Chase Elliott will start from the Busch Pole in Monday's Gander RV 400 at Dover International Speedway (Noon ET, FS1, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Does the most recent race winner at the 1-mile track and last weekend’s Talladega victor merit a spot in your Fantasy Live lineup? We’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration.
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Remember that the garage locks at the end of Stage 2. Once the final stage starts, your roster is locked in.
RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day at Dover: 1. Chase Elliott 2. Kevin Harvick 3. Kyle Larson 4. Daniel Suarez 5. Clint Bowyer Garage: William Byron
Cars to the rear: Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Preece, Matt Tifft and Alex Bowman for multiple pre-race inspection failures.RELATED: Odds for Dover | 10-lap averages | Podcast: Fantasy Fastlane
Analysis: Let’s start with who is staying in my lineup. Elliott is on the pole, won at Dover in the fall, is riding high after last weekend’s win and has the third-most points in the last four Dover races. Harvick has the most points in the last four Dover races, is the defending race winner and won every stage contested here last year. Suarez is a perfect four-for-four in top 10s at Dover and had the sixth-best 10-lap and 20-lap averages (h/t @mikejoy500 for the 20-lap numbers). On top of that, I’ve yet to use him and he seems to have settled into a nice spot at Stewart-Haas Racing.
On the Fantasy Fastlane Podcast, I said I wanted to see the Larson of old before I put him in my lineup. I had two checkboxes for him to hit — a top five starting spot and a top-three 10-lap average in a Saturday practice. He hit both of those boxes, and Larson looks to be back to himself at a place that he has run very strong at in recent years. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver has the fourth-most points in the past four Dover races. I know the 2019 numbers aren’t great — two top 10s, 20th in Fantasy Live points. He has the best 10-, 15- and 20-lap averages, however. He’s in the lineup.
The last spot in my lineup came down to Bowyer, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson. The Dover history favors Johnson, without question, with 11 wins at the “Monster Mile." Hamlin has had the strongest start to the season among the threesome with the third-most Fantasy Live points. Bowyer’s numbers have been strong on short tracks and 1-mile venues with an average of 40.25 points in those four races. The 10- and 15- lap averages favor Bowyer as well, so I’m giving him the slight nod. I don’t mind saving Hamlin for the next couple of races. Johnson did top final practice but his 10-lap time was the lowest in the Hendrick camp and they didn’t make a long run, which is a bit concerning.
I had Truex in the garage, but since he's going to the rear, I'm taking him out. It just feels that's too much ground to cover. Instead, I am plugging William Byron into the garage. I think he's worth the flyer starting second, especially since I haven't used him.For the bonus picks, I think it’s going to Chevrolet’s day. I like Elliott to win Stage 1 while I have Larson for Stage 2 and the race win.
Each week in this space, we’ll also highlight two Props Challenge items for players. MORE: Play the Props Challenge today1. Chevrolet drivers have won eight of the last 12 Dover races. Will a Chevrolet driver go to Victory Lane on Sunday? I believe the answer to this is yes. Chevrolet has four cars starting in the top five and that does not include the manufacturer’s most consistent car all year — Kurt Busch — or the driver that has won 11 times here and topped the board in final practice in Jimmie Johnson. The Bowtie brand only has one win this year and it came at Talladega but the speed shown this weekend makes me think win No. 2 is coming this weekend.
2. O/U 15.5 stage points for Kevin Harvick in Sunday’s race. I’m going with the over here because I like the long-run speed Harvick showed in final practice and Dover typically gets some lengthy green-flag runs. The margin of error is low here — if Harvick finishes sixth in the opening stage, he can’t hit the over. That said, I think starting sixth he can score top-three stage points in both stages and for that reason I’m taking the over but it will be close.