| Driver | SuperBook | BetMGM | Barstool |
| Kyle Larson | +450 | +450 | +500 |
| Christopher Bell | +800 | +800 | +900 |
| William Byron | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 | +900 | +900 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1200 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1200 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1400 | +1400 | +1300 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1400 | +1200 | +1400 |
| Martin Truex | +1400 | +1400 | +1200 |
| Ricky Stenhouse | +1800 | +2000 | +2200 |
| Alex Bowman | +1800 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Ross Chastain | +1800 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Kevin Harvick | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Daniel Suárez | +2500 | +2000 | +2500 |
| Kurt Busch | +4000 | +4000 | +5000 |
| Austin Dillon | +4000 | +4000 | +3300 |
Suárez, Chastain have bookmakers’, bettors’ attention ahead of Food City Dirt Race at Bristol
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Experience on the dirt is the single biggest factor in how oddsmakers are pricing the NASCAR Cup Series spring race at Bristol Motor Speedway, set to be run for the second year in a row on a surface unfamiliar to many drivers. But while the top of the betting board for Sunday’s Food City Dirt Race mirrors that for last year’s go-round the half-mile oval, there’s been significant odds adjustments among some of the contenders lurking behind favorites Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell.
Daniel Suárez stands out among the movers. The No. 99 Chevrolet led 58 laps around the Bristol dirt last April, finishing fourth in Stage 1, second in Stage 2, and crossing the finish line fourth. That performance, combined with solid form out of the Trackhouse Racing garage this year, prompted SuperBook USA’s Ed Salmons to open Suarez at 25-to-1 odds for Sunday, a massive leap from the 100-to-1 odds the Mexican driver was offered at last year.
RELATED: Betting odds for Bristol Dirt Race | Bristol weekend schedule
Despite a less-than-impressive practice run in 2021, Suarez earned the betting market’s respect after the green flag dropped.
“There was nothing that I saw in practice that said he's gonna go up and challenge to win the race. So (the way he ran) was definitely a surprise. And that's applied to this year's odds, obviously,” Salmons, VP of risk management at the Las Vegas bet shop, told NASCAR.com this week.
Race luck wasn’t on the side of Ross Chastain, Suarez’s Trackhouse teammate, in last year’s version of this event. He crashed out early driving for Chip Ganassi Racing and finished just 52 laps, not enough for bookmakers or bettors to glean anything meaningful. This season, though, Chastain has been among the best drivers in the Cup Series, tallying a win, two seconds, a third and fifth over the first eight races.
Yes, he’s gained the market’s attention, and Vegas bettors have taken a liking to the No. 1’s opening price for Bristol.
“He's not a dirt guy, but he’s running so well all year, and with Suárez’s team running good (on the dirt) last year, I assume that their car will be fast,” Salmons said. “He's actually getting some money at 18-to-1.”
Back to the Top
With dirt-track success bulleted on their resumes, Larson and Bell are priced as the clear first and second betting choices at the SuperBook. It’s a tighter call for second at BetMGM and Barstool, with Joey Logano -- winner of last spring’s Food City Dirt Race -- listed at 9-to-1 odds at both sportsbooks.
Here are odds from those three books for Sunday’s top contenders:
“They're the starting point, they’ll always be the starting point,” Salmons said of Larson and Bell. “Last year was kind of screwy that they both got taken out in the same thing (a wreck on Lap 51). We'll never know how that race actually would've gone down if those two had run (a complete race).”
Different Approaches to Handicapping the Dirt
With just one dirt race of data to go off, quantitative analysis becomes challenging for Sunday’s Cup event. Some sharp bettors are staying away completely.
Jim Sannes, a NASCAR betting and DFS analyst at numberFire, has trepidation about his simulations this week.
“I do have a model for it, but I'm not sure how much I should trust it,” Sannes said in a direct message. “It is based mostly on performance on slick tracks, or those with heavy tire falloff. Those tracks were more predictive of performance at last year's race, even if they weren't short. So, for example, average running position in the Homestead race had high correlation to average running position in the Bristol dirt race. So for this year, tracks like Richmond and Fontana are featured (in his model) even though they're not similar to Bristol dirt.
“I'm not sure if I'll use (the model) to bet.”
A more qualitative approach, Salmons suggests, is to look back at overall performance at Bristol, the change to the Next Gen car notwithstanding.
“I think the one thing that we took from last year was if you run good on Bristol pavement, you run good on Bristol dirt,” the oddsmaker said. “And it's pretty obvious that the good teams are still the good teams on this stuff, whether you have dirt experience or you don't.”
Around the Field
Here are some more thoughts from Salmons and Sannes on other drivers in Sunday’s field:
-- Martin Truex Jr. had an outstanding showing on the Bristol dirt last year, winning the Truck race, shining in Cup practice, and leading 126 laps and winning Stage 1 before cutting a tire and finishing 19th in the main event. “(Winning the Truck race) showed something, and his practice at the Cup level last year was off-the-charts fast,” Salmons said.
-- While his model doesn’t necessarily show value in Tyler Reddick, Sannes has the No. 8 circled in pencil. “Still evaluating that,” Sannes said Tuesday. “But either way, I'll likely be holding off until after practice to truly go deep in on it.”
-- Denny Hamlin is priced as a pick ‘em in matchup props at the SuperBook against Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and Truex. Some bettors will be looking to fade the No. 11 in these markets, Salmons anticipates. “You may see some things that you're willing to bet in matchups if you think you’ve got someone that's bet-against,” Salmons said. “It was pretty obvious last week in practice that Hamlin looked way off the pace. So you’re probably gonna see that this week, and some people would be happy to bet against that.”
Marcus DiNitto is Senior News Editor at Gaming Today. He’s been covering sports business for 24 years and sports betting for 11. NASCAR is among the many sports Marcus enjoys betting but often loses on. Follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.
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