Talladega history shows second in points far from secure

RJ Kraft

10 years ago

The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup elimination-style format is in its third year and the 2016 postseason marks the last time that Talladega Superspeedway will serve as a cutoff race for the Round of 12 as the playoff field drops to eight drivers. The Talladega and Kansas Chase races will flip-flop their spots on the schedule in 2017, making Kansas the Round of 12 cutoff race.

In previous years, "The Big One" has wreaked havoc on the postseason picture, leaving drivers who looked like near-locks to advance on the outside looking in as the championship battle continued. Bad luck at Talladega always seems to find at least one Chase driver.

In the past two years, the driver second in points (and the first driver not locked in by a win) entering Talladega has failed to advance. Both times that has been a Joe Gibbs Racing driver; Kyle Busch in 2014, Denny Hamlin in 2015. This year, Matt Kenseth, a JGR driver, enters Sunday's Hellmann's 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) in that same position. Will bad luck strike JGR three years in a row? NASCAR.com examines how the Chase eliminations played out at Talladega the past two years.

(*) on chart indicates that driver won a Round of 12 race to lock up a spot in the Round of 8.

Standings entering 2014 Talladega Chase race

Rank	Driver	Points
1.	Joey Logano	3088*
2.	Kyle Busch	3082
3.	Kevin Harvick	3081*
4.	Ryan Newman	3077
5.	Carl Edwards	3076
6.	Jeff Gordon	3074
7.	Denny Hamlin	3073
8.	Kasey Kahne	3057
9.	Matt Kenseth	3056
10.	Brad Keselowski	3038
11.	Jimmie Johnson	3031
12.	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	3031

Standings after 2014 Talladega Chase race (pre-points bump)

Rank	Driver	Points	Race finish
1.	Joey Logano	3121*	11th
2.	Kevin Harvick	3117*	9th
3.	Ryan Newman	3117	5th
4.	Denny Hamlin	3100	18th
5.	Matt Kenseth	3099	2nd
6.	Carl Edwards	3099	21st
7.	Jeff Gordon	3093	26th
8.	Brad Keselowski	3085*	1st
9.	Kasey Kahne	3090	12th
10.	Kyle Busch	3086	40th
11.	Jimmie Johnson	3053	24th
12.	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	3045	31st

Keselowski needed a win to advance and got it, holding off a charging Kenseth and getting past Newman on the final lap. Without the victory, Keselowski would have come up five points short of advancing. A wreck just after the midpoint of the race saw Kyle Busch's title hopes go by the wayside. Kenseth's runner-up finish vaulted him into the eight drivers who advanced. A 12th-place finish ultimately left Kahne missing the cut by three points. Johnson and Dale Jr. combined to lead 115 of 194 laps but both got caught toward the back of the pack late.

Standings entering 2015 Talladega Chase race

Rank	Driver	Points
1.	Joey Logano	3095*
2.	Denny Hamlin	3082
3.	Kurt Busch	3077
4.	Carl Edwards	3076
5.	Kevin Harvick	3071
6.	Brad Keselowski	3071
7.	Jeff Gordon	3071
8.	Martin Truex Jr.	3070
9.	Kyle Busch	3064
10.	Ryan Newman	3062
11.	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	3039
12.	Matt Kenseth	3035

Standings After 2015 Talladega Chase race (pre-points bump)

Rank	Driver	Points	Race Finish
1.	Joey Logano	3142*	1st
2.	Carl Edwards	3115	5th
3.	Jeff Gordon	3113	3rd
4.	Kurt Busch	3112	10th
5.	Brad Keselowski	3111	4th
6.	Martin Truex Jr.	3107	7th
7.	Kevin Harvick	3101	15th
8.	Kyle Busch	3098	11th
9.	Ryan Newman	3095	12th
10.	Denny Hamlin	3090	37th
11.	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	3083	2nd
12.	Matt Kenseth	3054	26th

An issue with the roof hatch combined with his involvement in an end-of-race wreck knocked Hamlin out of the Chase. Dale Jr. led a race-high 61 laps but couldn't edge past Logano before the caution came out to end the race. The end-of-race wreck came amidst engine woes for defending series champion Harvick and sparked questions that he intentionally caused a pileup on a restart; NASCAR found no wrongdoing on the No. 4 team's part. The Chasers were a bit more aggressive in terms of positioning than in 2014. Truex had to overcome starting at the back of the field after his qualifying time was disallowed for dipping below the double-yellow line during his qualifying lap.

Standings entering 2016 Talladega Chase race

Rank	Driver	Points
1.	Jimmie Johnson	3082*
2.	Matt Kenseth	3074
3.	Kyle Busch	3072
4.	Carl Edwards	3069
5.	Kurt Busch	3062
6.	Martin Truex Jr.	3058
7.	Kevin Harvick	3048*
8.	Joey Logano	3045
9.	Austin Dillon	3045
10.	Denny Hamlin	3039
11.	Brad Keselowski	3038
12.	Chase Elliott	3020