DraftKings Rankings: Bristol

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings' NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver. (fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary. The typical median fppk for a 2016 race was in the threes. Plate tracks tend to be lower and short tracks tend to run higher due to the amount of laps.) 1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,700) – This is the fastest car in years, and Truex has the stage points to prove it. He was fast at Bristol earlier this season. He led 116 laps and ran 89 fast laps. He could have won the race if it wasn't for a late race penalty. (6.3 fppk) 2. Kyle Larson ($10,500) – Bristol is a high groove track. Most drivers will congregate on the bottom racing line, so Larson will pass them up top. Larson led over 200 laps at Bristol in the spring. He should have won, but a late race speeding on pit road penalty ruined his chances. (5.4 fppk) 3. Jimmie Johnson ($9,300) – Here is how you win a race. Run inside the top-five. Don’t commit penalties. When the leaders stay out on old tires at the end, go get fresh tires. Chad Knaus is such a genius. Jimmie loved his car at Bristol, and he won at a similar track in Dover. (3.5 fppk) 4. Joey Logano ($9,000) – This is the forgotten driver. In the spring, Jimmie Johnson won, but Larson or Truex should have won. Logano ran inside the top-five all day (average position of fourth) and battled Larson and Truex throughout the day. (3.0 fppk) 5. Denny Hamlin ($9,600) – The tier of drivers just below Truex and Larson is led by Denny Hamlin. At the last short track (New Hampshire), Hamlin combined his just-enough speed with strategy and earned the win. In his last four Bristol races, he has three top-10s and three tops-10 DFS scores. (3.9 fppk) 6. Kyle Busch ($10,800) – He hasn't been the same since they took out the progressive banking. He hasn't won since. He's finished 29th or worse in five of his last six at Bristol. Don't be fooled by his XFINITY and truck success at Bristol. That's never gone away, but his Cup prowess has. (5.2 fppk) 7. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,700) – He's very good at Bristol. It's his favorite track. Similar to Larson, he can run and pass on the high groove, and others can't. Stenhouse has five top-10s in his last seven at Bristol. When he wrecks in practice, don't worry. He seemingly does this every time. (4.2 fppk) 8. Chase Elliott ($9,200) – Early in the season, Elliott was impressive at the short tracks. Since then, he's settled in as a top-10 driver, but not a lap leader. It's hard to pay over $9,000 in salary and not get laps led points in return. (3.7 fppk) 9. Jamie McMurray ($8,500) – If McMurray qualifies inside the top-10, then it's okay to be worried. We should accept that McMurray is a top-10 driver, but we won't. And we can't at Bristol. However, in his last seven races at Bristol, his average running position has never dipped below 14th. (3.3 fppk) 10. Kevin Harvick ($9,800) – This is going to sound like a commercial for Chevy, but the Stewart-Haas racing switch to Ford has not gone well. Harvick could win this weekend because skill can cover for his machine at Bristol. Even so, Harvick likely won't be out front all day. (4.2 fppk) 11. Matt Kenseth ($9,400) – Desperation is sinking in. Kenseth needs to win, but how do you beat Truex and Larson? He scored the fifth most fantasy points in the spring race, but that was due to place differential points. It will be hard to roster Kenseth if he starts inside the top-20. (3.5 fppk) 12. Brad Keselowski ($10,100) – The Penske cars suffered several mechanical failures at Bristol (except for Logano). The mechanical gremlins have been solved, but what about Brad's Bristol gremlins. He only has three top-10s in the last 10 Bristol races and five outside of the top-30. (4.2 fppk) 13. Ty Dillon ($6,800) – Dillon's 15th-place finish at Bristol in the spring was a bit fortunate. He received the "Lucky Dog" wave around four times. That means he was lapped four separate times. It's been that way for most of the year for him, why would it stop now? (4.7 fppk) 14. Clint Bowyer ($8,800) – Unfortunately for Bowyer, we're in the "winning is everything era of NASCAR." He has the sixth best average finish this season, and he's not going to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the drivers in 21st and 23rd are safely in the playoffs. (3.8 fppk) 15. Erik Jones ($8,700) – Bristol is a tough track, so in the spring when Jones ran inside the top-10 for the whole race, a lot of drivers took notice. The only knock on Jones is his price. He's right on the edge of paying too much for a driver that won't score a lot of fast lap and laps led points. (3.6 fppk) 16. Ryan Blaney ($8,900) – Short track woes have plagued Blaney all season. If you look at average finish, then you'll conclude he's just not a short-track driver. However, it's been bad luck. At Bristol, he lost his power steering. This a high price to pay for an unlucky driver. (2.8 fppk) 17. Kurt Busch ($8,400) – This is a price tier where daily fantasy NASCAR players can settle for finishing position points and place differential points. Unfortunately, there is a reason Kurt Busch is priced in this tier. He's been OK this season. He's been OK at Bristol. Maybe, he'll be better in practice. (2.9 fppk) 18. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($8,000) – Last week was a small step forward, but after practice, it looked like Junior would have a big week. The speed vanished, and Junior commented on Twitter this week that he needs more speed to win. He suffered a mechanical failure at Bristol in the spring – more speed and a car that runs 500 laps. (2.5 fppk) 19. Matt DiBenedetto ($5,800) – Driver skill can compensate for an inferior car at a short track. Of course, Dibenedetto has benefitted from a lot of cars wrecking in past Bristol races, but there's more to it. In the spring race, Dibenedetto held up Larson for several laps. He can race this track. (3.7 fppk) 20. Corey LaJoie ($4,600) – Don’t fall out of your chair. The winning daily fantasy NASCAR lineup will likely have two low priced drivers or one really cheap driver. That lineup will be stuffed full of laps led and fast lap points. LaJoie averaged 28th in the spring, let the leaders pass, and stayed out of trouble. (3.7 fppk)