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SVG’s oval breakthrough is historic — and it’s changing The Chase race

Neil Paine

Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images

Because of how spectacularly dominant Shane van Gisbergen's early successes were on road and street courses -- literally earning him the title of NASCAR's road-course GOAT after roughly a dozen starts on the twisty tracks (of which he won half!) -- it made his less-stellar results on the ovals stand out more. From 2023 through 2025, SVG made 12 starts on road courses and 38 everywhere else. In the former, he had six wins, an average finish of 7.6, an Adjusted Points+ index of 279 (meaning his finishing quality was 179% better than Cup average) and a Driver Rating of 121.9. In the latter, his average finish was 25.0, with an Adjusted Points+ of 48 (i.e., 52% worse than average) and an average rating of 50.0, numbers that paled in comparison to his road dominance. Among modern-era drivers (debuting since 1972), nobody had bigger gaps in their Adjusted Points+ or Driver Rating on road courses versus all other track types through their first 12 career road races -- and it wasn't remotely close:
As great of a race-car driver as SVG is, it seemed like that might forever be his fate -- sure, maybe he could at least improve some on non-road courses, but van Gisbergen always seemed destined to be a specialist first and foremost. But just like when Happy Gilmore learned how to putt, the rest of NASCAR has been put on notice recently by van Gisbergen's performances on ovals. More than just being less-bad, or even merely achieving competence, SVG has actually been pretty good on the non-road courses this year -- and it's already affecting the big-picture story of the 2026 season. Following a sixth-place run at EchoPark Speedway (a drafting track) two weeks ago and a fifth-place finish at North Wilkesboro Speedway (a short track) on Sunday, van Gisbergen now has seven finishes of 11th or better on non-road courses in 17 starts, with an average finish of 19.3, and Adjusted Points+ index of 97 -- remember, Cup average is 100 -- and a Driver Rating of 67.4, just shy of average (70) there as well. In essence, van Gisbergen has gone from being a significantly below-average driver across all ovals to basically a dead-average one, in less than the span of a season. And he has shown quicker mastery of certain types of ovals. While his numbers at intermediates, though improved, remain below the Cup Series norm -- 21.6 average finish, 77 Adjusted Points+, 58.2 rating -- he has been comfortably above average at both superspeedway/drafting tracks and short tracks, form he showcased in each of the past two weeks:
In all of NASCAR history, it's incredibly rare to see a good road-racer who struggles on ovals suddenly become decent on them over any extended span of races. If we once again look at drivers whose careers began after 1972, only three had shown real road-course ability -- with at least five starts and an Adjusted Points+ above 100 on twisty tracks -- while compiling a genuinely bad record (at least 10 non-road starts and a career Adj. Pts+ below 50) everywhere else, before turning that around with an index of 90 or above over the following 20-race non-road stretch: Similarly, SVG is also one of three historical drivers with an above-average Driver Rating on road courses but an abysmal one (less than 50.0) everywhere else who then posted a rating of at least 65.0 over his next 20 non-road races: The transformation of van Gisbergen from quite-bad to not-bad at ovals has transformed his Chase odds accordingly, as we predicted it would back in mid-May. He currently ranks 14th in the standings with a 54-point cushion over No. 17 Erik Jones, the top driver outside the current cutline. According to my Chase odds forecast model, SVG now has a greater than 90% probability of making the postseason cut -- which would be his second playoff trip, but this time without the benefit of a win-and-in reward for his road-course domination. SVG's near-assured Chase odds are having a ripple effect on the rest of the bubble picture as well. Because of his recent success, in combination with better days from North Wilkesboro winner Joey Logano -- who was also recently sitting on the bubble -- there now is only one Chase slot whose favorite is below 90% to make it in: Austin Cindric in 16th place. That means a dogfight is brewing between Cindric and the next few drivers below the current cutline (Jones, Ryan Preece, Brad Keselowski), all fighting over one fewer available spot than it seemed when SVG's fate was more up in the air. Van Gisbergen, though, doesn't have to worry much about that scrap with five races to go in the regular season. NASCAR's greatest road-course specialist is becoming a more complete racer -- and now everyone else has to worry about what his improvement has done to them instead.