Advance to Victory Lane: Projections show Martin Truex Jr. a threat to repeat

He wasn't the projected winner entering the weekend, but the numbers don't lie. The speed of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota at Pocono Raceway, along with Martin Truex Jr. qualifying second, has changed the equation. The formula from the experts at Racing Insights now predicts Truex Jr. will win Sunday's HighPoint.com 400 (2;30 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). If that holds up, it'll be the second consecutive win for Truex and his fourth of the season. Truex Jr. was originally projected second this weekend behind Kyle Busch, but 'Rowdy' slips three spots down to a projected finish of fourth following a qualifying effort of 25th. Polesitter William Byron is now projected to finish second after unloading with a swift No. 24 Chevrolet. Denny Hamlin, who leads all active drivers with six Pocono wins, is projected fourth. FANTASY LIVE: Set your roster | Weekend schedule Hamlin won last year's race at Pocono with Busch coming in second, but both drivers were disqualified after post-race inspection, leading to Chase Elliott claiming the victory instead. OTHERS TO WATCH DENNY HAMLIN: The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver has led laps in each of the last eight Pocono races and has won two of the last six races there. KYLE LARSON: Hendrick Motorsports is a powerhouse at Pocono, and Larson has two top fives and three top 10s in his three starts driving the No. 5. KEVIN HARVICK: The No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing driver has five finishes of eighth or better in the last six Pocono races, including one win. RYAN BLANEY: Blaney has been up and down with three top 10s and three finishes of 12th or worse in the last six races at Pocono. ERIK JONES: He finished ninth last year at Pocono after finishing top five in both stages. Projections as of Sunday, July 23. RACING INSIGHTS' PROJECTIONS FOR THE HIGHPOINT.COM 400 Racing Insights' advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. [table id=67 /]