Why Brad Keselowski will win the 2017 Monster Energy Series title

RELATED: Buy tickets for Homestead-Miami Championship Weekend Editor’s note: This is the fourth in a series of four stories examining why each driver could win the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship. RECAP: Martin Truex Jr. | Kyle Busch | Kevin Harvick • • • Brad Keselowski will win the 2017 championship because … No team is better when its collective back is against the wall. And make no mistake about it -- the No. 2 Team Penske group is the definitive underdog heading into Miami. No one has been better as an underdog in this elimination-style postseason format, though. Keselowski produced clutch wins at Talladega in both 2014 and this year, when he desperately needed a victory. He rallied for fourth at Martinsville after being knocked out of the way by Chase Elliott with four laps to go. And while Keselowski hasn't produced super speed on 1.5-mile tracks this year, his Homestead history is impressive. He's qualified in the top 10 for six consecutive years -- with five of those coming in the top five -- and logged finishes of sixth, third and third heading into last year, where he qualified second but wrecked out. Homestead has the makings of a strategic race. Tires are crucial, and teams have fewer tire allotments this year than in years past. It's also the first championship race under the stage-racing format, and while stage points don't count for championship contenders, the guaranteed cautions are a new element. Crew chief Paul Wolfe has a reputation as one of the garage's top strategists, and will be prepared for any scenario but remain flexible enough to adjust on the fly if needed. Things certainly have to break the right way for Keselowski and Co., but if so, the driver of the No. 2 will be a two-time series champion. MORE: Brad and Paige Keselowski through the years | Breaking down the Championship 4