Racing Insights: Who will simmer at Sonoma in the Cup Series’ last road race of the season?

The final road course of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season arrives at a pivotal time. The jockeying for the 16 slots in the all-important Chase postseason grid is ramping up, just as the second annual In-Season Challenge tips off for the circuit's top 32. NASCAR's top division will go road racing in the Golden State for the second consecutive week, with Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT Sports, truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) ready to set sail from scenic Sonoma Raceway. Nine regular-season races remain before the Chase field is determined, and the 14th through 20th spots in the Cup Series standings are separated by just 26 points. RELATED: Full starting lineup | What to Watch: Sonoma The potential for major movement in the provisional playoff standings is there, plus the possibility of a handful of bracket-busting finishes for the midseason tournament field. Here’s a look at a handful of drivers to keep an eye on and the full projected results for Sunday’s Cup Series race in Wine Country.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

SHANE VAN GISBERGEN: A sure-fire watch whenever the Cup Series turns its attention to road-racing events, SVG enters Sunday's start at Sonoma aiming to stoke a recent trend. The first-ever race at Naval Base Coronado began with promise from the pole position, but a mid-race crash left a sour taste and a 38th-place outcome. He'll be a favorite, given his seven Cup wins in 15 road-course starts, but there will be some urgency with his slip to 17th in the Cup Series standings -- just outside the provisional Chase grid. AJ ALLMENDINGER: The Kaulig Racing veteran will take the green flag for his 500th Cup Series start this weekend, and his road-racing prowess should make him a race-day factor. Allmendinger's three career Cup wins have all come on road courses, but the one that's eluded him is Sonoma, where he is 0-for-14 with surprisingly no top-five finishes in his premier-series tenure. Only two other drivers have won in their 500th Cup start -- Richard Petty (Trenton, 1970) and Matt Kenseth (New Hampshire, 2013). DANIEL SUÁREZ: The Spire Motorsports newbie may have trended cold on road courses in recent years, but Suárez has been one of the Cup Series' most improved in his first year with the No. 7 Chevrolet group. Halfway through last season, Suárez sat 29th in the Cup Series standings; just one race shy of the 2026 campaign's midpoint, he's eighth with a crown-jewel win in the Coca-Cola 600 already in the bank. He's gone three straight Sonoma races without a top-10 result, but scored his first Cup win there in 2022. MORE: Saturday recap | At-track photos: Sonoma

FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR 2026 TOYOTA/SAVE MART 350 (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT Sports)

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