RELATED: Penalty hurts Newman | Updated Chase Grid
It's here. After weeks (months?) of scenarios, forecasting and projections, Richmond is here. The Federated Auto Parts 400 takes place at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) and exactly four Chase spots are up for grabs.
One (Chris Buescher) has a win, but must finish in the top 30 of the points standings. Three others (Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, Jamie McMurray) are currently in the postseason field based on points.
While Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne can technically make up the points gap and sneak into the postseason, the clearest path is to win. For everyone in the Chase standings below Kahne, it's win-or-bust -- no one else has even the possibility of qualifying for the postseason on points, if Buescher keeps his position in the top 30.
RELATED: Chase-clinching scenarios for Richmond
Here's a guide to how the bubble drivers, and those outside the bubble, perform at Richmond.
Note: The standings below are the Chase Grid standings, not the driver points standings.
How the field performs at Richmond
| Chase standing | Driver | Average Finish | Points from cutoff | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13. | Chris Buescher | 34.0 | In with a win | Buescher is 11 points ahead of 31st-place David Ragan. If he clinches a postseason spot, it'd be one of the biggest Chase surprises in NASCAR history. |
| 14. | Chase Elliott | 14.0 | +39 | Elliott has two career Sprint Cup starts here, but he's won at Richmond in the XFINITY Series. |
| 15. | Austin Dillon | 24.2 | +31 | In five starts, Dillon has finished 27th three times and 20th twice -- a slight cause for concern. |
| 16. | Jamie McMurray | 20.1 | +22 | This is a solid track for McMurray, who has finished fourth in three of the past six Richmond races. |
| 17. | Ryan Newman | 11.7 | -22 | Staying out late at Darlington proved the No. 31 team will gamble to win it -- on Saturday, they won't have any other choice. |
| 18. | Kasey Kahne | 16.7 | -44 | Kahne essentially has to win Saturday, something he hasn't done at Richmond since 2005 and in NASCAR since 2014. |
| 19. | Ryan Blaney | 28.0 | -69 | Blaney started 29th and finished 28th in the spring in his only Sprint Cup start here. |
| 20. | AJ Allmendinger | 20.0 | -80 | Allmendinger finished 15 spots below his starting position here in the spring. |
| 21. | Trevor Bayne | 21.3 | -83 | Bayne has improved his finish in each of his three Sprint Cup starts. |
| 22. | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 22.9 | -91 | Stenhouse might be Roush Fenway Racing's best shot to qualify for the postseason, although his best finish at Richmond is 10th in 2013. |
| 23. | Paul Menard | 23.6 | -163 | -One year after making the postseason, Menard must win to get back. |
| 24. | Greg Biffle | 17.5 | -165 | Keep an eye on Biffle. His car has been faster lately, and he finished 14th in April. |
| 25. | Danica Patrick | 25.3 | -175 | Patrick has finished in the top 25 the past four races, with a best showing of 16th during that time. |
| 26. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 13.2 | -181 | Earnhardt Jr. will miss all 11 remaining races in 2016 as he recovers from a concussion. |
| 27. | Aric Almirola | 16.9 | -211 | -A fourth-place effort in this race last year gives the No. 43 team hope. |
| 28. | Clint Bowyer | 12.3 | -215 | This is perhaps Bowyer's best track on the circuit, but he's simply been outmanned this year. |
| 29. | Casey Mears | 24.6 | -232 | Mears has finished outside the top 20 in his past four Richmond starts. |
| 30. | Landon Cassill | 28.1 | -274 | Cassill's best finish here is 19th in 2012. |