It all comes down to this.
All three NASCAR national series will crown their respective champions this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway -- the first time Championship Weekend has returned to South Florida since 2019. The Craftsman Truck Series kicks things off Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1, FOX One, NASCAR Racing Network Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) with Kaden Honeycutt and Layne Riggs battling for the crown. Five drivers remain in the hotly contested O'Reilly Auto Parts Series hunt for Saturday (5 p.m. ET, The CW, ESPN Unlimited, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), and Kyle Larson looks to clinch his third title in the Cup Series on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
RELATED: Homestead-Miami weekend schedule
See how eligible drivers in all three series can clinch championships this weekend, and how they navigated The Chase presented by Mobil 1.
NOTE: Tiebreakers are determined by the number of best finishes in The Chase. If drivers are tied in wins, it goes to the number of second-place finishes and so on.
Cup Series
KYLE LARSON (leads by 67 points)
How he got here: Earned No. 7 seed. Larson went on a heater as soon as the postseason started, recording top-six finishes and a pair of victories in the first six races. His only misstep came at Phoenix Raceway, where he battled an ill-handling race car before a cut tire resulted in a DNF, but immediately bounced back with a Talladega Superspeedway victory that snapped an 0-for-58 streak in the draft. His ninth-place effort last weekend at Martinsville Speedway wasn't pretty, but the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet team still exited Virginia with a healthy points margin.
How he can clinch: Larson needs just nine points at Homestead, regardless of what any other driver does. He can clinch with eight stage points and can lock up the title early by finishing third or better in Stage 1. Without any stage points, Larson needs to finish 28th or better. He has also secured every tiebreaker scenario. This season, Larson has finished with three or fewer points four times but has never scored fewer than 18 points in 12 Homestead starts. Racing Insights projects Larson's championship odds at 99.4%.
RELATED: Cup Series standings | Martinsville results
CHRISTOPHER BELL (trails by 67 points)
How he got here: Earned No. 6 seed. Bell put seven regular-season runner-up finishes to the wayside in the opener, scoring a crown-jewel Southern 500 victory at Darlington Raceway. He had plenty of speed each week, but was involved in a multicar wreck at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway before suffering a power steering failure at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, resulting in a pair of disappointing finishes. The biggest mistake for the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing team came at Talladega Superspeedway, where he spun entering pit road under green and suffered heavy damage, finishing 35th and failing to score stage points.
How he can clinch: Bell must win and earn at least 14 stage points, or 13 stage points plus the Xfinity Fastest Lap point, to remain in championship contention, depending on Larson's point total. He must finish eighth or better in Stage 1. The most that Bell has outscored Larson in a single race this year is 46 points, and adjusted to the new format, the most he has outscored Larson in a single race is 50.
DENNY HAMLIN (trails by 70 points)
How he got here: Earned No. 1 seed. Hamlin struggled to piece together full races throughout The Chase, surrendering his points lead three races in. His most crucial mistakes came at Las Vegas, where he failed to trap Larson a lap down early with pit strategy gone wrong before a Stage 1 spin, and then a tire issue at Phoenix that resulted in his worst postseason finish of 28th. A spin triggered by Joey Logano that also included Bell at Martinsville didn't help the case either, but six top 10s in nine races is enough for the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team to have a slim chance at Homestead.
How he can clinch: Hamlin must win and earn at least 17 stage points, or 16 stage points plus the Xfinity Fastest Lap point, to remain in championship contention, depending on Larson's point total. He must finish fifth or better in Stage 1. The most that Hamlin has outscored Larson in a single race this year is 43 points, and adjusted to the new format, the most he has outscored Larson in a single race in the stage era is 62.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images[/caption]
O'Reilly Auto Parts Series
JUSTIN ALLGAIER (leads by 22 points)
How he got here: Earned No. 1 seed. Allgaier hasn't quite had the world-beating results like his six regular-season wins, but so far, it's been enough. The No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet finished outside the top 10 in the first two Chase races at Darlington and Gateway, crashing out a few weeks later at Las Vegas. Top fives in the last four races have allowed Allgaier to make up a 31-point deficit in October and head to the finale back in the driver's seat.
How he can clinch: Allgaier controls his own destiny and can secure his second title with 54 points scored, regardless of how his competitors fare. Allgaier currently loses the Chase tiebreaker to each of his four remaining challengers, all of whom have at least one postseason victory.
RELATED: O'Reilly Series standings | Martinsville results
JESSE LOVE (trails by 22 points)
How he got here: Earned No. 4 seed. Love went winless in the regular season, but his No. 2 Richard Childress Racing team put it into gear come the postseason. He won dominant races at Gateway and Phoenix, but a plethora of issues last weekend at Martinsville -- including a crash -- resulted in a 30th-place finish, by far his worst of The Chase after entering with a 19-point series advantage. Late contact with Allgaier resulting in a 17th-place finish at Bristol also proved costly.
How he can clinch: Love controls his own destiny and can secure his second consecutive title with a perfect 76-point day, including the Xfinity Fastest Lap, regardless of how his competitors fare. Several tiebreaker scenarios apply, but Love would win them if he wins the race.
COREY DAY (trails by 23 points)
How he got here: Earned No. 7 seed. Day has exceeded all expectations -- and maybe even his own -- to enter Homestead in the thick of the championship fight. The No. 17 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet has finished inside the top 10 in seven of eight races, and impressive back-to-back victories at Las Vegas and Charlotte trimmed his deficit by 85 points alone. His only misstep came at Gateway, where contact with William Sawalich led to a DNF.
How he can clinch: Day controls his own destiny and can secure the title with a perfect 76-point day, including the Xfinity Fastest Lap, regardless of how his competitors fare. Many different tiebreaker scenarios apply, but Day would win tiebreakers if he wins the race.
CARSON KVAPIL (trails by 31 points)
How he got here: Earned No. 2 seed. Kvapil earned his third victory of the 2026 season and first in The Chase last weekend at Martinsville to jump back into the championship equation. He nearly made it two in a row, leading 67 laps at Talladega the week before but was passed by teammate Sammy Smith on the final lap. Kvapil had plenty of speed throughout the postseason, but the No. 1 JR Motorsports Chevrolet had a loose wheel at Bristol and suffered a mechanical issue at Charlotte, resulting in major setbacks.
How he can clinch: Kvapil can only secure the title with help.
SHELDON CREED (trails by 42 points)
How he got here: Earned No. 3 seed. Creed started The Chase scalding hot, earning a pair of victories and a second-place finish in the first three races. But the No. 00 Haas Factory Team driver scored just one stage point over the next two races before a power steering issue led to a 32nd-place result at Phoenix. Top-six finishes in the last two races kept him in championship contention heading to Homestead.
How he can clinch: Creed can only secure the title with help. Many different tiebreaker scenarios apply, but Creed would win tiebreakers if he wins the race.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images[/caption]
Craftsman Truck Series
KADEN HONEYCUTT (leads by 20 points)
How he got here: Earned No. 2 seed. Honeycutt's postseason has been near-perfect so far, finishing eighth or better in five of the first six races and earning a pair of victories. The only flaw for the No. 11 Tricon Garage Toyota team came last weekend at Martinsville, when late contact from Tristan McKee shuffled Honeycutt out of the top five and to 14th in the running order.
How he can clinch: Honeycutt controls his own destiny and can secure the title with 55 points, regardless of how his competitors fare. He wins every tiebreaker as long as he finishes the race inside the top three.
RELATED: Truck Series standings | Martinsville results
LAYNE RIGGS (trails by 20 points)
How he got here: Earned No. 1 seed. Riggs' postseason got off to a shaky start, but he's found much more even footing as of late. The No. 34 Front Row Motorsports team had a loose wheel in The Chase opener at Bristol, finishing 32nd after late damage. A week later at Kansas, Riggs hit the wall battling Honeycutt for the win, falling to 19th at the checkered flag. In four races since, he's finished inside the top eight each time and picked up a win at Charlotte.
How he can clinch: Riggs controls his own destiny and can secure the title with 75 points, regardless of how his competitors fare. If he wins the race, he'd only lose a tiebreaker if Honeycutt finished second or third.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images[/caption]