Fantasy Update: Hendrick vs. Toyota on the long run at Las Vegas

The consensus going into the Pennzoil 400 race weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway was that Hendrick Motorsports would rank toward the top of the speed charts. The team has won the previous three spring races at Las Vegas with three different drivers. There are plenty of unknowns surrounding how the new Toyota and Ford bodies will race, though Joey Logano won the pole in a Ford, and four Toyotas made the final round of qualifying. RELATED: Las Vegas schedule Dustin Albino's race-day lineup: Starter 1: Kyle Larson Starter 2: William Byron Starter 3: Christopher Bell Starter 4: Tyler Reddick Starter 5: Martin Truex Jr. Garage pick: Bubba Wallace NEXT IN LINE: Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain MORE: Sunday's starting grid | Sign up and set your lineup! RISING: The first two races of the 2024 season didn't go as planned for Reddick. The No. 45 team is buried 24th in the championship standings with a best finish of 29th. Fortunately for Reddick, NASCAR is at its first intermediate track of the season, a layout he's seen recent success at with winning the Kansas playoff race last season. The No. 45 car ranked fourth in practice on single-lap speed and third on 10-lap averages. With just one top-10 finish in 14 starts, Chris Buescher was labeled to stay away from entering the weekend. However, the No. 17 Ford was the quickest car in Group A qualifying, directly in front of four Toyotas. I would lean toward not putting Buescher in your lineup, but his trajectory is trending upward. FALLING: Alex Bowman entered the race weekend with a bright outlook, posting a trio of top-five finishes across his last six starts in Sin City. The No. 48 team's most recent victory came in this race two years ago. However, he tracked the slowest of the four Hendrick Motorsports drivers in practice and ranked 19th out of 24 drivers on 10-lap averages. I've dropped Bowman from my lineup this weekend. The majority of what could be said for Bowman can be restated for Ross Chastain. The No. 1 team ranked fastest in single-lap speed during the 20-minute practice session but fell off considerably on the long run, sitting 22nd out of 24 cars. It wouldn't be surprising if the No. 1 team found its footing and has another solid Vegas race, but he's also dropped from my lineup. FEATURED MATCHUPS: Daniel Suárez vs. Chase Briscoe It's reasonable to label Briscoe as someone who is also rising. In fact, possibly more considerably than either Reddick or Buescher. Briscoe said on Saturday that his team spent 12-15 hours over the offseason on the simulator to prepare for Las Vegas, knowing that 1.5-mile tracks was the team's weak point last season. Fresh off a victory, Suárez was middle of the pack in both practice and qualifying. We still don't know what to expect from the new Ford body, but I'll give Briscoe a slight advantage entering Sunday's race. Martin Truex Jr. vs. Joey Logano Logano said just as much after winning the pole. The No. 22 Ford team doesn't yet know what to expect on the long run in race conditions. Meanwhile, that's where Truex thrives and has won plenty of races by having the fastest car in the long haul. Keeping the No. 19 team as my pick. Ty Gibbs vs. Bubba Wallace This might be the most interesting matchup of the weekend, given how evenly matched these two teams are. Both made the final round of qualifying, and Wallace has stood out in recent years on intermediate tracks, including his Kansas victory in 2022. Gibbs has gotten much more consistent at unloading off the hauler fast, but Wallace is a driver that I think could win on Sunday. I've moved him to my garage pick. Ross Chastain vs. Brad Keselowski Short run speed means something, right? Chastain has it in spades, as he was nearly a tenth of a second quicker than the field on single-lap speed in practice. Three-time Las Vegas winner Keselowski struggled mightily in practice and qualifying, as he will take the green flag from 25th position on Sunday. As much as Chastain dropped from my lineup, he is still pacing better than the No. 6 car.