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Daytona 500 betting: Las Vegas sportsbook takes sharp action on Denny Hamlin

Marcus DiNitto
A respected bettor in Las Vegas liked what he saw when the Westgate SuperBook offered Denny Hamlin at 14-to-1 odds (+1400) to win Sunday’s Daytona 500. By Friday, Hamlin’s price had been shortened to 10-to-1. “One of my sharp guys bet him,” Ed Salmons, VP of risk management at the SuperBook, said in a text message to NASCAR.com, explaining the steep adjustment. ACTION NETWORK: See this "must-best" for the Daytona 500 Hamlin has been just average during Speedweeks – he’s starting from the 18th position Sunday after posting the 26th fastest qualifying time Wednesday and finishing ninth in the Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 on Thursday. He’s also been mediocre in the results department over his last three runs on the Daytona oval, finishing 25th, 37th, and 13th. Hamlin, though, has “back class” on superspeedways. Over 34 career races at Daytona, he has three wins and 11 top fives, leading 648 laps along the way. In the 12 superspeedway races since 2020 (also including Talladega), Hamlin has led 15.1% of laps — by the far tops in the NASCAR Cup Series. “Hamlin is an elite plate racer,” Salmons added. How much weight should bettors give to Speedweeks performance anyway? “I don’t think the Duels are very predictive at all (look at past D500 results and the corresponding Duels and you’ll probably agree),” Blake Phillips, a sharp NASCAR bettor, said in a text. Plus, maybe Hamlin was holding a little something back. https://twitter.com/dennyhamlin/status/1626417577189687296 For bettors tempted to tail the sharp play on Hamlin, be wary: The Westgate bettor liked Hamlin at +1400 odds (which implies a 6.67% chance at winning); he probably does not like Hamlin at +1000 (9.09% probability). How To Bet the Daytona 500 It’s hard to pick a winner in any race. The randomness that occurs at Daytona makes the task even more challenging for the "Great American Race." That’s why no driver is priced below 10-to-1 odds at these three sportsbooks. MORE: Full 2023 Daytona 500 odds | Fantasy Fastlane preview Luckily for NASCAR bettors, sportsbooks offer wagering options beyond the outright (to win) market. One prop that caught Phillips’ eye was ‘starting position of race winner’ at FanDuel.  Here are the odds: Based on recent history, the favorite – that the winner will be one of the first 10 drivers on the starting grid – is overpriced. Odds of -170 imply a nearly 63% chance of occurrence, but over the 21 most recent Daytona 500s, 11 winners came from outside the top 10. So is there value in the other entries in this market? “I think the 21-30 category has gone up in value post-Duel. Not necessarily enough to bet, but I’m going to look at it more closely,” Phillips said in Friday’s text exchange. “The randomness of the finishing position definitely gives you something to look at with that market,” Phillips said when we spoke Wednesday. But while he saw value in +210 for 11-20 earlier in the week, he’s downgraded since the Duels. There’s another lesson in there for recreational bettors: It’s okay to back off your early convictions as new information comes to light. Longshot in iconic number, rock n’ roll paint scheme While it’s difficult to find value on the betting board, this is the Daytona 500, and if you’re reading this article, you probably want to get some action down. At the SuperBook’s 40-to-1 (+4000) price, or even at BetMGM’s +3300, Erik Jones might be worth a sprinkle. “I don’t like any of the outright bets, really, but I think that’s the best one on the board right now,” Phillips said. “(Jones is) a really good superspeedway driver. Last year, he was definitely in contention for the win in the 500, and he did pretty well at Daytona and Talladega throughout the season. That's a driver that I think we might see a little bit of value on. If I'm looking at any of 'em, it's him.” The last time the No. 43 car was in the Daytona 500 winner’s circle was 1981 when Richard Petty finished first in an STP-branded Buick for his seventh and final 500 victory. Jones, piloting the Guns N’ Roses paint-schemed Chevy, looks to bring the iconic number back to glory Sunday. 2023 futures bet on Kyle Busch Zack White, a professional sports bettor whose portfolio always includes substantial investments in futures markets, is holding multiple tickets on Kyle Busch at 16-to-1 odds to win the 2023 Cup championship. A scan of several sportsbooks reveals that price is no longer available (the best we’re seeing is +1400 at the Westgate). “I’ve taken that number (+1600) out about everywhere,” White said in a text message. Baked into that favorable number is Busch’s move from Joe Gibbs Racing to Richard Childress Racing, on the surface a step down in quality of equipment based on the teams' respective successes over the past decade. RCR, though, is coming off a fine first year of the Next Gen car. In the No. 8 Chevy that Busch is driving this season, Tyler Reddick won three races, led 503 laps, and compiled five top fives, 15 top 10s, and three poles. Marcus DiNitto is Senior News Editor at Gaming Today. He’s been covering sports business for 25 years and sports betting for 12. NASCAR is among the many sports Marcus enjoys betting but often loses on. Follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.