Phoenix fantasy update: Toyota sweeps front row, paces field

During a media availability in late January previewing the 2024 NASCAR season, Toyota Racing Development president David Wilson hyped the manufacturer’s new body with the updated short-track package, fresh for '24 as well. With Toyota drivers Christopher Bell and Erik Jones being the guinea pigs amidst a two-day test at Phoenix Raceway in December, the manufacturer was quickest in each session, Wilson recalled. Qualifying, however, was a mixed bag, though Toyota did take up four of the top six spots and won its first pole of the season (and 150th in history) with Denny Hamlin. With extended practice this weekend, heavily consider 10-lap averages when creating a fantasy lineup. FANTASY: Set your lineup | Phoenix 36 for 36 picks Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup: Starter 1: Denny Hamlin Starter 2: Ty Gibbs Starter 3: Ryan Blaney Starter 4: William Byron Starter 5: Ross Chastain Garage pick: Erik Jones NEXT IN LINE: Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott RISING: Legacy Motor Club is on the rise. There were expected growing pains with the organization transitioning from Chevrolet to Toyota, but collectively, this is the most speed the team has shown up to the race track with what feels like forever. John Hunter Nemechek ranked fourth in one-lap speed, while Jones wasn’t far behind in sixth. Their pace didn’t fall off over the long haul, either, ranking third and fifth, respectively. You might want more data points and consistency before using one of their drivers at a track like Phoenix, but Jones has moved into my garage pick. Granted, it was with last year’s short-track package, but Gibbs dominated the Busch Light Clash on a quarter-mile bullring in the preseason. Phoenix is quadruple the size, but the No. 54 team excelled on short tracks and road courses in Gibbs’ rookie season last year as well. Gibbs will take the green flag from second position, matching his best career starting spot. FALLING: When a car misses the setup unloading off the hauler, it’s not uncommon for the entire organization to be a step behind. That’s what happened to Richard Childress Racing on Friday. Kyle Busch led the way for RCR, deep down in 26th on 10-lap averages. Austin Dillon clocked in 31st. The good news is Phoenix isn’t an impound race, so adjustments can be made with an eye on improvement for Sunday. Starting from 17th position at a venue where track position is critical, Larson will have an uphill battle to duplicate his performance from Las Vegas last weekend. He did score maximum points in Sin City, however, in a bout of pure domination. Larson’s numbers at Phoenix are equally unreal, but I’ve moved him to my bench this weekend, knowing he will likely be a threat again at Bristol next week. FEATURED MATCHUPS: Ryan Blaney vs. Ross Chastain: Both drivers underdelivered in qualifying, as neither made the final round. Both drivers tracked similarly in practice on the short and long run. Chastain is the most recent winner in the Phoenix desert, but Blaney’s strung together five straight top-five finishes ... and also won the championship there last fall. I still believe he’s going to be a factor from 16th; he started 15th last fall, so he's the pick. Denny Hamlin vs. Chase Elliott: With how well Hamlin’s car fires off, the No. 11 car is going to be hard to beat on Sunday. That said, Toyota has led a scant 15 laps in the four Next Gen races at Phoenix. Elliott looked solid in practice and possibly overachieved in qualifying, and he will take the green flag from third. Hamlin is the pick, though. Kyle Busch vs. Christopher Bell: By Joe Gibbs Racing’s standards, Bell’s numbers at Phoenix show relative inconsistency. Toyota has too much speed this weekend to bet against the No. 20 car, however. We highlighted RCR’s struggles in practice, and the No. 8 team welcomed three new members to the pit crew ahead of this weekend. Busch can wheel just about anything around any type of track to the limit, but he starts a distant 31st. Go with Bell. Ty Gibbs vs. Alex Bowman: It feels like at any moment, Gibbs will strike for his first series victory. This could be the weekend for that. Bowman was average in practice and had a discouraging 25th-place qualifying run. Gibbs is the heavy favorite here.