Turning Point: Is Hendrick’s best chance for Phoenix actually Chase Elliott?

Here's what's happening in NASCAR with Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the rearview and Sunday's YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway up next (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). HOW TO WATCH: NASCAR on NBC, USA | Driver Cams on HBO Max

1. Is Hendrick Motorsports' best shot for Phoenix actually Chase Elliott?

Despite how strong William Byron and Kyle Larson looked at Las Vegas -- and the fact that No. 9 is currently below the cutline -- the 2020 champ might be the Hendrick driver with the clearest Championship 4 path. Hendrick Motorsports stalwarts Kyle Larson and William Byron flexed on the field this past Sunday with plenty of laps out front at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Larson landed a runner-up to walk away with a strong points cushion, and Byron, unfortunately, got caught up in a late, race-ending wreck, but has only a 15-point deficit. The pair remains Hendrick's most likely championship hopefuls per the latest NASCAR DraftKings odds, but is there another among them that's actually more likely to compete for the title in a few weeks at Phoenix Raceway? At first glance, Chase Elliott's 23-point deficit after a no-laps-led P18 in the Round of 8 opener doesn't scream "championship imminent," but No. 9 has a real shot to gain momentum over the next two weekends that he could ride all the way to title No. 2. It may even tip the scales to make him the most likely Hendrick driver remaining to punch his ticket to Phoenix. Chase in the hole? No problem. Elliott’s record at Talladega Superspeedway, the next challenge in this playoff stretch where strategy and survival dominate, is a critical piece of the puzzle. He's a two-time winner at the sport's most mercurial venue and has been remarkably consistent (a hallmark, notably, of his whole 2025 season), nearly averaging a top-10 finish across the last seven there (10.85), including a win in this race in 2022 and a top five earlier this spring. [caption id="attachment_491626" align="alignright" width="400"]James Gilbert | Getty Images[/caption] Across five drafting-track races in 2025, Elliott has earned 173 points -- second most among all drivers, not just those in the playoffs -- and boasts four drafting-track wins in his career, including one earlier this year at EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta). This point haul sits just behind Larson’s 177 tally and well above Byron’s 150. Larson, while strong overall and sitting comfortably 35 points above the cutline, has only three top-five finishes at Talladega in 21 starts and has yet to secure a win at any drafting track in his Cup career, often finding himself caught up in the chaos. The two-time defending Daytona 500 winner Byron has excelled on drafting tracks, including a team-high five wins on them and five consecutive top-10 finishes at Talladega ... but none of those victories came in Alabama. Of the three, the edge would appear to go to Elliott for at least the weekend ahead. RELATED: Talladega entry list | Full weekend schedule Just as important, though, is the race at Martinsville Speedway a week later. The unique, pressure-packed short-track racing at Martinsville demands precise car control, flawless pit strategy and a fearless mindset -- and it's where Elliott became a championship-worthy driver, notching his first Championship 4 berth there in 2020 on his way to the title. He's finished in the top four there each of the last three times out, so expect to see him at the front of the field at some point; Elliott has averaged 108.2 laps led across the last 10 Martinsville races. Byron, despite being a two-time Martinsville winner, can be streaky there with only two top-10 finishes in his last five visits. Larson has shown promising consistency with six straight top-six Martinsville finishes, including a win in 2023, but his peak results slightly trail Elliott’s dominance there. No. 5 has never led more than 86 laps in any Martinsville Cup race. Crucially for Elliott, precedent shows that drivers with a points deficit this late in the playoffs have still navigated their way into Championship 4 with crucial wins. The points obviously matter, but we're at the point that a win-and-in scenario is not out of the equation for any remaining playoff driver, either of these weekends. The fact that the next two tracks happen to be among Elliott's best bodes well for him and crew chief Alan Gustafson. Elliott’s 2025 campaign further bolsters his case. After a slow simmer to start the season, he’s found renewed top-tier form with more wins this season than the past two combined. He also advanced to the Round of 8 with a clutch Kansas victory, making him the most recent winner for the team. With his experience and success on these pivotal circuits, he has a clear statistical and historical pathway to Phoenix, even if he's starting this stretch below the cutline. The 21-time Cup winner's demonstrated ability to excel on the toughest tracks left in the playoffs, combined with his championship-level pedigree and strength shown through the playoffs, makes him the driver to watch as Hendrick looks to secure its annual berth(s) in the Championship 4. [caption id="attachment_491625" align="aligncenter" width="1300"]Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images[/caption]

2. Ranking Round of 8 drivers' stress levels entering Talladega

As NASCAR's biggest wild-card track looms, playoff drivers face varying degrees of anxiety based on their points position and history at the 2.66-mile superspeedway. Here's how each contender might be feeling as they approach Sunday's chaos.

Stress-free zone

Denny Hamlin -- The only driver who can truly sleep peacefully this week. Already locked into the Championship 4 with his Las Vegas victory, Hamlin can race without fear of points consequences. Ironically, this freedom might make him dangerous to everyone else's playoff hopes, as he can afford to be aggressive when others must play it safe at a track where he's won.

Surprisingly calm

Chase Elliott -- Despite sitting 23 points below the cutline, Elliott might be the most relaxed driver in a precarious position a guy has ever been. His two Talladega victories and plus top-15 finishes in six of his last seven races there provide genuine confidence he'll at least be able to make it cleanly to the end and be in the mix for the win. More importantly, he leads all playoff drivers in average points per race at Talladega (31.5), meaning even without a win, he can expect to gain on his competitors before heading to Martinsville, another great track for him. For a driver who needs to make up points, his comfort blanket is king-sized. William Byron -- The 15-point deficit looks manageable when you consider Byron's Talladega mastery of late. His 13.67 average finish at the track leads all active drivers in the Next Gen era, and he's finished top 10 in five straight races there. With five career drafting track wins, Byron has the credentials to not just survive Talladega but also vault into Championship 4 contention with a strong finish and/or win. The 40 points he gained to the bubble in this race last year were the most any driver had collected at 'Dega from 2017-2024.

Cautiously optimistic

Kyle Larson -- The 35-point cushion provides breathing room, but Larson's Talladega history tells a more complex story. Despite leading the field with a 9.6 average finish on drafting tracks this season, he has just three top-five finishes in 21 Talladega starts in his career. However, recent form suggests improvement -- a second-place finish in April and consistent performance on superspeedways this year should keep his stress levels manageable. As long as he can stay out of any "Big Ones." MORE: Playoff Pulse: Who's hot, not?

Moderate anxiety

Christopher Bell -- Twenty points above the cutline sounds comfortable until you examine Bell's Talladega struggles. His 20.9 average finish there is his worst at any active track, with only three top 10s in 11 starts. Two finishes of 35th or worse in his last three Talladega races -- both accident DNFs -- reveal the volatility that could have Bell and the No. 20 team sweating, despite his points buffer. Chase Briscoe -- Similar to his JGR teammate, a 15-point advantage feels less secure given Briscoe's limited Talladega success. Only two top 10s in nine starts, with a best finish of fourth, creates uncertainty. However, his 20 laps led in April in his first race there with his new team (more than his previous eight starts combined) hints at improving superspeedway race craft and better overall equipment that could ease some concerns.

High-stress territory

Joey Logano -- The 24-point deficit becomes alarming when paired with Logano's recent Talladega futility, despite three wins there in his career. Only one top-10 finish in his last 12 races at the Alabama track, with nine finishes of 19th or worse in his last 10 attempts, suggests Sunday could be a difficult day for the three-time and defending champion. His 24.8 average points per race at Talladega in the Next Gen era ranks in the bottom half of the playoff field as well.

Sweatin' bullets

Ryan Blaney -- The 2023 champion faces a storm of pressure after another snafu at Las Vegas. His 31-point deficit is quite beefy, compounded by his recent catastrophic Talladega results. The cruel irony? Blaney has three career Talladega wins, proving he knows how to conquer the track, but recent struggles (32.0 average finish in his last three races vs. 1.67 in his previous three before that) suggest dominance is often fleeting at drafting tracks, and stretches of turmoil spare no one. The fact that everybody knows he can pull this off and many will expect him to only adds to the intensity. The beauty -- and terror -- of Talladega lies in its ability to render these stress levels meaningless within a single turn. But as teams prepare for Sunday, the combination of points pressure and track history creates a fascinating psychological landscape where confidence and panic often depend more on past performance than current standings -- and can be shaken up at any moment.