Predicting who will advance in Chase's Round of 12

RELATED: Chase driver profiles | Chase Grid

It's crunch time for Chase drivers -- and for our numbers -- as we try to see who will advance past the Round of 12 in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup, which gets underway this weekend at Charlotte. But first let's see how we did with our Round of 16 predictions.

We had Chris Buescher and Jamie McMurray bowing out after Dover. Check.

However, we had Austin Dillon and Chase Elliott getting ousted, and instead they survived and advanced. Ouch, hip-checked.

In our defense, Dillon was in a precarious position at the Dover elmination race until Kyle Larson's mechanical misfortune, and Tony Stewart, who also got eliminated, barely edged out Elliott for the final spot in our previous prediction. (This round-about explanation was meant to get you ready for some of what you'll hear in the upcoming presidential debate.)

But stick with us folks, and see how we do this round. Even if we don't get it all right, there are stats you don't want to miss for big-name drivers like Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards in a round that includes Charlotte, Kansas and Talladega (the big wild card that routinely thumbs its nose at stats people like us.)

A reminder on our numbers: We've looked at average finish and laps led in the following categories for each Chase driver: 1. Season stats, 2. Last five races and 3. History at Round of 12 tracks. This way, we feel like we've accounted for who has done consistently well this season versus who is hot now versus who has some good experience under his belt.

Let's look at results for average finish, then we'll move on to laps led before unveiling the final prediction:

Average Finish

How we got the numbers: We assigned a point value to each Chase driver relative to how he finished in each of the following categories: average finish this season, average finish in the last five races and average finish at the Round of 12 tracks. For example, if a driver was tops in average finish this season, he got 12 points; second place got 11 points and so on down to last place, which got one point. Then, we added up the point values each driver earned in the three categories to arrive at the above list. Here are the top three drivers and bottom three drivers in each category:

Average finish this season:
Leaders: 1. Brad Keselowski, 2. Kevin Harvick, T-3. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin.
Followers: 10. Matt Kenseth, 11. Austin Dillon, 12. Jimmie Johnson.

Average finish last five races:
Leaders: 1. Martin Truex Jr., 2. Brad Keselowski, 3. Kyle Busch.
Followers: 10. Jimmie Johnson, 11. Kurt Busch, 12. Carl Edwards.

Average finish at Round of 12 tracks:
Leaders: 1. Chase Elliott, 2. Jimmie Johnson, 3. Brad Keselowski.
Followers: 10. Martin Truex Jr., 11. Kurt Busch, 12. Kyle Busch.

Analysis: It's somewhat stunning to see Jimmie Johnson as the lowest rated driver in average finish for the season given the amount of success he has had over the course of his career. Clearly, his team needs to improve quickly if it wants to win a seventh title. ... Carl Edwards has not performed well over the past five races, but the silver lining is he has a recent win at Charlotte (2015's Coca-Cola 600) and finished sixth in the Bank of America 500 last year. ... Kyle Busch is winless at Charlotte while his struggles at Kansas have been well-documented. Those concerns are again supported here with the worst average finish among the 12 drivers at the next three tracks.

Now, let's take a look at how the drivers fared in laps led.

Laps Led

How we got the numbers: Same as with average finish, we assigned a point value to each Chase driver relative to how he finished in each of the following categories: laps led this season, laps led in the last five races and laps led at the Round of 12 tracks. Then, we added up the point values to arrive at the above list. Here are the top three drivers and bottom three drivers in each category:

Laps led this season:
Leaders: 1. Martin Truex Jr., 2. Kyle Busch, 3. Kevin Harvick.
Followers: 10. Chase Elliott, 11. Kurt Busch, 12. Austin Dillon.

Laps led last five races:
Leaders: 1. Martin Truex Jr., 2. Kevin Harvick, 3. Denny Hamlin.
Followers: 10. Jimmie Johnson, 11. Austin Dillon, 12. Kurt Busch.

Laps led at Round of 12 tracks:
Leaders: 1. Jimmie Johnson, 2. Matt Kenseth, 3. Kyle Busch.
Followers: 10. Carl Edwards, 11. Chase Elliott, 12. Austin Dillon.

Analysis: Chase Elliott and Kurt Busch are both behind the pace in laps led this season, but the outlook is significantly brighter around Elliott because of an average finish in the past five races of 9.6 compared with Busch's mark of 15.0 over the same span. ... When you win two of the past three races like Martin Truex Jr. has, of course you're going to be rated highly in the last five races. But when you've also led the most laps over the course of the entire season, it's easy to see why he's the championship favorite. ... If Carl Edwards plans to finally get that first championship, it would serve him well to get a win at Charlotte or Kansas, because he has one of the worst records at Talladega among the remaining Chase drivers.

FINAL PREDICTION

Final prediction: Alas, Edwards won't get a chance at that first title, according to our prediction. He'll join Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch and Austin Dillon as the drivers missing the Chase cutoff after Talladega. Jimmie Johnson will be the last driver to make it (in eighth place) -- with Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch in control as the series opens the Round of 8 at Martinsville Speedway.