Racing Insights: Which driver will reel in Loudon victory?
It's time for lobster fishing as the NASCAR Cup Series treks to New England for a Sunday contest at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (2 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
The bout at the 1.058-mile track will act as the penultimate race of the 2026 regular season, and with drivers on the bubble jockeying for Chase positioning, the action is surely going to be tense from start to finish. Positioning will be critical; five of the last six New Hampshire races were won from a top-five starting position, with the Stage 1 winner going on to win the last three Loudon contests. That said, the driver starting on the pole has won only once over the last 21 New Hampshire Cup races, so positioning is certainly not the end-all, be-all theme.
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Every point matters, and at this juncture, every maneuver and strategy call could be the difference between capturing a coveted Chase berth -- and perhaps netting the famed lobster trophy -- and going home empty-handed. So, how does Racing Insights project Sunday's race playing out? Let's give it a look, with full race projections from first to 36th.
DRIVERS TO WATCH
SHANE VAN GISBERGEN: Though he dropped to 16th in The Chase standings following action at Richmond Raceway, the 37-year-old Kiwi gained three markers to the cutline. While he is known for his road-course acumen, van Gisbergen has shown marked improvement on ovals and short tracks, with a 14th-place showing at Richmond nothing to scoff at. That said, he finished 32nd in last year's New Hampshire Cup contest -- his only career Cup start there -- so the No. 97 driver isn't out of the woods entirely.
BRAD KESELOWSKI: The No. 6 RFK Racing Ford lost 30 points to The Chase cutline following a 26th-place finish at Richmond, but Loudon could see those fortunes flip for the better. Keselowski has two career victories at New Hampshire to go along with 10 total top fives and 16 top 10s in 25 starts. Experience -- especially in the championship department -- also tends to play here, with 13 of the last 17 Loudon victors being Cup Series champions. Could the 2012 Cup Series champion break out in a big way this weekend?
ROSS CHASTAIN: A 12th-place finish at Richmond resulted in Chastain remaining 18th in the Cup Series table but losing 16 points to the cutline. However, momentum could be on the upswing for the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing driver, who has six top-15 finishes in the last nine races after two such results over the season's first 15 contests. Chastain has four top-10 finishes at New Hampshire in seven career Cup starts, with a best finish of eighth twice.
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