The seeding is done, the bracket is set and the drivers are ready. All that’s left now is for the inaugural NASCAR In-Season Challenge to hit the track, beginning this weekend at EchoPark Speedway (formerly known as Atlanta Motor Speedway) -- introducing a fascinating new dynamic into the summer stretch of the Cup Series schedule.
Seeds were determined based on a three-race qualifying window at Michigan, Mexico City and Pocono; now it’s win-or-go-home all the way to the championship. And while the spotlight naturally shines on top seeds like Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott, surprises will be inevitable in a knockout format like this.
RELATED: Fill out a bracket for the In-Season ChallengeSo which underdogs are most poised to bust the bracket? To find out, we ran 2,000 simulations of the full tournament using a version of my track type-adjusted forecasting model. See below for each driver’s odds of advancing through the various rounds -- highlighting just how wide-open this first edition of the In-Season Challenge might be.
(For more about how the forecast system works, click here.)
Let’s dig into the six biggest bracket-busters according to the model -- drivers ranked among the bottom half of seeds (i.e., Nos. 17-32) who have the highest odds of making the quarterfinal round and shaking up this new NASCAR tradition right away.
No. 18 William Byron
Standings rank: 1st 1st-round opponent: No. 15 Ryan Preece Round of 8 odds: 38.1% Championship odds: 9.4%
Not only is Byron our biggest bracket-buster, but he’s also the favorite to win the whole tournament. How did that happen? Well, for one thing, he tops the standings for a reason -- Byron is arguably the best and most consistent driver in the sport, leading in average Driver Rating by a wide margin over Hamlin (103.8 versus 96.7) this season. But he also benefits from a lucky draw in the seeding. First-round foe Ryan Preece has enjoyed a breakout campaign, but he’s no match for the two-time defending Daytona 500 winner on drafting tracks like Atlanta, while potential second-round Chicago opponent Chase Briscoe is still working on his road-racing bona fides -- even though they are improving as of late. It wouldn’t be until a possible quarterfinal showdown with teammate Kyle Larson that Byron would face a fellow championship heavy-hitter, and Larson could get knocked out earlier than that by a tougher path that includes Tyler Reddick and possibly Ryan Blaney. It’s tough to think of the points leader as a “Cinderella”, but things are set up for him to make a deep run from the No. 18 seed.
No. 25 Joey Logano
Standings rank: 10th 1st-round opponent: No. 8 Alex Bowman Round of 8 odds: 31.4% Championship odds: 4.5%
Logano benefits right away from the confluence of track types and seeding matchups, with the opening round being hosted at Atlanta and the opposing No. 8 seed being Alex Bowman. Logano, of course, has won twice in the past five races in Atlanta including a clutch victory in last year’s playoffs, and he is generally one of the best drivers in the game when it comes to drafting tracks. Compound that with Bowman’s merely OK record (77.8 Driver Rating in Next Gen era) at those tracks in recent years, including a mediocre run at Atlanta -- where he’s finished 26th or worse in four of his past six -- and Logano looks like the head-to-head favorite, regardless of seeding. The outlook remains bright for the three-time series champion from there, as neither driver in the No. 9 vs. No. 24 matchup (Bubba Wallace or Daniel Suárez) is a road-course ace to worry about at Chicago. Even No. 1 seed Denny Hamlin, whom Logano would face in the quarterfinal round if everything else goes chalk, isn’t the road racer he used to be. As always when it comes to these playoff-style situations, don’t be shocked if Logano shows up to crash the party.
No. 19 Austin Cindric
Standings rank: 15th 1st-round opponent: No. 14 Zane Smith Round of 8 odds: 30.9% Championship odds: 3.1%
Cindric finished 31st at Michigan a few weeks back -- but from an In-Season Challenge perspective, he is also one of the biggest winners there. That’s because Zane Smith, who currently ranks 25th in the full-season standings and 24th in average Driver Rating, finished seventh, causing him to land in the 14-seed slot -- and a first-round date with Cindric (who’s 15th in the standings and 11th in Driver Rating) — when the seeding shook out. Anything can happen at a superspeedway-like track of course, but like Byron, Cindric is a former Daytona 500 winner and one of the best there is at pack racing. And then, if he manages to advance, Cindric would get a pair of road courses (Chicago Street and Sonoma) to test his other specialty. Few drivers have the combination of drafting and road-racing skills to suit the first three races of the In-Season Challenge quite like Cindric does.
MORE: Information about all 32 In-Season Challenge driversNo. 23 Tyler Reddick
Standings rank: 7th 1st-round opponent: No. 10 Kyle Larson Round of 8 odds: 23.8% Championship odds: 4.1%
The seeding process didn’t exactly bring good news for Reddick: looming right away in the opening round is Kyle Larson, one of the last drivers on the planet anyone would choose to face in a head-to-head race. And indeed, Reddick has the worst odds to escape the Round of 32 (45.4%) of any driver currently among the top 12 of the regular season Cup standings. Then, it’s off to face the winner between No. 7 Ryan Blaney and No. 26 Carson Hocevar -- no slouch of a matchup itself. After that, however, he benefits some from the probability that Byron is taken out by a lesser driver before the quarterfinals. Things clear up quite a bit from there as Reddick can get back to his trademark ovals for the semifinal and final races of the challenge. Reddick will be an underdog throughout this process, but he’s also the best driver seeded outside the top 20, making him a dangerous opponent for higher-seeded drivers.
No. 17 Brad Keselowski
Standings rank: 30th 1st-round opponent: No. 16 Kyle Busch Round of 8 odds: 23.6% Championship odds: 2.2%
Keselowski picked the right time to score a couple of top 10s during the three seeding races as it landed him with a far higher seed (17th) than would be expected from his No. 30 placement in the full-season standings. In turn, that earned him a first-round matchup with another former Cup champ who’s currently navigating a tough season: Kyle Busch. Neither of the two are what they used to be on drafting tracks, so this is close to a 50-50 matchup in the odds (Busch is a very slight 52% favorite), very winnable for Keselowski. And while top overall seed Denny Hamlin likely awaits in the second round, he’s another old Keselowski rival whose road-racing form isn’t as good as it once was, opening a sliver of hope for an upset that propels the No. 6 Ford further in this bracket than anybody expects.
[caption id="attachment_476400" align="aligncenter" width="1300"]No. 22 AJ Allmendinger
Standings rank: 17th 1st-round opponent: No. 11 Michael McDowell Round of 8 odds: 23.4% Championship odds: 1.5%
Allmendinger would be nowhere near this high in the bracket-buster rankings if the schedule didn’t play to his strengths as much as it does. While he's never been quite as comfortable zooming around superspeedways as one would think for a former IndyCar guy -- his career Driver Rating on the track type is solidly below-average at 60.9 -- he could have drawn tougher opponents than Michael McDowell, who has comparatively had a down year both overall and on drafting tracks. So Allmendinger will have a fighting chance to win his opening matchup. And then if he advances, one of the better road-course specialists in Cup will be unleashed on the Chicago Street Course and Sonoma, the latter being a place where he’s finished sixth in each of the previous two seasons. Add in a winnable potential second-round matchup with the overseeded Ty Gibbs (the No. 6 seed in the bracket and 23rd in the standings), and Allmendinger is a surprisingly real threat to enter the quarterfinals -- if not further -- with his title hopes still intact.
Best of the Rest: Josh Berry (20.9% odds to make Round of 8); Carson Hocevar (19.1%); Todd Gilliland (18.6%); Erik Jones (18.3%)