There’s a tight bunch of drivers atop the oddsboard for the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum, a testament to the notion that nobody -- oddsmakers included -- knows what to expect when 23 cars race around the quarter-mile track inside Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Sunday (6 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Not only is this the first time the Cup Series has competed on a layout this short, but the Clash also marks the debut of the Next Gen car, throwing another wrench in the handicapping process.
RELATED: Full schedule for Clash weekend | See the odds for this weekend | How Clash worksThe uncertainty surrounding the Clash, though, is precisely where one sharp NASCAR bettor believes he can find his edges. In fact, he’s putting stats aside and basing his wagers on overreactions he spots in the betting market.
"I don't think handicapping is really possible for this race," Blake Phillips told NASCAR.com. "I'm not really going to be betting on projections, but more on uncertainty. I'm more interested in the fact that I don't think anyone really has any idea what's going to happen. So when I notice what appears to be a strong opinion in the market, a lot of times I'm going to fade that."
While betting the outright market (the driver to win the race) is "a little bit of a fool’s errand" on Sunday, he said, Phillips will try to pick off value in matchups (betting one driver to finish ahead of another).
"It's going to be a purely exploitative strategy, similar to what I'm going to do on superspeedway tracks, anywhere where there's a lot of randomness involved," Phillips said. "I'm going to be looking for areas where I can exploit randomness. I just truly don't think that anybody has a handle on what's going to happen this weekend. So the books have an unenviable position of having to put a price on it, and I have the enviable position of being able to pick and choose if any of 'em look good to me."
Hint: Look for underdogs in the matchups.
Modeling Randomness
Like every other observer of the sport, Jim Sannes -- a quantitative NASCAR betting and fantasy analyst at numberFire -- expects the unexpected come Sunday. He believes he can adjust his model to account for it, however, and that he’s found some value on the oddsboard.
"I'm running (race simulations) as if it were a higher-variance, short, flat track. In other words, I'm taking a model similar to what I'd use for Richmond and Phoenix and jacking up the volatility within it," Sannes said in direct message. "This likely would have been the case, anyway, given that it's a new car, but once you add in that it's a brand new track with heat races that aren't set yet, it kind of necessitates making things a bit more unpredictable."
RELATED: See the LA Coliseum track come to lifeRyan Blaney wins 9.6% of Sannes’ sims, which translates to odds of +941. Christopher Bell projects to have a 6.2% chance of taking the checkers at the Coliseum, equivalent to +1512. Based on those projections and the odds below and elsewhere, Blaney and Bell are solid plays in the outright market.
| DRIVER | Barstool | BetMGM | DraftKings |
| Chase Elliott | +600 | +600 | +650 |
| Kyle Larson | +600 | +600 | +750 |
| Denny Hamlin | +650 | +600 | +600 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +700 | +700 | +600 |
| Kyle Busch | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1100 | +1000 | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1100 | +1000 | +750 |
| William Byron | +1300 | +1200 | +1400 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1600 | +2000 | +1800 |
| Christopher Bell | +2000 | +1800 | +2000 |
| Kevin Harvick | +2000 | +1600 | +1800 |
| Alex Bowman | +2200 | +2000 | +1800 |
| Kurt Busch | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Austin Cindric | +2800 | +3300 | +4000 |
| Aric Almirola | +4000 | +4000 | +4500 |
| Ross Chastain | +4000 | +4000 | +7000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +4000 | +3300 | +4000 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +5000 | +8000 | +8000 |
"I'm very on board with the Blaney and Bell love," Sannes continued, "... Blaney (+1300 at FanDuel) always runs well in Martinsville and Phoenix, which helps me get into him here. And Bell's strength dating back to the Xfinity Series on this track type helps a bunch for me, too. Add in that he's more experienced with heats and such, and I actually do think he's very much worth an outright bet at +2400 (at FanDuel)."
While Sannes' numbers also show value on Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick, +600 feels too short for any driver in this race and concern about "adaptability for an older driver" is enough to stay away from the No. 4.
Should bettors learn from practice and qualifying before firing?
Sunday's Busch Light Clash is preceded by a practice session and single-car qualifying Saturday, and four qualifying heat races plus two last-chance qualifiers on race day. While the NASCAR betting market tends to adjust to data gleaned from practice and qualifying, Phillips is dubious about what handicappers can take from the preliminary events this weekend at the Coliseum.
From a betting perspective, "I don't honestly know how much we're gonna learn from practice and qualifying," Phillips said. "The shortened practice and qualifying sessions I don't think are going be as informative as the previous longer sessions, where you have drivers go out for really long runs and you might get 20-lap average data." RELATED: Breaking down the Next Gen tire
Sannes, though, plans to re-run his simulations after practice and qualifying in an effort to extract additional betting value, particularly as race teams adjust to the Next Gen car.
"My model gets stronger if I include practice and qualifying data," he said. "That's less true for Daytona, but I do still think the single-lap speeds for qualifying there are interesting because having more speed gives you more navigation power. But for the Clash and the non-superspeedways earlier in the year, it'll be really nice to have the extra data to add in given the uncertainty of the new car."
Marcus DiNitto is Senior News Editor at Gaming Today. He’s been covering sports business for 24 years and sports betting for 11. NASCAR is among the many sports Marcus enjoys betting but often loses on. Follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.