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After two straight weekends at Charlotte Motor Speedway for the All-Star Race and Coca-Cola 600, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) heads north to visit Pocono Raceway for the first time this season.
Last week we had the luxury of relying on results from other 1.5-mile racetracks this season to help make picks for Charlotte. However, Pocono Raceway, a flat, 2.5-mile tri-oval, is unique compared to the rest of the racetracks on the MENCS schedule.
As a result, we don't have much data to lean on since there truly aren't any comps to Pocono. Therefore, I'll be analyzing results from recent races at the "Tricky Triangle" to make my
NASCAR Props Challenge picks for Sunday's Pocono 400.
1. Three of the last four Pocono winners have started from inside the top four. Does the Pocono winner start from inside the top two rows?
While three of the last four winners have started inside the top four, just four of the last 10 races at Pocono were won from the first two rows.
Pick: No
2. O/U 34.5 race points for Clint Bowyer?
Seven drivers finished with 35 or more race points at Pocono last season, meaning we need to project Bowyer to be a top-seven car to take the over here.
Interestingly, Bowyer has the eighth-best average running position (ARP) at Pocono over the past two seasons, meaning he's been very close to one of the best seven cars.
Still, he's led just five laps over those four races and, as always, I have a hard time "expecting" performances good enough to go over when the data is this close.
Pick: Under
3. Toyota has won the last three Pocono races. Does this streak continue?
Over the last four races at Pocono, Toyota drivers Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Erik Jones rank first, third and fourth, respectively, in laps led, with Busch and Truex combining for three wins.
However, I do think the new aero package is going to make drafting more prevalent, which should keep the rest of the pack in touch with the leaders.
Busch and Truex will certainly be in the mix for the win, but I'll take the field here.
Pick: No
4. O/U 15.5 lead changes?
This is so tough because it's recent track history vs. the new aero package. While the new package should result in more lead changes, there has been an average of just 13.25 lead changes since 2017.
I have to take the under here until this package proves me otherwise.
Pick: Under
5. Which driver scores more race points at Pocono? Paul Menard or Ryan Newman?
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