As race drivers are prone to surmise, Joey Logano likes his chances in Saturday night’s regular-season finale at Richmond Raceway (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) largely because he has won twice here before, including the last time the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visited in May.
The difference this time? He must win -- if he hopes to secure a Monster Energy Series playoffs bid.
Logano’s No. 22 team was issued an L1-level penalty following the Richmond spring race after NASCAR's post-race inspection found issues with the rear suspension, so Logano's win does not count as a qualifier for the playoffs.
Following that news, Logano’s typically championship-contending Team Penske group went into a slump. An eighth-place finish at Kentucky and a fourth-place finish at Indianapolis are the only top-10 showings for the normally multi-race winner since July.
Even after an uncharacteristically slow summer, Logano and his experienced team would not have predicted they would be racing for their playoff lives when the series returned to Richmond in what has now turned into a "last chance race" for the preseason title favorite.
“If we do everything right, we can squeak one out,’’ a rather serious-looking Logano told the media Friday, acknowledging, “It’s do-or-die this weekend."
MORE: Detailed bubble lookAnd the thing is, Logano is not alone in his win-and-in quest. There are other top names now in that same situation -- from preseason playoff picks such as Clint Bowyer to rookies such as Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez, who really have come into their own here, two-thirds of the way through the schedule.
Even the three winless drivers still ranked among the playoff-eligible top-16 in points -- Chase Elliott, Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray -- are very real trophy threats this weekend.
Logano freely admits he didn’t envision the high-pressure scenario he has found himself in. The bottom line is Logano must hoist a trophy late Saturday night in Richmond's Victory Lane if he wants the opportunity to go door-to-door for his first championship.
And he knows it.
“This is what I live for,’’ Logano said. “Second place is a failure.’’