Analysis: Drivers to watch for 2026 In-Season Challenge

With the field now set following Sunday’s Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway, NASCAR’s second In-Season Challenge is ready to begin, giving 32 drivers a chance to battle through five races for a $1 million prize at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Getting hot at the right time can change everything in NASCAR and drivers know that five strong races could turn a long-shot contender into a millionaire, with last year’s finals being determined between No. 6 seed Ty Gibbs and the final driver into the tournament, Ty Dillon. The road to glory will test drivers across nearly every discipline in NASCAR. The In-Season Challenge opens June 28 at Sonoma Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT Sports, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) before shifting to the returning intermediate layout of Chicagoland Speedway, the high-speed drafting action of EchoPark Speedway, a historic stop at North Wilkesboro Speedway and a finale at the iconic Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Let’s see who could prevail with seeding finalized! RELATED: Sign up here BUY STOCK Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota Seed: 1 Comment: There have been no weaknesses in Reddick’s game in 2026, leading the regular-season championship battle since hoisting the Harley J. Early trophy back in February at Daytona International Speedway. The five-time victor this year has proven to excel at all types of race tracks, with the lone exception being short tracks, and even that has improved from prior years. The No. 45 team feels like a near lock for at least the semifinals. Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota Seed: 2 Comment: Hamlin is white-hot, winning the last three Cup Series races before the seeds were locked. Admittedly, his biggest weakness remains road courses, but an opening-round matchup with Ty Dillon leaves optimism. And then when the series returns to turning left, nobody is better currently. Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet Seed: 4 Comment: While Elliott hasn’t won a road-course race in the Next Gen car, he’s always formidable and should stay clear of a first-round matchup with Noah Gragson. The No. 9 team has also flown under the radar at intermediate tracks in 2026, best in camp at HMS. Elliott should be considered one of the favorites for the entire tournament, though he does have potential contests against Bubba Wallace and Ty Gibbs to be among the last four. Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota Seed: 5 Comment: You can’t forget about the reigning winner! The primary difference is that Gibbs had an atrocious start to the 2025 season, whereas he’s a bona fide championship threat in 2026. This set of tracks lays out perfectly for the No. 54 team, with the biggest question mark being EchoPark. [caption id="attachment_515243" align="aligncenter" width="1300"]James Gilbert | Getty Images[/caption] STAY AWAY FROM:  Carson Hocevar, Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet Seed: 9 Comment: Unless there’s absolute chaos at Sonoma, it’s tough to see Hocevar advancing through the first round. He goes into road course races expecting to be the weak link of the No. 77 team, with finishes of 28th and 31st in two attempts this year. Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota Seed: 13 Comment: The luck of the draw did no favors for Wallace. He has improved tremendously at road courses but has an average finish of 24.0 at Sonoma through seven starts. Meanwhile, he’s pinned against Michael McDowell, who has never finished worse than seventh in the Next Gen car at the 1.99-mile road course. Joey Logano, Team Penske, No. 22 Ford Seed: 18 Comment: Logano should never be discredited for his relentlessness. He might even sneak through to Round 2 in a contest against Erik Jones, who has never finished better than 19th in the Next Gen at Sonoma. But a likely matchup against Hamlin at Chicagoland, an area where Ford has struggled mightily in 2026, doesn’t bode well for the three-time champion. Ryan Preece, RFK Racing, No. 60 Ford Seed: 19 Comment: Preece may have received the worst draw at Sonoma, as he'll have the unenviable task of trying to beat Shane van Gisbergen, arguably the best road-course driver to ever strap into a Cup Series car. Good luck! [caption id="attachment_515244" align="aligncenter" width="1300"]David Jensen | Getty Images[/caption] DARK HORSE:  Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing, No. 97 Chevrolet Seed: 14 Comment: Van Gisbergen has sailed to victory in six of the last seven road-course events, and has improved his craft tremendously at ovals, scoring a personal best fifth-place effort in the most recent intermediate race at Nashville Superspeedway. Fast forward to EchoPark and anything can happen, meaning it’s not unrealistic to see the No. 97 car in the semifinals at North Wilkesboro. Zane Smith, Front Row Motorsports, No. 38 Ford Seed: 24 Comment: Let’s go off the beaten path with this pick. Smith grew up racing karts and has a competitor in Hocevar (road courses aren’t his specialty) in the opening round. The No. 38 team hasn’t seen the deserved results in recent weeks, wrecking out at Michigan International Speedway and Pocono while competing inside the top 10. With either Daniel Suárez or Front Row teammate Todd Gilliland waiting in the wings at Chicagoland, Smith is a real sleeper to advance to the quarterfinals. [caption id="attachment_515246" align="aligncenter" width="1300"]Chris Graythen | Getty Images[/caption]