Pocono Turning Point: Next surprise playoff driver, the trick to winning this weekend, more

Pat DeCola

2 years ago

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Here’s what’s happening in the world of NASCAR with Chicago in the rearview and Pocono Raceway (Sun., 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC) right around the corner.

THE LINEUP ️

1️⃣ Who could be the next surprise playoff driver? 2️⃣ The trick to winning at Pocono? Beat the Toyotas 3️⃣ Jeff Gordon on No. 48's long-term prospects 4️⃣ Never over till it's over at the 'Tricky Triangle' 5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage [caption id="attachment_438192" align="aligncenter" width="1300"] Brittney Wilbur | NASCAR Digital Media[/caption] 1. Who could be the next surprise entrant to the playoffs? With a handful of playoff spots there for the taking, most of the drivers around the elimination line are battling bouts of inconsistency -- except for one. Well, how about that? Last week, we posited here about the potential for the No. 48 car missing the playoffs for the second year in a row -- and Alex Bowman immediately goes out and punches his ticket to the postseason at Chicago, snapping an 80-race skid since his last trip to Victory Lane. For the second week in a row that moves a driver sitting on the elimination line upward in the standings, pushing some big names -- Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher, in particular -- into some quite uncomfortable territory. Each has a reasonable cushion, with Buescher's +45 over Bubba Wallace slotting him in as the 16th and final driver, but six races remain, and those leads are in no way safe. Bowman's win was unexpected, but not surprising. His Hendrick Motorsports teammates were among the favorites and he's come close on road courses before. Not to mention Hendrick has now won all three such races this year, as the clear team to beat on them -- which is important to know, with two of them now in the playoffs. The victory did, however, feel like just the appetizer to a main course of potential surprises over the next six races as the bubble gets more interesting and drivers get more desperate. [caption id="attachment_438208" align="alignright" width="640"] James Gilbert | Getty Images[/caption] What's so interesting is that of the four above and four below the current elimination line, almost all of them have been struggling of late. Martin Truex Jr., the top driver in the standings without a win, has just one top 10 in the last eight races. Teammate Ty Gibbs right below him was strong at Chicago, but his third-place run there was just his first top 10 in six races. Ross Chastain has led in just two races since Kansas, Chris Buescher has been close lately but can't seem to break through to lead at the end and Bubba Wallace, minus-45 to the RFK Racing driver, has just a pair of top 10s in the last 11 races. Continuing on, Chase Briscoe rode the high of a wild and newsy weekend at New Hampshire to a runner-up finish but otherwise has five finishes outside the top 20 in the last seven contests, and Kyle Busch finally picked up a top 10 at Chicago for his first such result in the last eight. Even if any of these drivers should wind up making it (and some more than likely will) this obviously isn't the kind of consistency that leads to a lengthy playoff run. But that was only seven drivers -- and there's an eighth worth mentioning who has been quite consistent, and his name is Todd Gilliland. Not only has the No. 38 driver not finished worse than 17th since April, but he's also culled together a very Chase Elliott-esque top-20 streak of nine races, the longest in Front Row Motorsports' history. He's finished better than he's started in each of the last seven races, finished on the lead lap in all but four this year and actually owns the fourth-best average finish (12.33) over the last six weeks, ahead of Elliott (12.83), and right behind Tyler Reddick (7.59), Buescher (10.83) and defending champ Ryan Blaney (12.17). Gilliland was a top-15 finisher at Pocono last year, for what it's worth, and if you're looking for who might be the next "surprise" entrant to the 2024 playoffs, he's certainly the driver currently not locked in that's building the biggest head of steam at the moment.

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2. The trick to Pocono? Beating the Toyotas After a surging Ford camp has won more than the rest lately, Toyota will likely be the manufacturer to beat at in Pennsylvania.

Looking ahead to this weekend at Pocono, one can generally expect a more standard weekend than the wet-and-messy, wonderful madness we just witnessed at the Chicago Street Course, but don't be surprised if more twists are in store at the "Tricky Triangle." The large, Long Pond, Pennsylvania track is no stranger to shocking winners and wild finishes, and as you'll see in the below table -- you often don't know who will win based on early-race success. Ford is on a hot streak lately after an admittedly quiet start, winning four of the last eight races -- all with different drivers -- after going winless for the first 12 races of the season. Chevrolet just won one of the season's premier races, continuing to capitalize on road courses and marking Hendrick as just the second team to see all of its full-time drivers win this year. But this weekend? Well, this weekend feels like if either of those manufacturers wants to win, it's going to have to go through Toyota. Denny Hamlin is one race away from tying the second-longest top-10-less streak of his career, but, barring catastrophe, that is absolutely going to end on Sunday. No. 11 is the literal winningest driver in Pocono's lengthy history, with his record-breaking seventh coming just last year to give him victories in three of the last seven there. At the very least, we can expect him to find the front of the field at some point, having led in a whopping nine consecutive races at the 2.5-mile triangle. Beyond Hamlin, however, are a pair of Toyota compatriots, one his teammate and the other his employee, lining up as arguably the hottest pair in the series at the moment in Christopher Bell and Reddick, respectively. Bell, the New Hampshire winner, has led 29% of all laps in the seven races since the All-Star Race and looks like a clear contender to return to the Championship 4 for a third consecutive season. It's easy to envision him becoming the season's first four-time winner on Sunday. He's putting in a career year and needs just four laps led -- which he'll almost certainly get this weekend -- to check off 600 laps led in a season for the first time in his career, and we're just over the halfway point. Reddick has equally come on super strong of late and it's a shock to still see Talladega as his lone trip to Victory Lane this year. No. 45 is tied for the most top fives (eight) and owns the most top 10s (13) outright in the entire series, propelling himself with consistent speed to gain 41 points in the standings over the last three races alone. (Let's also not forget about Truex Jr., a constant at the front of the field at Pocono and two-time winner there, himself.)

But then again, five of the last eight races have been won by drivers earning their first win of the season, with three of those five entering the race as the last driver above the elimination line, in 16th place. That driver is currently Buescher, in a Ford. And, naturally, where did No. 17's first of his five career wins come? Pocono, of course.

3. Gordon on why Chicago was a 'huge day' for No. 48 long-term NASCAR Hall of Famer Jeff Gordon talks about the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team after its win at Chicago and what that does for the team's confidence.

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4. Never over till it's over at the 'Tricky Triangle' Five of the last eight Pocono winners finished 29th or worse in Stage 1, while dramatically making gains the rest of the race from there. [table id=204 /] 5. Catch the pack -- news and notes from around the garage Paint Scheme Preview: Pocono NASCAR betting: Opening odds for Pocono Pressure is mounting with another playoff spot taken NASCAR Senior VP on Chicago strategy: ‘Teams made really good decisions’ Noah Gragson to join Front Row Motorsports on multiyear deal in 2025 Spire Motorsports signs Rodney Childers to multiyear deal Penalty report: Bubba Wallace fined after post-race incident Analysis: Alex Bowman, No. 48 crew scuttle speculation with long journey back to Chicago triumph Three Up, Three Down: Drivers in focus leaving Chicago Kyle Petty breaks down wet and wild Chicago Street Race Conor Daly set for trio of Truck Series starts with Niece Motorsports

Power Rankings: Kyle Busch could build some heat as playoff pressure sizzles Early contact between Bowman, Wallace leads to dustup on cool-down lap Most consecutive top-20 finishes to start a season NASCAR Insiders Roundtable: Generations, Part 1 airing Monday on YouTube @nascarcasm: Fake texts to Chicago winner Alex Bowman Which driver is favored to win 2024 title after Nashville? [caption id="attachment_438195" align="aligncenter" width="1300"] Getty Images[/caption]