THE LINEUP ️
1️⃣ Single-digit races left -- who else might sneak into the playoffs? 2️⃣ Will Toyota regain its footing at the 'Magic Mile?' 3️⃣ Aw Shucks: How Kyle Larson's Iowa race unraveled 4️⃣ Loudon — the track for title winners 5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage [caption id="attachment_435751" align="aligncenter" width="1300"]
Several can still get in on points, but a victory is the surest path to the postseason (not to mention the only path for some of the above), so where might they win to clinch their spots? Honestly, plenty of the driver/track combos listed above stand as reasonable options that could come to fruition.
Busch has shown he can win anywhere throughout his career and it's hard to picture a playoff field without him, but if he gets to Richmond still riding what will then be a career-long 43-race-winless streak and leaves Virginia without a winner's sticker ... well, sorry, Rowdy Nation. Might not be happening this year.
Logano feels like he's right on the verge of joining his teammates in the playoffs, and it could happen this weekend. Jones could pop up and crank out yet another Southern 500 win despite a down year, Berry could continue to show the field how it's done on short tracks with a Richmond romp, Gragson could give the SHR shop something to smile about by rekindling his NXS success at Darlington, you name it.
Heck, any of these guys could pull it off with two drafting-style races remaining. Certainly, you look at recent Daytona 500 champs McDowell and Stenhouse as the most likely among the crop there.
Of course, none of that could happen, too; stock-car racing surprises us every week. That's why we watch, right?
There's lots of racing left before we know who's vying for this year's title -- and on a wide variety of tracks -- and anything goes as things start to heat up. The pressure's on.
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Toyota entered Sunday's race at Iowa Speedway with three drivers in the top six favorites to win the inaugural race at the 0.875-mile short track.
It left the Hawkeye State with one top-10 finisher, and he didn't even score any stage points.
The first portion of the season was all Toyota and Chevrolet -- namely Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports -- with a Ford-backed team not picking up its first win until Darlington in Race 13. Toyota has just one win since then ... and it was a rain-shortened one at that.
There are no long-term concerns here -- such is the ebb and flow of the Next Gen, as we've learned -- and it wouldn't be a shocker to see the manufacturer land two or three drivers in the Championship 4 later this season. It is worth considering, though, if it will be able to reach into its spell book and find the magic once again this weekend in Loudon -- especially considering the track's similarities to fellow 1-mile Phoenix Raceway, where the Championship 4 will take place.
If Sunday again doesn't go well for the Toyota group, it's probably fair to start wondering if it's been caught up to in some respects, and if it will be playing catch-up by the playoffs.
But we're getting ahead of ourselves. It's entirely possible JGR and 23XI Racing (heck, maybe even Legacy Motor Club; Nemechek won the Xfinity race last year) come out and smash everybody this weekend at the "Magic Mile," a longtime stomping ground.
Soon-to-be-mostly-retired Martin Truex Jr. enters as the defending race winner, having won seven of the 16 stages at New Hampshire, including the last four. JGR's 13 wins there make it the track the team has the fifth-most wins at, and last year four of the top eight finishers all drove Toyotas.
Ford is just as formidable at the track -- Team Penske, in particular, but RFK Racing could have a sneaky good weekend as well -- and is likely Toyota's top competition on Sunday, especially given how the tides have turned for the Blue Ovals.
A major factor going for Toyota's prospects this weekend, though? Chevrolets aren't ... great there. Like, at all.
I won't be surprised if Kyle Larson -- a three-time NHMS runner-up -- makes me eat my words here and wins his first lobster, but it's notable that Hendrick heads to a staple of the annual Cup schedule and none of its current lineup of drivers have won at it. That's a rarity. (Byron has the only national series win there among them -- a Truck Series win in 2016 driving for Kyle Busch Motorsports ... in a Toyota.)
In fact, Busch is the only current Chevrolet driver, period, that has a New Hampshire Cup win and, well, you can probably guess which manufacturer that was with.
The struggles do indeed extend beyond just Hendrick. Chevy has just one win at Loudon in the last 17 races (with Kevin Harvick, who switched to Ford the following season). The manufacturer has a whopping 163 Cup wins overall since its last "Magic Mile" victory, coming at the hands of Kasey Kahne in July 2012.
It has led just 18% of Loudon laps since then.
Needless to say, if Toyota drivers leave New Hampshire as empty-handed as they did Iowa ... your ears should perk up a little.
3. Aw shucks, how Kyle Larson lost the points lead
Todd Gordon and Luke Lambert break down how Kyle Larson's day unraveled at Iowa as we head into New Hampshire.
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4. Loudon -- the track for title winners Twelve of the last 15 New Hampshire winners are NASCAR Cup Series champions -- will a fresh face break the trend or will a title winner once again reign supreme? [table id=193 /] 5. Catch the pack -- news and notes from around the garage Paint Scheme Preview: Loudon NASCAR betting: Opening odds for New Hampshire Who should replace Martin Truex Jr. at JGR? Drivers to win in all three national series at a track Ryan Blaney celebrates Iowa breakthrough with heartfelt family gathering
Power Rankings: Logano looking for home-cooked lobster at Loudon
Most consecutive top-20 finishes to start a season
Three Up, Three Down: Drivers in focus leaving Iowa
@nascarcasm: Fake texts to Iowa winner Ryan Blaney
Which driver is favored to win 2024 title after Iowa?
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