THE LINEUP ️
1️⃣ Imagine that -- Christopher Bell back in title-favorite picture 2️⃣ Not in the provisional playoff field yet? You might need to win 3️⃣ Chase Briscoe's pathway to Joe Gibbs Racing, Coach's courting 4️⃣ Drivers to beat this weekend -- on the surface 5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage [caption id="attachment_436501" align="aligncenter" width="1300"]
[caption id="attachment_436502" align="aligncenter" width="1300"] Logan Riely | Getty Images[/caption]
In the history of the NASCAR Playoffs format, the steepest points deficit a driver has overcome with eight or fewer regular-season races remaining is ... three.
Read that again, because I couldn't believe it myself.
It's actually only been accomplished a total of five times, period -- all from a standings position no deeper than 17th at this point. Bubba Wallace was the last one to do it -- last year -- when he was in a three-point hole with seven to go. After a frustrating end to his New Hampshire race, Wallace is once again the 17th-place driver in the playoff standings, meaning that if he were to carve out a 2024 playoff spot on points, it would be by far the largest hole ever climbed out of at this point, and it's a modest 13 points.
In other words, historically speaking, the only true remaining path to the playoffs for any driver currently below the elimination line at this point is a trip to Victory Lane.
Anything can happen in NASCAR, and we've already seen two mildly surprising winners in the Cup Series this year so far, but looking at the rest of the hopefuls, it's tough to see any likely to win over the next eight races. Of the 14 drivers in the top 30 currently outside the playoffs, they have 14 total top-five finishes -- combined.
Of course, one of those drivers is No. 8 Richard Childress Racing driver Kyle Busch, who has won at least one race in each of the previous 19 seasons. He's probably the one you look at the hardest, but the two-time Cup champ is also riding a career-long winless streak and is currently mired in a truly dismal last month of races. RCR announced a shakeup to its competition department on Tuesday afternoon, however, which could potentially be a shot in the arm over the final two months of the regular season.
Rowdy is one of seven full-time drivers to win in 2023 and has yet to take a checkered flag in '24, but one of just three that aren't in the provisional playoff field, along with Michael McDowell and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Team Penske's Joey Logano was also part of this club before New Hampshire, but he leaped over Wallace with 22 points to No. 23's total of three despite finishing just two spots higher in the running order. (Stage points matter, friends.)
All that said, this does feel like the kind of year where this trend could be broken. We've already seen two of the closest finishes in the history of the sport in one season, so who's to say another record-breaking moment isn't right around the corner?
There are certainly some interesting tracks on the horizon with a lot of unknowns, all of them almost entirely different, as well. Here's what's left:
Nashville Superspeedway: 1.333 concrete oval
Chicago Street Course: 2.2 mile, 12-turn street course
Pocono Raceway: 2.5 mile "Tricky Triangle"
Indianapolis Motor Speedway: a return to the 2.5-mile oval after a few years running the infield road course
Richmond Raceway: 0.75-mile short track
Michigan International Speedway: 2-mile high-speed oval
Daytona International Speedway: 2.5-mile high-banked drafting track
Darlington Raceway: 1.366 egg-shaped oval
3. Chase Briscoe's pathway to Joe Gibbs Racing, Coach's courting
On Stacking Pennies with Corey LaJoie, Chase Briscoe details how his contract with Joe Gibbs Racing came to be and his talks with other teams.
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4. Drivers to beat this weekend -- on the surface See the active drivers with wins on the series' three current concrete-surfaced tracks. Does this provide an edge for these drivers, or will they have to dig deeper? [table id=198 /] 5. Catch the pack -- news and notes from around the garage Paint Scheme Preview: Nashville NASCAR betting: Opening odds for Nashville Chase Briscoe to join Joe Gibbs Racing in 2025 on multiyear deal Christopher Bell officially announces Chase Briscoe to Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Larson assesses Joe Gibbs Racing’s lineup after Chase Briscoe addition Andy Petree retires from RCR effective immediately; Keith Rodden named interim competition director Penalty report: Xfinity Series crew member suspended for axle infraction at New Hampshire Late-race collision foils Ryan Blaney, Michael McDowell at New Hampshire
Power Rankings: Larson looking for upper hand at Nashville
NASCAR fully enters wet-weather tire era as drivers, officials deem Loudon completion successful
Analysis: How New Hampshire’s wet-weather conclusion shook up the playoff standings
Most consecutive top-20 finishes to start a season
Chase Elliott, Joey Logano tangle in final-stage wreck at New Hampshire
@nascarcasm: Fake texts to New Hampshire winner Christopher Bell
Which driver is favored to win 2024 title after New Hampshire?
[caption id="attachment_436504" align="aligncenter" width="1300"] Logan Riely | Getty Images[/caption]