RELATED: See the pre-Phoenix Chase Grid
Dry spells happen with regularity in the Arizona desert, where rain typically falls a thimble at a time.
For NASCAR Sprint Cup Series hopefuls competing at Phoenix International Raceway against Kevin Harvick in recent years, it's been positively arid.
Harvick's torrid tear at the 1-mile track includes a dominant stretch of five wins in the last six Phoenix races, part of his series-best eight victories on the Southwestern oval. That run of success bridges the end of his long tenure with Richard Childress Racing to his current home as driver of the Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Chevrolet.
The former series champion returns to Phoenix for Sunday's Can-Am 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) in need of another stellar performance to clinch his spot among the Championship 4 in next weekend's Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. History might suggest a Harvick cinch, but the 40-year-old driver says he's leaving nothing to chance.
"I feel like that can be gone at any point," Harvick said about any potential Phoenix advantage. "That's the hardest thing about having success. You have to have an open mind to try new things to keep moving forward. If you don't have an open mind or are not willing to try a fresh approach, then it will get stagnant. You're going to become stale and get left behind."
Harvick has found himself with challenging Chase scenarios before, but in each instance since the current postseason format debuted in 2014, he has found ways to advance. Two years ago, Harvick converted a must-win in the penultimate race at Phoenix by leading 264 of 312 laps to clinch a spot in the final. He won the finale the following week for his first series crown.
Harvick has managed similar escape acts this season. In the previous pair of three-race stages in this year's Chase, Harvick has overcome a shaky start in the round-opening event with a victory to stave off elimination. Heading to the Round of 8 curtain-closer this weekend, Harvick is in need of another clutch outing, ranked seventh out of the eight remaining title hopefuls and 18 points behind a jumbled cut-off line for advancement.
The favorite's role seems to apply, but Harvick said plenty of factors -- weather, track conditions, handling characteristics -- remain in play.
"There are all kinds of things to navigate through once you get there," Harvick said in a release provided by his team. "There are a lot of good race car drivers and lots of circumstances that could play out to have things go wrong. You go there with a fresh start like you've never won there before and try to get the car dialed in."
One different factor heading to Phoenix this season -- fewer spots in the Championship 4 final field up for grabs. Victories by Chase-eligible drivers Jimmie Johnson (two weeks ago at Martinsville) and Carl Edwards (last weekend at Texas) have gobbled up two berths in the Nov. 20 season finale. In 2014, all four spots were open before the Phoenix race; last year, three of the four slots were unclaimed.
It's a cozy contest along the cut-off point. Four drivers -- Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin -- are separated by just a two-point margin, with Logano and Busch in a deadlock for the final two spots. It's 18 points off the cut line for Harvick with a sizable 34-point deficit for his Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Kurt Busch.
Of those remaining six title hopefuls, four have been included in the Championship 4 in past seasons. If Kenseth and Kurt Busch were able to advance and join Johnson and Edwards in the final, the field would be full of drivers making their first appearances in the Homestead-Miami title race under the current Chase format.
Four of the six drivers still in limbo are former series champions -- Harvick, Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch. Like finalist Edwards, Hamlin and Logano are still seeking their first Sprint Cup championship.