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The Action Network: Eyes on Almirola in a group bet for Martinsville

PJ Walsh

Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs' Round of 8 is set, with Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney advancing after Sunday's race at Kansas Speedway. After races at the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway and 1.5-mile Kansas, the Cup Series returns to my favorite track on the circuit, the .526-mile Martinsville Speedway. After perusing odds for this weekend's First Data 500, very little jumped out at me regarding long-shot value or even early week value overall. But I have found an enticing group matchup bet available at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. RELATED: Odds, lines for Martinsville playoff race Group matchups are basically a combination of futures and head-to-head matchups in which oddsmakers assign odds to a group of drivers -- in this case four -- and whichever driver finishes ahead of the other three cashes. It doesn't matter where the driver finishes in the overall finishing order. As long as he or she beats the other three in the group, it's a win. For example, here's the specific group I'm looking at for Sunday's Round of 8 opener: Martinsville is a short and flat track, which makes it unique compared to the rest of the tracks on the schedule. To break down this grouping, I looked at a handful of key metrics for each of these drivers at the other short and flat tracks on the schedule: ISM Raceway, Richmond Raceway (two races) and New Hampshire Motor Speedway. As you can see, Almirola dominates across every statistical measure at the flat tracks, and his performance was similarly good at Martinsville earlier this season, which is important to note since it represents the only race ran at this track with the current aero package. Here are stats from the STP 500 at Martinsville earlier this year: While Suarez finished just one spot behind Almirola back in March, Almirola clearly had the faster car as evidenced by the superior average running position and driver rating. Almirola having an edge over the other three drivers in average starting position is another important note, too, because while it doesn't necessarily matter in determining who wins the bet, it does have an effect on locking in the best line possible. Prior to practice and qualifying, sports books will take these lines off the board, then adjust based on what happens on the track, with a heavy emphasis on starting position. The drivers who qualify well will re-open with shortened odds, while those with poor starting positions will become longer. Over the course of the season, Almirola has been the best qualifier of the group at this track type, so it makes sense to lock in this wager early.