-hitting questions, such as: Is Tony Stewart a legitimate title contender? Which winless driver this season is most likely to get one next? And can Chris Buescher crack the top 30 in the points standings? If so, whom might he boot out of Chase contention?
There are just four races left until the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup field is set, so NASCAR.com editors Pat DeCola and Taylor Nunnally tackle these questions in a quick roundtable.
1. Is Tony Stewart a legitimate title contender?
TN: I'd like to start off by saying that I think it's awesome to see a driver find such great success in their final full-time season. Tony Stewart's win at Sonoma and his performance since has been better than his last two seasons combined, and the No. 14 driver currently sits 26th in the Sprint Cup Series standings. If the Chase field were set today, he'd be in it.
Come playoff time I wouldn't be surprised if we saw "Smoke" slip back into the shadows of elimination. Yes, he's a champion driver with wins at all but two tracks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series schedule (Darlington and Kentucky), but if we're looking at recent performances at the Chase-designated circuits that lie ahead, he's only got one win (at Dover in 2013) and three top-five finishes in the last three years. I'd be as pumped as anyone if Stewart made it to the Championship 4 this year, but stats don't lie, Pat.
PD: Stats don't lie, but they don't always tell the whole story. I've come to learn that a determined Tony Stewart behind the wheel is not something to doubt. Based on the turmoil of his past few seasons, it'd be easy to just ride it out, collect his checks (signed by him, as the team owner and all) and focus on Porkchop's agility training. But this show pig ain't done yet.
Stewart isn't that far removed from his miraculous 2011 Chase run, when he deemed his team unfit to win a Sprint Cup Series title ... then went out and won half the playoff races to secure his third title. He told NASCAR.com's Jonathan Merryman after his Sonoma win that he's "going to stick with my approach from 2011. I said we couldn't win it then and we ended up winning it. I feel like we're just starting to get going."
Based on his recent spate of consistently strong runs, I don't see why he isn't in the title conversation -- especially given how far we saw an under-performing Jeff Gordon make it in 2015.
2. Which winless driver this is season is most likely to end up in Victory Lane?
TN: I love a race that brings a season's first-time winner. In 22 Sprint Cup Series-scored races this year there have been 12 different winners, and I'd say it's time for a new face in that mix. Who, you ask? I've got my eyes on Sunoco Rookie of the Year candidate Chase Elliott.
The No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports driver has already put up impressive numbers in his rookie season, with six top-five and 11 top-10 finishes, Elliott knows how to run with the big dogs. His best finish of this year came at Michigan where he was runner-up to 2015 Daytona 500 winner Joey Logano, so I'm banking that on the return to the Irish Hills in a couple weeks, the 20-year-old will turn that second-place finish into a first-time trip to Victory Lane.
PD: You know, at first I actually had Elliott targeted at Michigan, as well, for that reason. But who was third in that race? My real pick: Kyle Larson.
Elliott has been more consistent on the whole this season -- as evidenced by his 12th place to Larson's 15th in the standings -- but just based on the "feel test," it seems like Larson has been thisclose to a win a handful of times this season. In contrast, there aren't any races that jump out as real missed opportunities for a win for Elliott, despite his high finishes. At some point, it feels like Larson is just going to break through, whereas it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see Chase win until next year.
3. Can Chris Buescher crack the top 30?
TN: I'm probably not alone in saying that I'm surprised Chris Buescher was the first rookie to score a Sprint Cup Series win this season. Yes, he's the 2015 XFINITY Series champion, but the Sprint Cup Series is another animal and his performance behind the wheel of the No. 34 this year has been less-than exhilarating. Buescher is currently sitting 31st in the point standings and needs to be in 30th place come Richmond (Sept. 10) to be Chase-eligible. Given his track record (literally), Buescher's best performance at the last four circuits before the Chase field is set doesn't seem too promising, with his best finish of 20th coming at Michigan earlier this year; he's yet to try the "Lady in Black" that is Darlington.
Long story short, although he seems close right now, I don't see Buescher cracking the top 30 and knocking another Chase contender out.
PD: Sure, it's a bit of a longshot, but it seems more likely that he makes the leap from 31st to at least 30th (only three points at this ... point) than his win was, so it certainly isn't out of the equation.
Looking at the drivers directly ahead of him in the standings -- David Ragan, Landon Cassill, Casey Mears, Aric Almirola -- they have zero top-10s combined. I expect the Chase-determined No. 34 team to be grinding for every point, and don't expect the respective performance of each of those other teams to suddenly improve. Plus, neither Cassill nor Ragan has a DNF this season, so if either winds up with one it opens the door a little more for Buescher.