1. Chase Briscoe tops title talk -- but don't forget about his teammates
The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing driver entered the season as the third-most-likely among the team to win the championship, but he just jolted to the top after a rousing Southern 500 win to open the playoffs. His teammates, though? You haven't heard the last from them. Chase Briscoe took what you thought you knew about how these playoffs were going to go and completely shredded it Sunday night at Darlington. The No. 19 driver went from a “yeah, I could see that happening” kind of contender to “holy cow, this guy is the favorite” in short order, dramatically shifting his 2025 campaign into overdrive after sputtering out of the gates in his first year at Joe Gibbs Racing. Entering the season as the presumptive third in the pecking order among JGR drivers as most likely to claim the title, Briscoe’s second-half surge -- and really since about Kansas, in May -- has vaulted him firmly into the title conversation, and Darlington ensured it now starts with him. The Indiana native’s second straight Southern 500 triumph was emphatic, leading a career-best 309 laps. His dominance extends beyond that single race, however, boasting the best 12-race stretch of any driver since Mexico with first-place rankings in average speed per NASCAR Insights, average finish (11th), points per race (34.7), top-five finishes (6), stage wins (4), and laps led (536). I’m not here to further cement Briscoe’s favorite status, though -- NASCAR.com’s Cameron Richardson did that on site at Darlington -- but instead to mention that his teammates, the ones who at different times have each looked like Championship 4 locks this year, are coming for that spot. Denny Hamlin, participating in his 19th playoffs and in search of his fifth Championship 4 appearance, is not locked into the Round of 12 yet but is not far off Briscoe’s tail, with a hefty plus-43 points above the cutline after finishing seventh at Darlington. He’s also collected more wins and top 10s this year than Briscoe, and, apart from sealing the deal at the end, arguably has a better handle on this playoff system than any other driver in its history. Riding two straight runner-ups at Gateway, he may just be the favorite this weekend and, if he capitalizes on it, could immediately leapfrog Briscoe based on history and upcoming tracks alone. There’s also Christopher Bell, another vital cog in JGR’s 2025 title aspirations -- and a driver that was essentially penciled into the Championship 4 just four races into the season, because he won three of ‘em. Though Bell has just three top 10s in the 11 races since Mexico, this is still a championship-caliber team with a driver/crew-chief combo to match. Bell and Co. also boast a strong record at St. Louis, averaging a 9.0 average finish in the three Cup races there and leading 80 laps in the most recent one. A dismal Darlington will have this team digging deep for a rebound this weekend, and Bell’s sustained competitiveness (despite the weak actual finishes of late) keeps him a clear contender. They’re both likely to be in the mix for the win at Gateway, and, should either win, the spotlight immediately shifts back to them, especially with each having some of their best tracks remaining in the weeks ahead. Although Briscoe is the current flame, teammates like Hamlin and Bell honestly look like they could be his biggest competition at the moment, especially considering Chase Elliott’s P17 was Hendrick Motorsports’ top Darlington finish and the powerhouse team, thus far, hasn't found the strongest hold on this weekend’s 1.25-mile track, still in its Cup infancy. Onto Gateway! [caption id="attachment_486200" align="aligncenter" width="1300"]2. Below the cut and running out of time -- desperation sets in for some at Gateway
Darlington brought the playoff chaos early, with several contenders running into catastrophic issues at the track "Too Tough to Tame." With a fresh playoff track and its unknowns ahead, who might rebound, and who might sink deeper?
An early dose of playoff chaos was delivered Sunday at Darlington, leaving key contenders below the cutline and in desperate need of redemption as they head to World Wide Technology Raceway. With only two races remaining in the Round of 16, the intensity is already at a fever pitch as drivers battle the pressure of securing their advancement to the Round of 12 ... or at least not digging the hole any deeper, for some.
The St. Louis-area track, a relatively fresh Cup Series venue and a first-time playoff locale, looms as both an opportunity and a threat for those fighting for survival.
Darlington's grueling nature resulted in multiple run-ins and pit-road mishaps that severely damaged the playoff hopes of some drivers; some were able to recover, but not all. Austin Dillon ended the race with a 23rd-place finish after contact with Ryan Blaney on Lap 210, dropping him eight points below the cutline in a race he needed to maximize. Alex Bowman suffered a catastrophic 40-second pit stop due to a disconnected air line at Lap 69, resulting in a 31st-place finish to live 19 points below the cutline. Joey Logano, the defending three-time Cup champion and former St. Louis winner, had a 20th-place finish and slipped just below the cutoff.
Adding to the list, Chase Elliott suffered a costly 16-second pit stop adjustment, resulting in a 17th-place finish -- again, somehow a team-high -- while Bubba Wallace needed to overcome a pit-stop issue of his own to finish sixth.
Heck, Josh Berry all but had his playoffs end on Lap 1. The ‘Lady’ was angry that day, my friends, and she made sure the playoff drivers knew it.
And now, the desperation sets in.
MORE: NASCAR Cup title favorites have work to do after fraught Southern 500
Dillon (-8 points), Bowman (-19) and Berry (-19) aren’t yet in “must-win” mode, but there just isn’t much time to count on making up that ground; winning is always going to be the safest, yet most difficult path. But if you’re a playoff driver struggling to string together consistent finishes or doing your best just to wade through poor pit performances it likely means, unfortunately, you’re gonna face the very real risk of elimination, and a lot sooner than you think.
Bowman's St. Louis results also include no top-10 finishes (with an average finish outside the top 20). Combined with just one finish better than 20th in the past four weeks, it signals potential continued difficulties on this demanding track and an earlier exit than his Round of 8 miss last year.
Similarly, the under-pressure Dillon, whose last few races have been marked by misfortune and contact after looking like a potential contender at Richmond, will need to overcome hurdles to avoid playoff elimination.
Though Team Penske’s St. Louis excellence could theoretically rub off on Berry in an aligned Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford, he faces long odds to rebound at Gateway, especially against the track's demanding conditions and competitive field in his maiden playoff stint.
Gateway represents a critical juncture in the NASCAR playoffs, where desperation and determination are on a collision course, as drivers are sharply divided between those poised to rebound with strong track history and those who risk sinking even deeper. The unforgiving nature of the track, combined with the psychological pressure of playoff survival, ensures that the drama will only intensify as the Round of 16 edges closer to its climax, before we even reach the showcase race that is Bristol Motor Speedway under the lights.
The stakes are immediately high at one of NASCAR’s newest playoff battlegrounds, and the question remains: Who will rise to the occasion -- and who will fall farther behind?
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3. Petty on ‘monumental’ Southern 500 victory for Briscoe
Kyle Petty dissects Chase Briscoe's Southern 500 win from Darlington and why it's so hard to go back-to-back in the Next Gen era.[ndmsvideo vid="486095" play="false"]