When analyzing road-course racing, you can typically make an educated guess on which teams are going to perform well before the weekend begins. Based on Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, we covered the bases earlier this week in Fastlane. However, there are a couple of late-week changes to consider.
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Tyler Reddick Starter 2: Michael McDowell Starter 3: Kyle Busch Starter 4: Chris Buescher Starter 5: Daniel Suárez Garage pick: Shane van Gisbergen
NEXT IN LINE: Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell.
RELATED: Set your lineup | Odds for Sunday's raceRISING: Dating back to Suárez’s full-time days in the Xfinity Series, he’s always excelled on road courses. His lone Cup Series win came last season at Sonoma Raceway. The No. 99 team has found raw speed again as it won its first pole award since Trackhouse Racing began two-and-a-half years ago. This is the Mexico native’s first time leading the field to the green flag since 2019 at Kentucky Speedway. He also ranked eighth in single-lap practice speed and was pleased with his car in race trim.
Chase Elliott looked to have rekindled some of his road course dominance on Saturday at the same road course he hasn’t particularly stood out at in the past. The No. 9 team earned its best qualifying position of the season in third. One cause for concern -- and the primary reason why I’m putting him as the first car outside of my lineup -- is he ranked ninth out of the 12 cars to make a 10-lap run. It’s understandable if you elect to start him.
FALLING: Never did I think AJ Allmendinger wouldn’t make my lineup at a road course as an active Cup Series competitor. But he showed irritation with the speed of his No. 16 Chevrolet. He seemed flabbergasted at the lack of pace as he qualified 26th. He didn’t even think the team could pull strategy to get him to the front at some point on Sunday. This is on par with how Allmendinger performed at the Chicago Street Course as he was a non-factor there, too.
All season long on road courses, Austin Cindric and Team Penske have struggled to be among the frontrunners. That’s quite surprising for how Cindric’s skills mesh with road courses and his success as a rookie last year. The No. 2 team has a pair of top-10 finishes in the three road courses this season but hasn’t spent much time inside the top five. The bad news for this weekend is Cindric was frustrated with qualifying 20th. On the positive side, he felt better about his race pace.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Tyler Reddick vs. Chase Elliott: Having been stout on road courses for more than a year, Reddick seemed to take the throne of the best road-course racer in NASCAR. Elliott had that title before him, winning seven times when turning left and right. With a strong showing in qualifying, the gap has shrunk, but would still lean towards the No. 45 car, as Reddick looked to have a consistent car on the short and long runs.
Chris Buescher vs. Martin Truex Jr.: Neither driver made the final qualifying round, but both drivers were pleased with their cars. Truex said he typically starts between 12th to 18th on road courses before charging to the front. Meanwhile, Buescher based his opinions on having a fast race car last year at the Indianapolis road course and started just one position better. It wouldn’t be surprising to see either driver contend for the win, but I do think Buescher extends his top-10 streak on road courses. He’s the pick, though Truex won at Sonoma in June.
Shane van Gisbergen vs. Brodie Kostecki: Both Supercar drivers showed promise in qualifying, especially Kostecki, who was only able to run two laps in practice due to an issue with his throttle. When going out to attempt to break into the final round of qualifying, the No. 33 Chevrolet lost control in Turn 11 and wrecked. Van Gisbergen remained steady, heel-and-toeing his war around the course. He very well could be in contention for his second Cup win in as many tries on Sunday. Stick with the No. 91 car.
Justin Haley vs. Michael McDowell: Anything can happen in racing, but it’s going to be a tall order for Haley to outrun McDowell at the Indianapolis road course. Haley is a capable driver, finishing runner-up to van Gisbergen at Chicago last month, but the No. 34 car was fastest in practice and backed that up in the first round of qualifying. He was irritated to only turn the fourth-quickest speed in the final round. McDowell could also win on Sunday, and he might have to as Suárez, Elliott, Alex Bowman, and Ty Gibbs – all drivers near the elimination line – are starting inside the top 10.